Posted on 01/15/2012 10:32:42 PM PST by TitansAFC
ATLANTA — As the GOP races settles into South Carolina, Mitt Romney isn’t enjoying the double-digit lead he held in New Hampshire, according to a survey conducted Wednesday night.
The former Massachusetts governor’s lead is so small in the Palmetto State that he’s essentially tied with Newt Gingrich, according to a poll for the Augusta Chronicle and Savannah Morning News conducted by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research.
Romney’s 23 percent and Gingrich’s 21 fall within the 3.6 percent margin of error. Rick Santorum, who came in second in the Iowa caucus is in third pace in South Carolina with 14 percent, while Ron Paul, the runner up in New Hampshire, is effectively tied with him at 13.
Jon Huntsman has 7, and Rick Perry has 5 while 17 percent are undecided or favor a candidate not offered as a choice in the survey.
The telephone survey questioned 726 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the South Carolina GOP primary. Voters don’t have to be Republicans to participate in the Jan. 21 balloting, but independents generally make up a small share of the total, according to pollster Matt Towery, president of InsiderAdvantage.
Romney, Gingrich and Paul all do equally well with the independents in the survey. Paul, though, is getting little traction from long-time Republican voters.
Romney does better with female voters while men prefer Gingrich.
“This is not good news for Mitt Romney,” said Towery, who chaired several of Gingrich’s congressional campaigns before becoming a non-partisan pollster. “There is no other way to put it. This means it is a dead-even race. South Carolinians couldn’t care less about New Hampshire or Iowa.”
Romney, on his second try for the nomination, won the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary this month, the first non-incumbent Republican to do so. However, those back-to-back wins don’t seem to be giving him overwhelming momentum this far South.
Gingrich represented the western part of neighboring Georgia for 20 years in Congress and apparently knows how to appeal to southern voters who tend to be more concerned about social issues than those in New Hampshire.
The Jan. 21 GOP primary in South Carolina is regarded as the first meaningful contest because of what the results will signal for the party’s chances of defeating President Obama in November. Of course, it’s also stoking anticipation because of the legendary ruthlessness of the state’s political operatives.
Republicans in South Carolina like to remind people that their primary picks presidents, or at least presidential nominees. Since 1980, when Ronald Reagan won 55 percent of the vote, no candidate has captured the Republican nomination for president without notching a win in South Carolina’s GOP primary. In the 2008 election, eventual-nominee John McCain won the South Carolina primary with more than 30 percent of the vote, trailed by Iowa winner Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. Romney came in fourth in South Carolina with about 15 percent.
This time, the results will be dramatically different, as the state’s active Evangelical voting bloc is expected to set aside prejudice in favor of pragmatism. Support among their ranks may signal that they accept Romney, a Mormon, in part for being the candidate largely believed to offer the toughest challenge to President Obama.
Since Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, where Romney steamrolled his rivals with nearly 40 percent of the vote, the candidates have swarmed the Palmetto State. They are stumping at barbecue joints, pharmacies, universities and local government buildings. On Monday, the candidates are scheduled to participate in a debate in Myrtle Beach, hosted by the SCGOP, Fox News Channel, The Wall Street Journal, and Twitter.
Some are seeing the Palmetto State as their last chance to justify their candidacy.
It’s a perfect storm of frustration, too many conservatives in the damn race.
Like you, I'm pro Newt, but I sort of feel like if Perry has enough money, why should he get out before FL, from his point of view? Fl is the first CLOSED primary state, and likely much more friendly to him.
I have no idea what you are talking about.
I just don’t want to see Romney winning South Carolina.
Are you sure your definition of 'push poll' is the same as that of the rest of the world?
Here's the one and only question from the InsiderAdvantage poll (same question on both Wednesday and Sunday):
If the Republican presidential caucus or primary were held today, would you vote for Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, someone else or do you not know who you would vote for?
Unless I am mistaken, a push poll is one that contacts a huge number of targets (the InsiderAdvantage polls used samples of only about 725 people) and ask damaging, unfounded hypotheticals in order to influence the polled population's perception of a particular candidate. This doesn't seem to fit to me.
Hmmm let’s see... if Santorum and Perry drop out...maybe it’s
Newt 40
Romney 23
I hear Huntsman’s dropping out to help Romney... But don’t look like Perry and Santorum are going to do the same...
Maybe folks they’re staying in to help Romney too.
Newt, stay in this until they’ve all dropped out.
I think Santorum will do well enough in SC to keep going. Perry will drop out. Romney will have eeked out another victory...and maybe also in FL after witch Santorum will drop out...but has the damage been done?
Newt needs to stay in this race until it’s one on one.
Santorum is a good and decent man, but he is too weak with no new ideas or reforms. Just a lot of rhetoric. Sorry that’s how I feel.
CA voters understand the power of regret.
Arnold taught us lessons that we never will forget.
Like Romney, he had promises he never could fulfill.
Every chance he had, he blew, with every single bill.
Will SC be as clueless? Will they make the same mistake?
Will Perry and Santorum quit and save us from Mitt-fake?
Allowing moderates to win ensures a quick demise.
Will spoilers’ pride prevent what’s happening before our eyes?
With Newt, at least we have a fighting chance to coalesce,
to undermine the Mitt cabal and sink Obama’s mess.
WAKE UP, SC!!! Don’t let yourself be fooled by Romney’s charm.
He’s NOT sincere. His history is proof he’ll do us harm.
If being conservative to you means anything at all,
then don’t allow a Romney or Obama win. Stand TALL!!!
Hope and pray Romney’s freight train is derailed.
Based on the surreptitious attacks on Newt back in Iowa by this guy’s PACs, there is NO DOUBT in my mind that the Bimbo assaults on Cain were Romney generated.
The entire GOP establishment - the very people who gave us McCain and Obama, is working overtime in high gear to get their “boy” nominated.
Romney is on RECORD supporting the Brady Bill and the Assault Rifle Ban and has said NOTHING to distance himself from that position - among many other things.
Bain is just the tip of the iceberg for this guy.
Very interesting that Huntsman chooses now to drop out, when Romney is in a tight race.
Actually the Bible says ‘Pride goeth before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall’
But there seems to be this attitude on FR now that if you are supporting someone you are brainwashed and you can accuse him worshiping that individual.
This is simply a smear and not worthy of conservatives.
Exactly, Santorum is not going to beat Obama.
I predicted 6 weeks before the Iowa Caucuses that Santorum would be the surprise coming out of Iowa. Now, with 75% of the Social Conservatives backing him, look for him to surge in the next 5 days. The fact that Romney is even leading in a State like SC is disturbing. But this is how it happens every year folks. Multiple Conservatives join the race; split the vote and the Moderate, Establishment candidate wins with a plurality. RINO-John (McCain) was broke and had no staff in New Hampshire and ended up winning the nomination In ‘08. It’s happened every election cycle since 1980.
Now, if RINO-Rom wins SC, whomever (Santorum or Gingrich) comes in closest to him needs to stay in the race. The other, along with Rick Perry, needs to drop out and unite behind one Conservative for Florida.
Am I right or wrong; anybody???
The Arousal Gap returns.
Unfortunately, he’s got a big dumb following here, and an ego to match it. How he actually thinks he’s can win is beyond me. I thought he was staying in to knock down Romney, but then last week he goes after Newt. At least Perry is consistently bashing Romney.
Not this thread, but the California Board has a real stinker of a troll the brain sewage needs to be removed from the board please.
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