FoxNews Chicago IL GOP Poll (Romney 37% Santorum 31% Newt 14%)

Fox Chicago News ^ | 03-16-2012 | Mike Flannery

[parksstp]

Chicago - The Republican race for president looks like a two-man contest in Illinois Thursday night.

Mitt Romney is ahead of Rick Santorum among Illinois Republicans, even after Santorum’s big victories in Alabama and Mississippi on Tuesday. But Santorum is within striking distance for next Tuesday's primary.

An exclusive FOX Chicago News poll found a six point lead for Romney among those likely to vote in the March 20 presidential primary.

Romney had the support of 37 percent on Wednesday. Rick Santorum earned 31 percent of the vote.

[parksstp]

Like IA, Mid/Downstate IL is seeing population decreases. Theoretically, there's about 50 counties Santorum can take. He probably has to win each of those by 500-1000 votes to offset northern IL (have him down 30,000 votes in Cook, 12,000 in lake), etc, but even then, there's probably not enough conservatives in the state. He's probably topped at 37-38% and Romney will be junst under 45%, with Newt around 7 or 8, and Paul the rest.

[throwback]

Looks like Ohio. Big surprise. Not sure what Gingrich is doing, but it's still obvious he can't go north while Santorum can go south. One thing in Santorum's favor is most of Romney's supporters aren't that enthusiastic to begin with and now they've been told for weeks that Romney is inevitable, so they may not show. Romney should be careful trying to bluff people out of the race by contending he's inevitable, because voters won't show for him if they are convinced of that.

[Vigilanteman]

The Newtbots, nonetheless, will stick with Newt because Rick Santorum has minor imperfections as a conservative and Newt has none.

[servantboy777]

I hate to say it, but it’s time for Newt and Paul to drop out.

[parksstp]

ping!

[Thunder90]

Whatever. If Romney can’t crack 50% in a state like Illinois when he is calling himself the inevitable candidate, he has SERIOUS problems.

[org.whodat]

Since Rick has out performed the polls time and again, try a magic eight ball for predictions.

[gitmogrunt]

Politics as usual fools the American electorate one more time.

[JediJones]

This looks like the state where the split conservative vote can do some of the most damage.

This state is direct delegate election by district. That means just like with Clinton/Bush/Perot, whichever candidates’ delegates get the most votes in that district win. They don’t need 50% or a majority, just the highest amount of votes. Romney will walk away with all 69 delegates if this poll holds across all counties. Yet if Newt’s votes went to Rick, Rick would walk away with all 69 delegates.

Losing this state’s delegates is a loss we probably can’t afford to take if we want to stop Romney from winning the nomination. There will probably be no contested convention if he gets more than half of the Illinois delegates. Every single delegate counts and given all the upcoming states Romney is guaranteed to do strong in, we need to win these “swing” states decisively to beat him.

[stars & stripes forever]

it’s time for Newt and Paul to drop out...

for the good of the nation.

[Carry_Okie]

Get it straight Newtsters: Sheldon Adelson has taken you for suckers.

[MichaelCorleone]

“I hate to say it, but it’s time for Newt and Paul to drop out.”

Agreed. At this juncture, they’ve made their points and only ego is causing them to ‘hang on’.

[Proud2BeRight]

Illinois is being bombarded with massive pro-Romney robocalls, media ads, and glowing commentary on even the “conservative” talk radio station. The only thing mentioning Santorum or Gingrich is highly negative. I have not heard a single positive ANYTHING from or about Santorum. NOTHING.

[Dr. Sivana]

He probably has to win each of those by 500-1000 votes to offset northern IL (have him down 30,000 votes in Cook, 12,000 in lake),

I live in Ogle County, northern IL around, and even in, Rockford is going Santorum.

Not all of northern IL is greater Chicago.

[Dr. Sivana]

Romney will walk away with all 69 delegates if this poll holds across all counties. Yet if Newt’s votes went to Rick, Rick would walk away with all 69 delegates.

False assumption. Outside of greater Chicago and maybe Champaign and Peoria, the rest of the state votes like Nebraska or Indiana. Romney will probably crack 50% in Chicago. He won't crack 30% in large swaths of the downstate and NW area.

[Dr. Sivana]

I have not heard a single positive ANYTHING from or about Santorum. NOTHING.

My wife and kids just saw him 2 hours ago at the Rockford Holiday Inn. He's crossing the state in a bus today. It is true that he has no money for an air war, which makes his wins and close calls more impressive.

[Theodore R.]

It seems that Newton is again playing the role of Perot. Is Perot one of his contributors, or is Perot with Obama?

[Theodore R.]

Romney doesn’t have to get 50 percent anywhere, does he? It’s delegates that count, and he has the inside track, with Newton helping Romney.

[Theodore R.]

Is IL Mormon friendly? Is Nauvoo still a Mormon enclave?

[parksstp]

Feels like it though.

In 08, Romney ran well in the Quads area and along the MO/IL border counties. However, it’s hard to tell what support is actually still intact because at the time, he was garnering a strong Anti-McCain vote.

Turnout will be key. If it’s low in the North, Santorum may not have to make up as much as Romney did when he was blown out by McCain.

If Rockford is truly purple (CNN’s Santorum color), then Santorum will be in good shape. I have my doubts about that area though.