Posted on 02/01/2012 10:33:16 PM PST by MamaDearest
A new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) shows that while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is sewing up the Republican nomination, the process is dragging him down in key swing states — PPP numbers from Ohio show that a 56 percent majority of general election voters now view Romney unfavorably, which leads to a seven point deficit in a matchup with President Obama.
Obama leads Romney 49 - 42 in the new Ohio poll, a state where the political ground has shifted greatly over the last few months. After the massive defeat of SB 5, the anti-union legislation pushed by state Republicans, Obama has seen a major turnaround in his numbers on the ground.
Back in October, PPP’s President Dean Debnam said that were the election to have been held then, Obama would have lost. PPP’s analysis at the time suggested it would be hard to see more support coming to the president as the election got closer. The SB 5 vote moved the state back toward Obama in PPP’s November poll, resulting in a nine point lead, and it seems that trend is continuing into the new year.
“The race in Ohio is going to get closer because there are so many more undecided Republicans than Democrats,” PPP pollster Tom Jensen wrote in a email to TPM. “But it does look like Obama’s chances at matching his 3-4 point victory in the state from 2008 are pretty good right now. John Kasich [Ohio’s Gov. and chief proponent of SB 5] has really hurt the Republican brand in the state and the economy’s getting better. Romney’s not popular enough to overcome those two factors if they persist through November.”
Obama’s approval in Ohio is now locked at a near majority of 48, while Romney has run into problems with general election voters there. Besides the negative 28 - 56 split on Romney’s favorability, fellow Republicans view him positively by a mere seven point margin, and independent voters are well down at 30 - 53.
Obama wins independent voters by five points, and while Republicans aren’t ready to completely support Romney just yet, he takes eighty percent of them in general election matchup. That’s expected during a contested primary, as PPP’s polling of the Republican field in Ohio actually showed former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with a one point lead in a GOP trial heat, so Republican support would likely climb should Romney become of the nominee.
It’s also worth noting that other pollsters, like Quinnipiac University, don’t see the same extreme negative split on favorability as PPP does, showing it about even. “It’s partly because the Quinnipiac Poll is old and Romney’s favorability numbers have worsened in most polling since then,” Jensen wrote. “But we also tend to show higher unfavorability numbers for politicians on both sides of the aisle than live interview pollsters. People are just more willing to tell us that they don’t like people.”
There’s room for growth for Obama as well. He gets about 77 percent of the African-American vote in Ohio in the current PPP poll, far from the 97 percent of the black vote he saw in 2008 exit polls from CNN.
Clearly if voting blocs on either side start moving to their traditional positions within this most crucial of swing states, things will get tighter. But Obama’s fortunes in the state have improved since the depths of last summer, and the post-SB 5 picture in Ohio looks increasingly challenging for Republicans.
Well so much for Romney’s electability factor! Maybe eacn and everyone of us just shouldn’t worry about that anymore and just vote for the candidate(s) we like best!
>> while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is sewing up the Republican nomination
Take that premise and shove it.
Frank, That’s brilliant :-)
Using the “Family Truckster” station wagon
from National Lampoons “vacation”. LOL
http://www.roadsideamerica.com/story/18242
Romney and his staff don’t relate well to Mayberry, they just don’t understand or speak the language. It’s going to hurt him and hurt the party.
LOL!!!! That’s close... Still waiting for my version... : )
Yes the same writer proably reported on the Rumble in the Jungle saying that "Foreman wis sewing up the title in the early rounds."
The strangest thing to me about Romney's remarks is he appears to have lived in a bubble his whole life. All of my life I have heard the liberals accuse republicans of not caring about the poor. And strutting like a peacock the morning after his grand Florida win he uses the liberal language.
My first awareness of 'politics' of democrat versus republican, came from my dirt poor grandmother. She despised Roosevelt back in the 60's. It was not until Reagan that I understood. Romney is clueless and I firmly believe the liberals are going to clean his 1% 'bain' if he wins the nomination.
In election after election, Ohio has been the GOP`s firewall. No Ohio = 4 more years of Obama.
On the upside, Romney and Gingrich have proven quite effective in shredding each other. The public now despises both.
True, Mitt should have known not to start a sentence with "I am not concerned about the poor"---(continuing)because they have a safety net which we will fix if needed; I am not concerned with the rich because they are doing all right. I am concerned about the middle class.
Too late, now, because it is carved in granite.
vaudine
What was the turnout on that SB-5 referendum? Did all the union members turn out and nobody else show up? If so, likely to be a”massive” backlash this year is my guess.
Bishop Willard Romney is a cold, callous prick, every bit as much as Lightworker Hussein. Democrats get a pass for their callous candidates and policies. Republicans do not.
The Blue Collar (un-employed Auto and Steel industry dupe Unionista’s) and inner-city parasitic tribal votes are VERY DIFFICULT to overcome in Ohio. The Cities have the numbers and the Fraud to make an (R) win a very un-likely prospect, IF they get out and vote for their handouts.
These things are only carved in granite because we let them be. I'm not defending Romney in general, but this kind of ‘gotcha’ moment can happen to anybody, and will happen over and over again to the Republican nominee. It's essential to have a strategy to rapidly and clearly refute those ‘mistakes’.
If I were Romney's camp I would make a preemptive commercial with the full quote in it, with the theme being that his focus is to improve the economy and help prevent anyone more citizens from falling into poverty. He can go on about how those in the middle are alone, victimized by crony capitalism and political manipulation of what should be a free market economy, yet paying significantly through their taxes for safety nets they have no access to (I'm not advocating big government - just trying to make a point about how to seize the populist message and avoid being characterized as an insensitive rich guy).
Any poll having Obama head to head against a single Republican are bogus. Ask any pollster.
The Newt voters will say they aren’t voting for Romney and vice versa.
That’s why Newt polls so poorly against Obama as well. Many Romney supporters will simply tell the pollster they support no one or even Obama. It’s a fact in polling.
Whereas Obama has full support of all Dems.
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