Posted on 03/14/2012 8:40:27 AM PDT by Iron Munro
Despite his losses in the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, Mitt Romney appears to have expanded his delegate lead on Tuesday.
The most recent projections from AP show Rick Santorum took 31 delegates from Alabama and Mississippi, while Newt Gingrich took 24 delegates and Romney got 23
But this morning, Romney was projected to win all nine delegates from American Samoa’s caucuses, and he also won the Hawaii caucuses by a large margin.
AP projections show Romney beat Santorum 18 delegates to four in those jurisdictions.
So, as of this morning, Romney has won 41 delegates from Tuesday’s contests, compared to 35 for Santorum, thereby expanding Romney’s delegate lead. (Gingrich is projected to have won 24 delegates.)
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Romney thus far has won 52% of the delegates. If he continues on that track, he will win the nomination.
And, unless the splitting of the vote and thereby, because of the rules, the delegates, stop, he will do so.
As a reult of splitting the conservative vote into two smaller factions, Romney is able, with very disciplined campaigning where he gets the most delegate for his popular votes, to gain delegates at a greater proportion to his popular vote.
And that is exactly what he has been doing. He has 38.5% of the popular vote (12 point ahead of Santorum, but well behind Santorum and Newt combined). But, with that 38.5% of the popular vote, he has been able to win 52% of the delegates and thus is on the path to getting nominated.
See the following site for all the details and my resulting analysis:
The GOP Primary Tracker Site
http://www.jeffhead.com/GOPTracker.htm
I think SoCon has it right Jedi. I’m not an expert, but it looks as though there’s only 8 WTA states, and they seem relatively small with respect to delegates. If Newt or Rick were to drop out Romney will get a good number of delegates in big states like California.
dfwgator wrote:
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Last night was proof that Conservatives will NOT vote for Romney, and he is dead in the General without their support.
He can win the Nomination, but he has no shot in the General.
>>
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Exactly! The GOP establishment has taken its conservative base for granted for WAY too long and we’re simply not going to accept being told to support their hand-picked squishy milquetoast moderate candidates any longer.
Thank you.
“I believe that the party leadership would rather offend the conservative base and guarantee an insider wins (even if that insider is more likely to be Obama) than risk having a nominee who will genuinely cut government and risk cutting their power.”
I agree. The institutional GOP’s efforts for the past year and a half have been aimed towards neutralizing the Tea Party rather than the defeating Democrats or Democrat policy.
“Romney thus far has won 52% of the delegates. If he continues on that track, he will win the nomination.”
Take out Virginia, where Newt and Rick weren’t even on the ballot and he went head-to-head with Uncle Nutso, and what percentage has Mittens won? I think about 10% of Mittens’ total delegates are from that farce.
I thought California was WTA by congressional district? Maybe I don’t understand what that means. What does that mean?
“Exactly! The GOP establishment has taken its conservative base for granted for WAY too long and we’re simply not going to accept being told to support their hand-picked squishy milquetoast moderate candidates any longer.”
I disagree only in that Bishop Willard is not a moderate. His record is leftist. He governed further to the left than Bill Clinton. Incredible, but true.
“Both Newt and Rick need to stay in the race, primarily, to keep Rick honest and in the game to the end.”
Interesting. I have very mixed feelings about Gingrich remaining in the race. This is the best rationale for doing so that I have seen.
I looked at your website.
Your math may or may not be right (i.e., Florida and others apportionment is not settled at this moment).
However, Your political acument is lacking: “With Gingrich’s “southern strategy” now in a shambles (He has won two (Georigia and South Carolina), Romney has won two (Florida and Virginia) and Santorum has won three (Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama)), the pressure on Gingrich to unite behind Santorum is going to grow in both strength and urgency. Seven southern states votes and Santorum is leading the pack with three and Romney and Gingrich with two each in the south.”
No-indeedy. Romney’s Florida and Virginia have not been “Southern” for a long, long time. They may have been part of the Confederacy, but their demographics belie their geographic positions. Romney cannot win in “the South”. Period.
They just need to keep Romney under 1,000 delegates
Losing Alabama and Mississippi is going to hurt his fundraising even more than it already is.
Gotta love it anytime he comes in 3rd
I think the GOP bigwigs conceded 2012 before the primaries even started. I think Romney is the designated loser.
That’s why it is so important for Newt and Rick to stay in. Both staying in denies Romney a larger % of delegates in big states like California than he would get if it was one on one. IMO anyway. As I said I’m not an expert, but it appears to me that the proportional states to come are more significant than the WTA states.
But he did take Virginia and that’s what happened. It is about 10% (a little less ) of his total...but even then he would be far ahead.
Like last night, Alabama and Mississippi were wins for Santorun, but not by much and heavily split. He ended up with the wins and with 31 delegates to Romney’s 23. but then in Hawaii and Samoa, Romney added like 21 or 22 delegates more to Santorum’s 2-3 and so Romney added significantly more to his lead.
That’s they way it will continue to go IMHO unless Newt and Rick make a deal.
“Both Newt and Rick need to stay in the race”
If that happens it’s unlikely that either one of them will win any of the winner-take-all states you listed.
Your strategy can prolong the race but will not change the final outcome. The only way to change the final outcome is if the losing candidates begin to drop out.
Just looking at your scenario, if Romney takes the 8 winner-take-all states and wins only 30% of the vote in the proportional races that already puts him over the top with 1174 delegates.
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