Posted on 03/04/2012 8:56:20 AM PST by red flanker
Contra Michigan, early voting may save Santorum in TN. Basically a 3 way tie among election day voters, but he's up with early ones.
You are right, Leopold is just too stupid to argue with. I have now seen another post of his,hers, whatever - about a ‘mandate” in Missouri. Exit polls in Missouri showed many Santorum voters, maybe more than half, not sure, would have voted for Newt had he been on the ballot. Now THATS what I call a “mandate.” /s
The Santorum folks like Leopold are just deluding themselves. At some point, they will find out their guy is not liked at all. I just hope its BEFORE he wins a nomination. If it’s after that, we are all so screwed.
Likely Republican Primary Voters Mar 1-32012Were there any numbers in the PPP tweet?Santorum 35% Romney 31% Gingrich 20% Paul 9% Other 1% Undecided 4%
Likely Republican Primary Voters Mar 1-3 2012So we can see some movement among the late deciders, but not close to a 3-way tie.Total: Santorum 35% Romney 31% Gingrich 20% Paul 9% Early Vote: (19%) Santorum 47% Romney 35% Gingrich 11% Paul 7% Will Vote: (81%) Santorum 32% Romney 30% Gingrich 23% Paul 9%
And if they are right about preliminary votes, it would be hard for Gingrich to come back if 20% of the vote is cast and he was 35 points behind in that 20%.
I hate early voting. That's why Romney won Michigan.
Unfortunately, if unbound delegates really vote however they feel like, we are sunk, because they’ll vote Romney.
So we have to hope they vote for the preference winners.
I have no particular argument with that notion. I don’t know who these are and I don’t know all the rules about binding and non binding, but it would follow that they are somewhat establishment types.
At this moment, Santorum has more total votes than Gingrich. Again, that is meaningless, it’s delegates that count, but your post talked about ‘teeny tiny’ state wins suggesting a vote count could matter, so in that reference Santorum is in 2nd place in total votes.
The more critical problem is that conservatives have had only ONE primary victory. We have won some caucuses, and we won the non-binding Missouri primary, but that doesn’t count. Romney won New Hampshire, Florida, and Michigan, while Newt won South Carolina. That’s it for primaries.
Oops, Arizona was a primary as well, and Romney won that one too.
I know there's a good explanation for that -- but it just sounds so wrong, like I'm reading a "Move-On" press release or something. :-)
When did Santorum move to second in total votes? I didn’t think there would be enough votes cast in Washington to move it (but I have not seen a total since before Washington).
Tennessee early voting has definitely been sparse in my county just outside of Nashville. I was the only one there to case my vote on Saturday afternoon, and in speaking with several of the workers, that’s been typical.
We shall see. I’m trying to get out the votes for Newt that I can.
I’ve already early voted for Newt. Unless you can get me a 2nd and 3rd opportunities everybody who has yet to vote on Tuesday better get their a$$ in gear.
Another tie would be interesting, 3 way instead of 2 way like in Michigan and Washington State
a one state tidal wave?
bump
Some of you need to read the polls. Gingrich is so far behind if Santorum collapses, Newt doesn’t win. Romney does.
Not good...I hope Newt pulls it out instead of Rick, but it is rather late here.
Michigan and Washington were really ties if you go by delegates
hoosiermama wrote:
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If you have a link we could send it to MSM and talk show hosts still today, just in case they haven’t seen it.
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Good idea! Here’s the link:
Washington was a two way tie? I understand Rick finished 3rd behind Romney and Ron Paul. So much for the big win Santorum supporters were forecasting last week.
Newt will win Georgia, Tennesse and Oklahoma. He’ll do well in Ohio. On March 10 he’ll do well in Kansas. On March 13 he’ll win Alabama and Mississippi. Rick is fading fast. Newt has the message and momentum. Good luck Tuesday!
At least a 2-state tidal wave; maybe more.
Remember, Tennessee neighbors Georgia. Newt has long been the favorite in his home state, but the pertinent point is that polls have shown a steady increase in Newt’s margin of victory in Georgia. And judging from the surrogates that Newt is sending to Oklahoma (Herman Cain, JC Watts) it looks like the campaign thinks there’s a good chance to pick up delegates there, even if Newt does not outright win that Oklahoma.
And then there’s ‘bama and Mississippi a week from Super Tuesday.
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