Posted on 01/08/2012 8:31:13 PM PST by lilyfreeper
Santorum's so-called surge is all but gone. Huntsman is catching up.
Why don’t we focus on the candidate best positioned to challenge Obama AND most committed to the conservative cause...which would be Jon Huntsman. Thank our lucky stars he is trending like mad in New Hampshire with the best day of the campaign just two days before voting - we NEED him.
Two words: Open Primary.
With no contest on the Dem side, lefties are coming over to vote for Willard. They want Romney so they can make Bain the Bane of Romney in the general.
Florida, New Hampshire... LOL! Gingrich is the only real American candidate. As for the socialists in and retired from all levels of government, the default process continues regardless of their political desires. Bond collapse, interest rate hikes, layoffs, pension cuts...it’s on the way. Starve the B, and finish her off.
It is consistent with the Suffolk tracking poll taken on the same days, Saturday and Sunday.
The Suffolk poll shows a big drop in Romney's support over the past week, from 43% to 33%, and over the past few days a rise in Huntsman's numbers and a slight uptick in Santorum/Gingrich as undecideds pick their choice.
| Latest poll represents interviews from Jan 3rd and 4th | |||||||||
| Release date | Jan 1 | Jan 2 | Jan 3 | Jan 4 | Jan 5 | Jan 6 | Jan 7 | Jan 8 | Jan 9 |
| Romney | 41 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 41 | 40 | 39 | 35 | 33 |
| Paul | 15 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 20 | 20 |
| Huntsman | 9 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 |
| Gingrich | 11 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| Santorum | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| Perry | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Roemer | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |||
| Karger | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Bachmann | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | na | na | na | na |
It appears to me that he's taking support from Romney and from undecideds.
The best thing for the GOP would be a split field right through the convention, with Ron Paul(!!) forcing the party to select a better option as standard bearer.
Santorum’s numbers have been climbing, though it’s not surprising that he has little chance of actually winning. New Hampshire is the opposite of Iowa when it comes to strong Christian conservatives, and there’s no reason not to suspect a repeat of what happened to Huckabee here.
Fortunately, Rick knows this. Where he has a chance to shine is in South Carolina. Suggesting he is losing support in New Hampshire, where his current position is the strongest it has ever been there - is creating a false dialog.
Romney’s numbers have been fluctuating at the high 20’s, low 30’s for a while now. The most recent up-ticks, in the range of 1 or 2 points, have been for Huntsman (who is still stuck in the low teens), Paul, and Gingrich. Barring a catastrophic change, I still expect Romney to carry it with Paul and Gingrich vying for 2nd place.
In other words, pretty much as predicted for a while now.
With the way the polls are going, including this PPP poll and Suffolk tracking, which have relatively similar numbers, I expect Romney to win, but with less than 35% of the vote, possibly as low as the upper 20’s, considering that the tracking shows the momentum is heavily against Romney. Momentum can sometimes make a 5-10 point difference between the polls and the actual results. Momentum has stalled for Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, and Perry never had much momentum in New Hampshire to start. Gingrich doesn’t have much, but Huntsman is surging.
What we need to watch in these polls is less the numbers and more about momentum.
Given this, I’ll predict that the result will be:
Mitt Romney-30%
Jon Huntsman-22
Ron Paul-19
Newt Gingrich-15
Rick Santorum-10
Rick Perry-2
Other-2
Result: Momentum shifts to Huntsman and Gingrich into the South Carolina primary. Romney loses a chunk of his voters to Huntsman, who is basically Mitt Romney without some of the more egregious baggage. That will basically put Romney out of the running in South Carolina, where Perry will be given his final chance to eek out a miracle and will make or break Santorum (I suspect break). The favorite in SC will be Gingrich.
It’s basically all downhill for Ron Paul from here on out. The next time he will be even approaching 20% will be in the Nevada Caucuses next month, which he has a small shot at actually winning if Romney is falling and Huntsman splits the Mormon and RINO voting blocs there.
GO HUNTSMAN!!!
I mean have you seen his daughters??
Talk about producing opportunity...
Obviously the even vote in Dixville Notch : Romney 2, Huntsman 2 ... is related to this LOL
Damn straight!
The Ron Paul internal polling must look pretty interesting right now. They seem to be a bit anxious about Huntsman.
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