Posted on 01/29/2012 2:15:12 PM PST by Vigilanteman
Despite a bad debate performance in Tampa, Newt Gingrich will still make it over the finish line on Tuesday with about 3% to spare. The primaries will formally continue until at least Super Tuesday, but Gingrich needs to start thinking about the end game of defeating Obama in the fall sooner rather than later.
I don't mean to brag, but I predicted his easy win in South Carolina well before it happened. The only thing I was wrong about was the margin of his win: I predicted 8%. The actual result was 13%.
There are (at least) seven reasons why Newt will win in Florida. I'm giving you those reasons not as a Newt supporter-- I'm actually supporting Rick Santorum-- but as an informed observer.
Reason #1: The Newtzilla Factor. If you don't know what this is, go to the URL in the source. Jonah Goldberg explained it in National Review better than I could possibly hope to do. But if you are too lazy to read his article, the key is that nobody can beat the Newtzilla among conservatives except the Newtzilla himself. He didn't even come close with one sub-par debate performance.
Reason #2: Mitt Romney. He always underperforms his polling. You can argue over the reasons. Some claim it is religion. Others the likability factor. Still others, jealousy of his self-made success. You can pick out evidence to support any of these reasons or more. But it isn't important unless you are working for the Romney campaign and trying to massage his image. The string of elections he's run dating back to Massachussetts 18 years ago only supports this contention. So don't argue with the facts.
Reason #3: Money. Newt does not lack for it. While it might be a different story by the general election, he is not hurting for it now. In fact, when you count all of the Newt friendly PAC money, they have enough to run anti-Romney advertising in Pennsylvania right now. Our primary is not until the end of April. Romney and pro-Romney PAC's have not even started to run advertising here. While this doesn't necessary mean the Romney machine is running out of money, it does mean Newt's backers are not even close to that point.
Reason #4: Florida is still a southern state. Don't get me wrong. It is still one of the big three bellweather states in every presidential election in the last 120 years (Pennsylvania and Ohio being the other two)-- win all three and you cruise to election; win any two of the three and you still limp across the finish line. Florida also has a 20 year longer record of picking GOP nominees than does South Carolina. All of the state is, of course, not Newt's backyard as was South Carolina. But a significant portion of it is. And that is an advantage which Mitt Romney simply cannot claim outside of a few tony enclaves in Dade and Palm Beach counties.
Reason #5: Early voting. At one time, this favored Romney. Then Newtzilla swept through South Carolina. Those planning to vote early swung over to Gingrich in even greater margins than those planning to vote on election day. Most of them have already voted. They can't change their votes now even after Newt's poor debate performance.
Reason #6: National polls. Newt is still leading handily in the national polls, in the 6-8 point range. Florida pretty much mirrors national polls, although I am cutting his margin in half based on the poor Tampa debate performance and more recent polling data.
Reason #7: Immigration. I can't tell what Newt was thinking when he attacked Romney as being too harsh on immigration in Tampa. Mitt earns a pathetic C+ from NumbersUSA and equally mediocre marks from other groups pushing to limit Open Borders policies. Perhaps Newt was making a calculation that he would get more of a bump in a state with a large immigrant population to more than compensate from the backlash he would get from native voters in a state suffering from high unemployment. Perhaps, he was even right. Perhaps not. Such a remark from Rick Perry was the beginning of the end for his campaign just a few short months ago. But the field was crowded with Romney alternatives at that time. Not so now. So I think the damage to Newt will be minimal for the Florida primary, but it could come back to haunt him in the rust belt states. There is no way he is going to outbid Obama for a soft immigration policy in the general election, so he would be wise to apologise for the remarks as soon as possible after he wraps up the win in Florida. This will hurt him temporarily just as the admission on lying about having witnesses ready to counter what his ex-wife said in ABC's gotcha interview. But it won't keep him from getting the nomination.
I hope that Rick Santorum polls strongly enough to emerge as a conservative alternative to Mitt Romney if Newt Gingrich falters.
Santorum only pulls conservatives from Newt allowing Romney to have a chance. There’s no way Santorum would get the nomination but if he doesn’t drop out it will be his fault and those who support him who will be to blame should we end up with Romney.
