You sure it’s not a predictive indicator? I would think that people with inside information (like internal polling) would be making use of Intrade to profit off of that information, which means it would be ahead of the curve.
Ultimately I think Newt had a bad debate performance on Monday especially compared to his last couple. I watched it through the eyes of someone who had not watched a debate before and he looked like he was dodging (”go to my web site for the answers”) in the same way that Mitt looked last week.
Mitt is bombing him with attacks in the debate and on air which already proved to have worked in Iowa. Newt needs to perform strongly again in tomorrow’s debate. I don’t know how early voting works, but I have to assume a lot of votes will be cast over the weekend, so a great debate performance might provide a surge at the right time. His ad machine in Florida needs to crank up much more than it did in Iowa to turn this around. If he backs off Bain Capital attacks, I don’t think he can win, because that is Romney’s Achilles Heel. It adds a negative to him and takes away his strength (business experience) in one shot, meaning it’s like buying one ad and getting one free. Using Bain is the only way to ensure he doesn’t win the under $200,000 income vote.
Newt might be getting big turnout at his events, but the type of voter voting for Mitt will be the ones who do not get that enthusiastic about politics, don’t pay attention that much, and don’t go to rallies, but still make it a point to vote.