[Dr. Sivana]

Romney will walk away with all 69 delegates if this poll holds across all counties. Yet if Newt’s votes went to Rick, Rick would walk away with all 69 delegates.

False assumption. Outside of greater Chicago and maybe Champaign and Peoria, the rest of the state votes like Nebraska or Indiana. Romney will probably crack 50% in Chicago. He won't crack 30% in large swaths of the downstate and NW area.

[Theodore R.]

Is IL Mormon friendly? Is Nauvoo still a Mormon enclave?

[cliffco]

Romney’s a phoney!

[JediJones]

False assumption. Outside of greater Chicago and maybe Champaign and Peoria, the rest of the state votes like Nebraska or Indiana. Romney will probably crack 50% in Chicago. He won't crack 30% in large swaths of the downstate and NW area.

Then it will all depend how the districts are divided. If no district has Romney between 30% and 50%, then the vote-splitting between Newt and Rick won't make a difference. There would be no way to defeat Romney in the 50%+ districts and one of our guys would already beating him in his 30%- districts. But if any district represents the spread in this poll or another spread where Romney is between 30-45%, then our vote splitting will hand him delegates. If he continues being able to get half the delegates from big states like this (and Pennsylvania, West Virginia, California, Texas, Wisconsin, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana), then there's probably no path to stopping him from winning the nomination by June.