Posted on 02/01/2012 8:23:50 AM PST by Vigilanteman
As the guy who predicted here that Newt would pull out a narrow win in Florida, I have to admit I was wrong. Dead wrong.
This doesn't change the fact that I was dead right about Newt's upset win in South Carolina. All the pundits were predicting a close election or a narrow win for Newt. I was alone in predicting a blow-out. The only thing I was wrong about is UNDER estimating his margin of victory.
Not to make excuses, but I had sources on the ground in South Carolina. In Florida, I was limited to looking at news, polls and crunching numbers. So how could the results have been so different? Let's examine each reason:
Reason #1: The Newtzilla Factor. Jonah Goldberg's explanation still very much applies. It is just that the Newtzilla wounded himself far worse in the final debate that even I imagined. More on that when we get to Reason #7.
Reason #2: Mitt Romney. He didn't underperform his polling this time. In fact, he achieved actual results on the high end of his polling for the first time in his political career. Less than 24 hours after the primary, I am at a loss to explain it and it will require further analysis.
Reason #3: Money. Yes, I know Mitt vastly outspent Newt in Florida. But Newt still does not lack for money. His PACs are still buying anti-Romney ads in Pennsylvania and we don't vote until April 24. Money is definitely a factor, but how and where you spend it is even more important.
Reason #4: Florida is still a southern state. In the breakdown of exit polling shown here, Newt was polling 1% more of the large self-identified Evangelical voters than Mitt. One percent. He needed about 20% to win Florida. I don't have the resources to analyze why. But Newt needs to do so if he's going to turn his campaign around. Here's a guess: Knock off the attacks from the left on Bain Capital and immigration. The hard conservative vote (Free Republic readers) will forgive you because we know you (probably) don't mean it. For the remainer, not being Mitt Romney is just not good enough.
Reason #5: Early voting. Yes it was huge. But turnout on primary election voting day was even bigger. Bigger than in 2008. Bigger than most of the pundits predicted.
Reason #6: National polls. These reflected a big bounce from Newt's huge South Carolina win. There is a portion of the electorate which is always swayed by the bandwagon effect. And Newt was the front-runner after South Carolina. Not anymore. Those polls will tighten now. I've never understood this mentality. Logical thinker that I am, I'd vote for the candidate more likely to lose in a close election where all things were equal. But bandwagon voters, like feelings voters are more prevalent in a large mostly urban state somewhat insulated from reality than they are in a smaller mostly rural state which has to face reality head-on.
Reason #7: Immigration. This really comes into focus when you look at the results of Hispanic voters. It's all Romney, even an absolute majority which crosses the 50% barrier. Some might dismiss this by pointing to the popularity of Marco Rubio, a Romney backer. Others by saying Hispanics like free stuff from the government.
Either would be a mistake. Notice Mitt drew more from Cuban-American Hispanics than non-Cuban-American Hispanics. Cubans are the more conservative subset of the two.
Let me suggest the real reason was Newt's attack from the left in the last debate about Romney's suggestion of self-deportation. Legal Americans of Hispanic descent are not so hung-up on non-enforcement of our immigration laws as the La Raza crowd. In fact, they would like to see more enforcement. These people came here legally, worked hard, appreciate the advantages which America has to offer and are more interested in contributing to America than they are in getting free stuff like the La Raza crowd. It is a hard concept for politicians steeped in the ways of Washington to understand. Newt will need to understand it and learn it if he is going to reverse positions with the new front runner.
Mary, Remember that old phrase about fooling some of the people...Well they will come around. In between times pray for them.
If you aren’t knowledgable about WHite Horse and the LDS look it up....
Next time you see them just say you’ve found out some interesting information about Will M. Don’t argue, just share facts. Find out the information on his position as a Bishop for the North Eastern quarter of the US, Do your research and share it with them. You might even say it in a positive way. Saying how glad you are to know that he is so religious...Don’t get edgy...They’ll think about it....Unless they’re Mormons who have been indocterated by the White Hor garbage then just dust them off and move on.
I’m having trouble understanding some of this. Can you elaborate a little more?
Is Will M. Romney?
[ Whats the Churchill quote? Some think like he may be a bastard, but hes our bastard. ]
I agree... No doubt about it.. He is the devil but he is our devil..
It would cheap to pay Newt a couple of Billion dollars to be President..
IF..... he disassembled the federal government..
The finest apples from apple land, makes Motts apple juice just grand....it was a jingle...jingles stay with the mind usually cause they rhyme. Still the word meme just surfaced in the last couple of years on the net. Not in the dictionary so must be recent vernacular.
Here are examples of memes.
“Newt Gingrich asked his wife for a divorce in the hospital when she was dying of cancer.”
“I can see Russia from my front porch.” This was attributed to Sarah Palin though she never spoke those words.
“Ronald Reagan is stupid.”
“The TEA Party is racist.”
“Nazis are right wing.”
These are phrases or ideas that repeated often enough become defacto truths.
Have to disagree.
South of Gainesville, urban Florida hasn't been “Southern” since the 1950’s.
Cubans are the ONLY Conservative subset of Hispanic voters.
Non-Cuban Hispanics vote 65% for Democrats.
In other words, anything that comes out of a democrat/liberals mouth...or is printed more than once in the newspapers....OK I am beginning to understand now..:O)
The Lucky Strike one meant something different to us teens in the fifty's......It was** Don't forget LSMFT, Lucky Strike means Fine Tobacco*** part of their real commericials, but if I wrote it out I'd be banned for smut...
If I could afford to send some money to Newt, I wouldn't be rolling my own cigarettes...but he has my vote if he makes it to Michigan...:O)
Thank God I didn't get addicted to cig. Son had a horrible time getting off them. IMO the worse addiction out there.
FYI meme is a shortened version of an advertising term I can never remember. Have you tried looking it up in Wikipedia...I think that’s where it was pointed out to me here on FR.
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