Posted on 01/25/2012 1:50:05 PM PST by Utmost Certainty
Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are locked in a virtual dead heat just days before Florida’s pivotal Jan. 31 primary, according to a new TIME/CNN/ORC poll.
Romney earns the backing of 36% of the state’s registered Republicans, a slight edge over the 34% who prefer Gingrich. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who was belatedly declared the winner of the Iowa caucus, came in third in the survey, notching support from 11% of respondents. Texas Congressman Ron Paul, who is skipping Florida to concentrate on smaller caucus states, trails with 9%. After three states produced three different winners, Florida has emerged as a turning point in the turbulent GOP primary season. The winner-take-all tussle for 50 convention delegates will test whether Gingrich’s momentum can survive a collision with Romney’s fat wallet and organizational clout in a large, diverse swing state with numerous media markets. In the days following Gingrich’s commanding victory in South Carolina, Romney’s lieutenants have launched bruising attacks on the former Speaker, recasting him as an unreliable leader who used his Washington connections to cash in as a lobbyist.
(Excerpt) Read more at swampland.time.com ...
Drudge is just an aggregator, you have to dig into what is being put up there.
Polls are polls, what matters is the vote and as we saw in SC, things can change fast. Cheers!
Romney is Carpet-Bombing the state with negative media, and some of the Tweets, You-Tubes full of Anti-Newt hate I’ve seen today would make a prostitute blush.
I fear that people are going to do EXACTLY what the Magic Talking Box they stare at is telling them to do...
It’s 369 likely Republican primary voters.
+++++++++++
... who were chosen from 410 registered primary voters. Unless there is a 90% turnout, there are quite a few registered but not going to vote people in the sample. That distorts the poll and favors Romney.
Seems that the Newtmentum after SC primary was too short-lasting, it looks like Dec all over again, with Newt going to 35% nationally and then falling all the way to 15%. This time his floor is higher, 25% perhaps. But he will likely lose this primary (something like Mitt 41% - Newt 33%), and will have to bounce back again, for the third time.
369 voters is too small of a sample to have any statistical significance as any kind of predictive model. Dismiss as nothing more than propaganda. Other pols that are more reliable show Newt leading or surging.
You gave us Specter, and thus a Democrat Supermajority and Obamacare.
Now you very well may give us Mitt Romney as the GOP nominee.
How fast can you erase a lifetime of dedication to Conservative causes, Rick? A couple of years of bone-headed moves?!?!?!
You sure it’s not a predictive indicator? I would think that people with inside information (like internal polling) would be making use of Intrade to profit off of that information, which means it would be ahead of the curve.
Ultimately I think Newt had a bad debate performance on Monday especially compared to his last couple. I watched it through the eyes of someone who had not watched a debate before and he looked like he was dodging (”go to my web site for the answers”) in the same way that Mitt looked last week.
Mitt is bombing him with attacks in the debate and on air which already proved to have worked in Iowa. Newt needs to perform strongly again in tomorrow’s debate. I don’t know how early voting works, but I have to assume a lot of votes will be cast over the weekend, so a great debate performance might provide a surge at the right time. His ad machine in Florida needs to crank up much more than it did in Iowa to turn this around. If he backs off Bain Capital attacks, I don’t think he can win, because that is Romney’s Achilles Heel. It adds a negative to him and takes away his strength (business experience) in one shot, meaning it’s like buying one ad and getting one free. Using Bain is the only way to ensure he doesn’t win the under $200,000 income vote.
Newt might be getting big turnout at his events, but the type of voter voting for Mitt will be the ones who do not get that enthusiastic about politics, don’t pay attention that much, and don’t go to rallies, but still make it a point to vote.
WHY? This is scaring me. Florida Wake Up
Drudge is very very anti Newt...no question
Homosexuals prefer Mitt
Rasmussed had Newt up by a substantial earlier this week. have his numbers changed I wonder?
The amount of money it takes to make intrade move isn’t huge. I think Romney is betting on his futures there, to keep them propped up, in the hopes that a bad intrade showing doesn’t spill over to the election. Newt went from 60 to 45 today, for no apparant reason.
It takes one debate for Newt to right the ship, and that debate is tomorrow night. Newt was hogtied with the audience not participating and I guarantee you he comes out smoking. Willard the Liberal will try the exact same thing again. The first time he says the word disgraceful or influence peddler look for the gloves to come off. Willard
the liberal will not know what hit him. LET’S GET READY TO RUMBLE!
Well, there has been some bad news coming out. Rubio shilling that Mitt’s a “conservative” isn’t helping. Then there’s some bungled comments about humane immigration floating around on there from an interview Newt gave on Univision. And the attacks from Romney on Newt during the debate re: Freddie Mac + ethics charges (plus the subsequent non-defense Newt basically gave), might have been more effective than I initially gave them credit for.
I agree that there is spin that favors Romney (and not just the item I quoted from your post). But I don't see that combination of factors as justifying as big a change on intrade as appeared rather suddenly. Newt was at 60 ten hours ago, now at 35.
Items that aren't making much splash in the news include turnout at the candidates events (Newt is drawing thousands, Romney is drawing hundreds); Romney is on the attack; Newt is not mentioning Romney much, instead laying out his vision in comparison with Obama.
As for the item I singled out, Newt defended himself, but the defense was brief and not "spirited" or angry. Romney's allegations are now foundation for a slapdown, where news reports can be used by Newt to show what a liar Romney is. I think Newt takes FL. He's behaving with confidence.
FWIW, I find some of Newt's positions uncomfortable (to say the least), but comparing with Romney on the exact same point, I find Newt to be a weaker poison. And there are plenty of things that Newt says that jazz me. None of what Romney says jazzes me. Not that my view has much weight in how the nation goes - I'm rather an outlier that way.
Yeah, but will they count ballots with “chads”?
If Newt loses Florida to Romney it will be because Newts organizing ability lags his visionary ability by a good margin and because he has managed to alienate Rubio and anti illegal folk simultaneously. No mean feat.
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