Karl Rove's Early Electoral Map: OBAMA WINS

Business Insider ^ | 04/26/2012 | Brett LoGiurato

[SeekAndFind]

Ever since Mitt Romney all but secured the Republican nomination, we were all waiting with bated breath.

Wait no more. Karl Rove has finally put out his inaugural 2012 electoral map. And who's winning?

Barack Obama. Here it is, in all its glory:

Rove.com

You can see there how it breaks down: Right now, 284 votes are either solidly for Obama or "leaning Obama." Romney only has 172 solidly in his grasp or "leaning" toward him. The remaining 82 electoral votes are toss-ups.

What does this mean? Well, first, that Romney has some catching up to do and the gravity of the map he's up against. According to this map, even if Romney wins all the toss-up states of Iowa, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Florida — which could be done — he still wouldn't beat Obama.

[luvbach1]

Rove may be factoring in Demonrat vote fraud (to include under counting of military votes) which is likely to reach unprecedented dimensions this time around. The Osama Obama campaign has an army of 300,000 plotting it right now.

[Signalman]

This is going to be a landslide election and the demonRATS are going to lose so many other seats that the media will be in shock.

Absolutely agree with you. For one thing, unemployment will still be above 8% in November. Obama will lose in a landslide approaching Reagan/Mondale proportions. It's going to shock the wine and cheese crowd on the upper west side of Manhattan.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Obama wins unless we send money to Karl.

[drjimmy]

Business Insider is an idiot, followed closely by those who are posting pissed at Karl Rove. All Rove has done is take an average of current state-by-state public polling to come up with this map. He isn't predicting anything for election day, and the numbers aren't his anyway, since he just lifted them from others.

Anyone who scoffs at Texas being just a "lean" for Romney shouldn't blame Rove. Again, he's just taking current public polling figures, and if the average is a difference between Romney and Obama of only 5-8%, then that state is a "lean." If the polls have a difference of less than 3%, it's a "tossup." These just show that Romney has his work cut out for him not just to win the tossups, but to secure his own leaners and take away Obama's.

And anyone who thinks Romney has a shot at winning New York is smoking some wacky weed.

[Grampa3711]

I can’t even fantasize our republic surviving a second B Hussein term, but unlike NTegraT, I refuse to be petrified. Lincoln reportedly recognized before the 1860s hostilities began, that the animosity had reached the point at which it could not subside until one side or the other prevailed. Could the animosity have been worse then than it is now? I refuse to be petrified, so I practice a lot. Expensive, but “important, if (please “No,” God) needed.

[Jim Robinson]

Smooth move, Rove. Sheer genius. The tea party rebellion was roaring to go and we could have elected ANY conservative Republican and you engineered a RINO defeat.

[Sooth2222]

Rove's job is to raise money for American Crossroads, which would be more difficult if it looks like Romney is a shoo-in.

He's basing the map on the RCP polling, most of which wasn't completed before Romney clinched the nomination, and much of which includes "registered voters", "adults" and "sentient creatures".

I would crawl over burning coals to vote against Obama, even if the Republican nominee were Chumlee from "Pawn Stars" or Snooki from "Jersey Shore". It doesn't matter, I'm voting against Obama. Romney isn't my favorite, but "ABO".

[Justice4awe]

Not gonna happen. I don’t think it will be close. Romney will crush Obama.

[Republic Rocker]

It is early and this thing has NOT even started..... rove is simply putting out a SHOCK message to Republicans to get them to GET UP and get focused. I hope those here at FR are as well because this American can NOT let his family live through another 4 years of this demise. One last note... SUPREME COURT. That is your grandchildren and great grandchildren you are protecting.

[Dan Nunn]

This is the starting map, I’m sure, that Romney’s team also put together.

This is not the “end” map either team believes will transpire.

Exactly, so many on the thread are missing this. Plus, read the whitepaper, the predictions are according to the latest polling average in each state. This isn't Rove bringing out his crystal ball, this is a graphical representation of the polls as they are showing right now.

Stop panicing (or celebrating, for the masochists).

[Theoria]

Romney will lose in a close one. 270 to 268.

[B Knotts]

Rove is wrong again.

No way Obama wins Nevada. Think about it.

For several others, there are arguments to be made each way, but Nevada? C’mon...what’s he going to say will go to Obama next...Idaho? Utah?

[Da Bilge Troll]

Missouri a tossup? LOL!

Missouri voted against B.O. LAST TIME and even so, the “mood” around here was very liberal. No more.

What the media missed about our “Raucous Caucus” here was that the attendance was TEN TIMES all previous experience - and even in the re-do caucus, everyone showed up AGAIN.

Missouri may look like a tossup from inside the beltway to Rove but then, Rove is an idiot.

[Colonel_Flagg]

And for helping shape today’s Republican Party which can’t bring about an electoral majority against the worst President in American history, we can thank ...

... Karl Rove.

[x]

His analysis does not square with just about everything else I’ve read. He’s giving states to Obama that are squarely up in the air or leaning Republican.

I'd say he's making states a Republican will probably carry into leaning Republican or toss-up states. But taking into account the advantages of incumbency, I'd say Obama stands a pretty good chance of carrying OH, PA, and MI. It's certainly not a lock, but a Republican will have to work hard to win those states.

Here's an alternative map that may be more plausible:

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Your map

So, Democratic states are now red and Republican states are now blue? When did that happen?

[B Knotts]

Nevada? Indiana? And Romney winning Vermont? And splitting Nebraska?

Uh...I don't think so. My map has Romney 311, Obama 227. But a lot can change.

I'm pretty sure Obama will win Vermont before he wins Indiana, though.

[Theoria]

It just happened to be the map program that I used. As a whole though, I always found it odd that the traditional conservative color of blue was placed on dems and the red of socialism placed on the gop.

[Theoria]

Yeah, looking now, I really screwed up on a lot of them. It won’t be a landslide for Obama, no matter what.

[matthew fuller]

"Hell, Texas is only “leaning Romney”. That’s just stupid. No way Texas goes Obama. "

It's just a matter of time and demographics. Texas WILL flip to the blue side eventually. Mexicans outbreed whites and blacks.