Sometimes the conventional wisdom is right. Gingrich will lose Florida because the consensus of polls - independent, media, right-leaning (InsiderAdvantage), left-leaning (PPP) - all point to a substantial, outside-the-margin-of-error victory for Romney. It counterproductive at this point to focus your emotional energy on Florida, because the result will then lead you to despair.
Gingrich still has a fighting chance to win the majority of the delegates - 1,144. Look to upcoming states, e.g., Texas (144 delegates), the entire delegate-rich batch of Southern states, and even states such as Minnesota (40 delegates), where a recent PPP shows Gingrich at 36, Romney 18.
Get ready for long, protracted guerrilla warfare until the convention.
And send Newt some cash, if you can afford it.
There will be more TURNOUT than the 2010 elections. When it’s not close they can’t cheat!
Obama's moves this week coupled to his SOTU address are pushing voters Romney's way.
bttt
“For whatever reason, Romney seems like a creature put on Earth to blend in with the humans and report back what he finds. He clearly likes earthlings, and they in turn find him pleasant enough, and surprisingly lifelike. Occasionally he finds the right words, but he rarely connects them to the right tone. This dearth of convincing passion in the front-runner makes the passionate base of the party want to look elsewhere — even to Newtzilla.”
I guess he reads my posts because I compared Mitt to the Coneheads.
Agreed, it was not a “bad performance”. If anything he was not as well prepared for some of Romneys attacks, which were far better presented than anything Willard has done in the past. Newt had some good moments and I’d give him a “C”.
He can’t go on the attack against the media every time. Wolfie pushed back and didn’t leave many openings.
All I wish is that Newt would have been more like Santorum, and that he’d repeated more often the basic principles of conservatism, which by the way, “works every time it’s tried”.
Perhaps he does? It is a great comparison!
Exactly why Santorum is smart to remain in the campaign. The Newtzilla has a history of shooting himself. Were that to happen now, we would be left with no alternative without Rick Santorum unless you count the moonbat Ron Paul.
You CAN help Newt out, by making phone calls from his national phone banks into Florida. 32 Florida Tea Parties have endorsed Newt here. The grassroots are trying to get out into the face-to-face, but there needs to be people picking up the slack on the phones. It is very easy. If you are shy, the first couple calls will be a little scary, and after that, you will sail.
PLEASE CALL FOR NEWT TODAY AND TOMORROW AND TUESDAY!!
www.newt.org/activism/pb/
www.newt.org/donate
If Newt was more like Rick Santorum, I would be supporting him rather than Rick Santorum.
Rick was my district's congressman for four years and my senator for 12. He isn't a perfect conservative, but he's about as good as this country can possibly elect.
I was especially disgusted by Newt's Hispandering. There is more than ample legitimate ammunition with which to attack Mitt Romney. Running to his left on immigration isn't one of them.
Last I checked, Marco Rubio was still supporting Romney anyway.
I wish this were true. But short of a miraculous last minute break, there isn’t a single poll out there that suggests Gingrich has a prayer in FL.
Jonah has a way with words summing up Mitt!
I think Newt will win Florida because he has the backing of the Tea Party. He embraced the Movement back in its infancy, long before it was “cool” to be a Tea Partier. While the RINO’s and Old Guard Republicans were calling them “kook-fringe extremists”, Gingrich was attending rallies and listening to their concerns. I think it will pay off for him big time in the Florida election. Because politically speaking, the Tea Party calls the shots in this state.
Santorum’s been pandering since day one with the social issues, primarily because his platform and his head are bereft of actual ideas for the country. I don’t comprehend the appeal of Santorum, especially the way he was willing to bash any conservative, from Cain on down, who stood in his way. He’s an opportunist and a fraud. Better he gets out before his presence gets a Romney win. There will never be another flowback to Santorum even if Newt fails. The reason is simple... Santorum is too generic. That’s why his fluke win in Iowa didn’t translate to a sustained front runner status, and people didn’t even take the time to slime him the way Newt has been slimed. That’s telling you something.
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