Halftime (email from Newt2012)

Newt's senior adviser Randy Evans was on CNN this week explaining the delegate math that he outlined in his recent strategy memo . The bottom line is that halftime of the Republican nomination process is the Louisiana primary on March 24. Despite what the Romney campaign, the Washington Establishment, and the elite media want you to believe, this race is far from over.

With no candidate remotely close to 1,144 delegates, the magic number needed to secure the nomination, the nomination will not be decided until the fourth quarter.

That's why Mike Huckabee and others are saying it would be foolish for Newt to drop out. Here's what Governor Huckabee said on Laura Ingraham's show yesterday:

Political Scientist Jamie Hunter agrees, writing that Newt brings enthusiasm to the race and a focus on issues that the other candidates are ignoring.

This race is going to be decided by a big debate - a big choice - among GOP primary voters about the future of the Republican Party; what it stands for, and which candidate has the most compelling vision and most credibility to carry forward a conservative governing agenda.

That is the debate Newt is going to win, and with your generous support today, the nomination and the election.

I think this is what you are thinking of...

Dear Rooster,
The Romney Campaign, Washington Establishment, and elite media are all trying to prematurely end the Republican primary. But in reality, it's not even halftime. In the memo below, Newt 2012 political director Martin Baker and senior advisor Randy Evans breakdown the state-by-state delegate math and explain why Newt is well positioned for the second half.
Michael Krull Campaign Director Newt 2012
_____________
An Historical Nomination Process Underway by Randy Evans, Senior Advisor and Martin Baker, National Political Dir.
Notwithstanding the conventional wisdom that dominates the news media, Newt Gingrich is well positioned to win the GOP nomination and here's why.
Today's contests in Alabama, American Samoa, Hawaii, and Mississippi are big, but it's still early. Louisiana, on March 24th, will actually be "halftime" in the race for the GOP nomination.
Heading into Louisiana, states with delegates totaling 1,141 will have decided - just short of the 1,144 needed for the nomination. It will be Louisiana that moves the process past the halfway mark with 34 states accounting for 1,187 delegates having been voted.
Yet by halftime, the process will be far from over. Just look at the math.
One half of the 1,144 delegates needed for the nomination is 572. To date, according to the RNC and factoring in results from Kansas and Wyoming on Saturday, Mitt Romney has only 350 bound delegates. Between, now and Louisiana, there are only 170 total bound delegates available - and that count includes Missouri whose delegates, while bound, will actually be elected at conventions later this spring.
Even if Romney could get 100% of the available bound delegates before Louisiana (which he cannot), he would still be well short of 572. Instead, with the proportional allocations that apply, Mitt Romney's more likely 57 additional delegates would only put him at 407 total delegates (35.6%) - well short of the 572 needed to be halfway to the magic number.
With a steady 35% of delegates and no change in sight, the fact that Romney advisers have undoubtedly told him is that he can no longer force his nomination. Mathematically, the numbers are just not there. Instead, with 4 candidates remaining, the GOP nomination now moves into unchartered waters with history in the making.
The sequencing and pace of the second half favors Newt. When this process started, Newt's team had two goals: block an early Romney nomination; and plan for a sequenced and paced second half.
Newt stopped Romney in South Carolina and subsequentlyweathered a multi-million dollar barrage of attacks in Florida, surviving to win in Georgia on Super Tuesday.
Starting with Louisiana, there is the second half and the sequence is important.
After Louisiana on March 24th, there are primaries on April 3rd in the District of Columbia (winner take all without Santorum on the ballot); Maryland (a favorable state); and Wisconsin (Callista Gingrich's home state).
Then, the process slows - permitting all of the candidates to work the states, not just the one with money.
On April 24th, more than four weeks after Louisiana, Senator Santorum faces a 'must win' in Pennsylvania (whose delegates remain unbound regardless of outcome) with other big contests that day in Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island and delegate rich New York (95).
Two weeks later, on May 8th, there are more southern primaries in North Carolina and West Virginia along with Indiana. On May 15, there are primaries in Nebraska and Oregon.
Then, the delegate rich 3-week dash that could decide the nomination begins with more southern primaries in Arkansas and Kentucky on May 22nd. They lead into Texas (155 delegates) on May 29th.
After 2 weeks of southern primaries, the process then turns on June 5th to California (172 delegates), New Jersey (50), New Mexico and South Dakota. California and New Jersey alone represent almost 20% of the delegates needed for the nomination.
In total, the states in this final 3 week stretch have 509 total delegates - or almost half of what is needed for the nomination. The final primary (Utah) is not for three weeks afterwards on June 26.
So here is the bottom-line reality: this nomination will not be decided until the fourth quarter - and that is not until June. It also means that the candidate who closes strongest in this race is going to win.
It is a long way until June 26th. Republicans indeed get to be a part of history, not more of the same.
So buckle up. This race is not going to be won or lost over backroom deals or endless and mind-numbing discussions in the media over delegate counts. This race is going to be decided by a big debate - a big choice - among GOP primary voters about the future of the Republican Party; what it stands for, and which candidate has the most compelling vision and most credibility to carry forward a conservative governing agenda.
That is the debate Newt is going to win, and with it, the nomination and the election.

