Posted on 03/22/2012 10:45:00 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush might want Republicans to unite behind the Romney banner after his big Illinois win on Tuesday, but Louisiana Republicans have other ideas. In Rasmussen’s new poll before the state’s closed primary on Saturday, Rick Santorum has a 12-point lead, and by 20 points in a two man race — even though almost three-quarters of the likely voters surveyed think Romney will win the nomination anyway:
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is comfortably ahead in Louisiana with that state’s Republican Primary just two days away.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in Louisiana finds Santorum with a 12-point lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney – 43% to 31%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich who has pinned his hopes on capturing other Southern states beyond South Carolina and his native Georgia runs a distant third with 16% support. Texas Congressman Ron Paul comes in last with five percent (5%). One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording,click here.)
Highlighting Santorum’s continued strength in states with large numbers of conservative voters, he leads Romney 57% to 37% in a one-on-one matchup in Louisiana.
Santorum’s numbers look solid in the internals, too. He has almost identical leads among men (42/32) and women (43/30), and leads every age and income demo, although only edging Romney by two among seniors, those earning under $20K, and those earning between $40-60K. Romney wins “somewhat conservative” and “other” voters by six and eight points respective, but Santorum carries “very conservative” by 26 points, 49/23. While Romney has been winning the Catholic vote, he loses it in Louisiana by ten points, and evangelicals by 28 points, as one might expect.
Newt Gingrich has parked himself in the Pelican State in a last-ditch effort to regain some momentum, but this poll has nothing but bad news for him. He trails badly with 16% of the vote; Romney beats him almost 2-1 in second place. He’s viewed favorably by Louisiana Republicans, 68/29, but Santorum’s favorability is 84/14 and Romney’s is 72/27. There isn’t much room for him to get traction against either candidate in front of him, and a poor third-place showing in the South would probably mean the end of his campaign, especially if he can’t win any delegates in Louisiana. A shutout would end whatever credibility he has left as a candidate even in a delegate-gathering sense.
In fact, this poll suggests that no big surprises will occur on Saturday. With 88% of voters firm in their selection, there isn’t enough voters to change, barring a last-minute gaffe by Santorum. That will give Santorum a little bit of momentum heading into the ten-day break and allow him to put off calls to concede the race on the grounds of party unity until April at the earliest. Given that 73% of the respondents expect Romney to get the nomination but only 31% want to vote for him, Santorum has at least some basis for sticking around a little longer.
The conservatives are not yet finished speaking their minds!
Louisianans do not take instruction well from condescending carpetbaggers. Of those who remain, I favor Newt, but I hope Santorum beats bishop Willard like a drum.
I think it is time for rick to step aside so Romney can get his a$$ handed to him in the states he is managing to carry. does anyone think Romney will beat Obama in IL of all places? the place to beat obama is in the red states. Romney can’t beat rick in those states.
While I think Romney is going to win the nomination I don’t think he has much of a chance of beating Obama.
Southern states such as MS, AL, LA etc will go red anyways regardless of the nominee. The only states which matter in November are FL, OH, CO, WI, NV, PA, MI etc. GOP voters would be smart to pick a nominee who will do best in those states.
What are the next primaries and caucuses on the schedule before the convention?....anybody have a list?.......
Glad to know I can save some gas money and stay home in November here in Mississippi when the only option is Willard.
Wait for more averages, with several more to weigh in, in the coming week.
Since LA is a closed, proportional, (46 delegates) the Democrats can't prank this primary. And Santorum will need to have more than a 25 point lead, to hope for any kind of an upset.
According to the few averages in, Santorum has 35% to Romney's 25%, which means 17 delegates to Santo, 12 to Romney, 19% to Newt, 5% to Paul.
See if this set of numbers is not more realistic when it is all said and done.
Oh, you will save lots and lots of money alright, when Obama gets his second term.........(MEGA SARC.)
As a Newt supporter, this article makes me want to break out the alcohol.
And I don’t drink!
ya got that right...Mandeville, La here...can’t wait till Saturday.....Newt has two votes here with this family
Intersting that Romney is favored in the states that Obama will win and he is being rejected in the conservative states. Yet, somehow the establishment RINOs see that as a winning candidate????
Go Rick!
You guys are behind the times, here in WA state we vote 100% by mail. NO ID required to vote! Much easier to cheat!!
If Rick steps aside, Romney wins the nomination outright. He would carry most of the remaining states by >50%.
Momentum in WI? You betcha. But I am waiting for my marching orders from the campaign and haven’t received them yet.
Guys: Listen up. 12 days!!!
that would be romney. he will loose the general.
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