Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan
Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.
Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.
We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.
My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:
Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1
Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.
If Santorum is the nominee, the GOP loses and we get another 4 years of Obama.
I do not believe that Perot elected Clinton; I believe a fellow named GHWB elected Clinton, just as GWB elected Obama.
Minor v. Happersett , 88 U.S. 162 (1875)
This case concerned Mrs. Happersett, an original suffragette, who in virtue of the 14th Amendment attempted to register to vote in the State of Missouri, and was refused because she was not a man. The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court in that year, wrote the majority opinion, in which he stated:
The Constitution does not in words say who shall be natural-born citizens. Resort must be had elsewhere to ascertain that. At common law, with the nomenclature of which the framers of the Constitution were familiar, it was never doubted that all children born in a country of parents who were its citizens became themselves, upon their birth, citizens also. These were natives or natural-born citizens, as distinguished from aliens or foreigners. Some authorities go further and include as citizens children born within the jurisdiction without reference to the citizenship of their parents.
United States v. Wong Kim Ark, 169 U.S. 649 (1898)
In this case, Wong Kim Ark, the son of 2 resident Chinese aliens, claimed U.S. Citizenship and was vindicated by the court on the basis of the 14th Amendment. In this case the Justice Gray gave the opinion of the court. On p. 168-9 of the record, He cites approvingly the decision in Minor vs. Happersett:
At common law, with the nomenclature of which the framers of the Constitution were familiar, it was never doubted that all children, born in a country of parents who were its citizens, became themselves, upon their birth, citizens also. These were natives, or natural-born citizens, as distinguished from aliens or foreigners.
Dave,
Check out this map AGAIN. It’s a Huckaboom again! Rick with WINS in 55 and counting counties across the state.. dominating the map of Iowa’s counties.
Wow!!!
http://iowacaucus.com/results/
Have a friend with special needs daughter. Santorum has a special needs daughter too ( As does Sarah with her son ).
These folks get life, like we don't, and they are humble... it might be quite the juxtaposition to the arrogance we have seen from Oboingo. It would be good for America IMHO... "
When Rick Santorum was serving as our senator, he employed a good friend of our family. She had a major health problem involving complicated surgery and other treatments. When the insurance company initially denied part of her treatment, the senator became involved personally. He made sure that she had her medical needs covered and that her job would be waiting for her when she was ready to return. I've always remembered him for his basic kindness and decency.
Thanks, CainConservative. Very nice.
You’re asking for a lesson in “Birther 101”.
There was a guy on one thread promulgating the theory that in order to be “natural born” you had to be a direct descendent of one of the people alive when the Constitution was ratified.
So I, according to him, being the grandson of Greek immigrants would be “native born” but not “natural born”.
I read it and he will need it and then some.
Give till it hurts!
They are going to Gingrich HQ very soon. Flip back and forth.
With his nose pressed up against a window of the debate venue???
FOXNews projects Paul at 3rd.
the backstabber, Bishop Romney, is NOT ELIGIBLE.
he is nothing but a Soros-backed, DNC-posing saboteur.
Romney is a guaranteed Loss for the GOP.
Don’t worry about Santorum and the life issues. He’ll spend plenty of time and effort on the economy if he wins the nomination.
810 posted on Tuesday, January 03, 2012 9:34:06 PM by Pappy Smear: “(MSFBU asked) Does anybody know if the later report caucus sites tend to be more or less conservative...?”
One thing I noticed on the map, Jefferson and Story Counties (Fairfield and Ames) have not reported yet. They will likely have strong Paul votes. (Jefferson was the only county Paul won in 08, and Story is home of Iowa State University, where I expect Paul would win. However, 3 NW counties which are huge social conservative counties have not reported. I would think they would be heavy Santorum and Perry support.”
Pappy Smear is right. The later counties to report are generally those in northwest Iowa, which while they may have lower populations have a stronger voice in the caucuses.
With the interesting exception of Plymouth County (just north of the metropolis of Sioux City, Iowa’s largest western city), most have gone for Santorum so far.
Paulbots in Iowa are over 40 dopers.
Yikes, thanks. I just heard that. The question is when will Faux let him speak?
I’d bet there are more Santorum than Perry supporters on FR. So are you saying FR has gone mad also?
I think the other big loser tonight was Ron Paul. I really think he had to go out and win to really have any story to tell. He has a cult following but that will go by the wayside. I think Sanatorum will stay in the picture. Romney’s to lose, unfortunately, and I think tonight’s results are a win. Newt can take SC but I don’t think he goes all the way. The question is, can anyone stop Romney, I know there are a lot a votes against, but unless one person comes out as a true one on one challenger, I think Romney moves through and wins.
” With Newts crushing lose tonight his coffers will dry up fast.” <<<
Conservatives are holding out for the South Carolina contest, thank you very much, where WE get to speak for a change. So, please hold your breath. (Recalling McCain lost to fourth place on this night and won the dang nomination.) Get a grip when you saw legs off.
CNN projecting that Ron Paul will finish in 3rd.
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