Gingrich should stay in the race simply because any one of the candidates could have a moment where they slip up and the opening will be created.

Everything Newt's camp has been putting out is predicated on this one idea...that Romney and/or Santorum will "slip up" and give Newt an opening. That's how bad the math is for them right now.

there are primaries on April 3rd in the District of Columbia (winner take all without Santorum on the ballot); Maryland (a favorable state); and Wisconsin (Callista Gingrich's home state).

They're also counting on the "Callista factor."

Senator Santorum faces a 'must win' in Pennsylvania (whose delegates remain unbound regardless of outcome)

And we just saw an article saying Pennsylvania has the delegate slate stacked with their party insiders who are favoring Romney. Ron Paul's actually had a plan to hijack delegates from the party bosses since before the primary started and that was as far-fetched an idea as this.

So here is the bottom-line reality: this nomination will not be decided until the fourth quarter - and that is not until June.

At the current trajectory, that is probably when Romney will hit 1,144. Interestingly, even if all the states were winner-take-all, he just the same wouldn't have hit it until the last 5 states or so. That's how weak a candidate he is. The weakest in 35 years at least.

I'd like to hear a better strategy than Newt is offering (Romney/Santorum collapse on their own + Callista coattails). The only strategy that delegate counting analysis has sown might work is Newt dropping out and/or getting all his voters to vote for Santorum instead. That way, Santorum can block maybe 100-250 delegates from Romney that Romney would otherwise get, thanks to the many winner-take-all rules in upcoming states that account for 2/3rds of the remaining delegates. And that would make the difference to throwing the nomination to the convention.

Newt’s voters aren’t going to go to Santorum, who is exactly like Romney but more vocally a social conservative. Romney and Santorum are both Establishment guys, that is, absolutely fine with things the way they are and differing from Obama only in a few touches. Like Obama, they are both looking to transform the US into the ultimate socialist nanny-welfare state, with the only difference being that it will have their (Mormon or Evangelical-Catholic) slogans at the top.

The only candidate who is offering any ideas for change is Gingrich, and he should stay in until the very end.

Sadly, though, I think the voters are saying they actually like Obama’s Socialist Republic of the United States of America and they just want a different face on it. So it depends on whether they want the dollar-stuffed Mormon vulture capitalist and failed governor of the most leftist state in the US, or the self-serving Preacher Man who as a Senator endorsed the most radical pro-abortion leftist in the Senate (who eventually got honest and became a Dem) and who was voted out by an astounding number of his own constituents.

You're not getting it. I am a Newt supporter, not a Romney or Santorum supporter. If Newt stays in the race, Romney wins in June. The ONLY chance to throw it to the convention is for either Newt or Rick to get out.

You shouldn't assume Newt supporters would go to Santorum. More likely they'd split between Mitt and Rick. A Gallup poll today shows that very thing - Romney and Santorum tie as Gingrich voters' second choice.

Here on FR, most of us who support Gingrich would likely grudgingly, some very grudgingly, move to Santorum - but that doesn't look to be the case amongst the majority of Newt's supporters in the real world.

What perhaps you don't get is that many of us feel both Romney and Santorum are awful. I'd rather Newt stay in and pray for a miracle (one of either Romney or Santorum self destructing) than support Mitt or Rick. In my mind Gingrich is the only reasonable alternative we have. So far, GOP primary voters don't agree. Fine. I will vote for the eventual nominee, but I don't like either Romney or Santorum. Romney is a terrible candidate and would likely lose narrowly. Santorum is marginally better if he can keep from yammering on about how contraception is "not okay" and avoid declaring war on porn - but he'd lose in a massive landslide and I see no reason to rush into supporting a sure loser.

If Newt drops out and his support splits between Romney and Gingrich it would only help Mitt win faster - and that is what I think would happen. Even polling that exists which shows Santorum capturing more of Newt's support doesn't tell the whole story. In a strictly 2 man race the dynamics completely change, Santorum gets even more scrutiny and may just implode faster under the spotlight.

The whole thing really just sucks and is seriously depressing. If I really believed that Newt had some chance of being the nominee in a brokered/contested election by dropping out now, I might go along. I simply don't believe that. I think if Gingrich gives up, Romney only wins faster. As of now, I'd prefer to draw things out and hope either Romney or Santorum blow up their campaigns by saying or doing something idiotic - and it is a distinct possibility for either of them. I'm clinging to hope here!

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