[Jeff Head]

Romney thus far has won 52% of the delegates. If he continues on that track, he will win the nomination.

And, unless the splitting of the vote and thereby, because of the rules, the delegates, stop, he will do so.

As a reult of splitting the conservative vote into two smaller factions, Romney is able, with very disciplined campaigning where he gets the most delegate for his popular votes, to gain delegates at a greater proportion to his popular vote.

And that is exactly what he has been doing. He has 38.5% of the popular vote (12 point ahead of Santorum, but well behind Santorum and Newt combined). But, with that 38.5% of the popular vote, he has been able to win 52% of the delegates and thus is on the path to getting nominated.

See the following site for all the details and my resulting analysis:

The GOP Primary Tracker Site
http://www.jeffhead.com/GOPTracker.htm

[SaxxonWoods]

Thank you.

[order66.exe]

“Romney thus far has won 52% of the delegates. If he continues on that track, he will win the nomination.”

Take out Virginia, where Newt and Rick weren’t even on the ballot and he went head-to-head with Uncle Nutso, and what percentage has Mittens won? I think about 10% of Mittens’ total delegates are from that farce.

[SoConPubbie]

Romney thus far has won 52% of the delegates. If he continues on that track, he will win the nomination.

Respectfully, you are incorrect.

1. Currently he needs 46% of the remaining delagates to win the nomination outright.
2. As he loses more and more of the remaining non-Winner-Take-All states or simply wins in the 20% to 30% range, that number will climb to close to 60%
3. There are only 8 winner-take-all state primaries left with only 388 delegates combined.
4. As the false perception that Romney is both inevitable and the only one that can win wears off, and it is wearing off with his string of recent losses, this will put pressure on his ability to win big in the rest of the races.
5. Both Newt and Rick need to stay in the race in order to ensure that all delegates that can be taken away from Mitt can be taken away. Additionally, Newt needs to stay in the race to ensure that Rick does not pre-maturely give up and throw the election to Mitt.

Romney can't win, not outright, he'll have to convince everyone at a brokered convention.

[Nabber]

I looked at your website.

Your math may or may not be right (i.e., Florida and others apportionment is not settled at this moment).

However, Your political acument is lacking: “With Gingrich’s “southern strategy” now in a shambles (He has won two (Georigia and South Carolina), Romney has won two (Florida and Virginia) and Santorum has won three (Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama)), the pressure on Gingrich to unite behind Santorum is going to grow in both strength and urgency. Seven southern states votes and Santorum is leading the pack with three and Romney and Gingrich with two each in the south.”

No-indeedy. Romney’s Florida and Virginia have not been “Southern” for a long, long time. They may have been part of the Confederacy, but their demographics belie their geographic positions. Romney cannot win in “the South”. Period.