Posted on 01/01/2012 8:08:15 AM PST by SeekAndFind
On the surface, the new (and final) Des Moines Register poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers basically corroborates polling from Rasmussen and NBC/Marist earlier in the week, which showed Mitt Romney slightly edging Ron Paul, while Rick Santorum gained enough ground to move into third place. The numbers are almost identical, at 24/22/15 — but it’s not the topline that is the real news. The four-day poll of 602 likely caucus-goers, which is a larger sample than NBC/Marist but smaller than Rasmussen’s single-day survey, had significant change in the final two days of polling on Thursday and Friday:
But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.
“Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” said the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer.
Another sign of the race’s volatility: 41 percent of likely caucusgoers say they could still be persuaded to change their minds.
Newt Gingrich fell further off the pace to 12%. Rick Perry, who had improved in the earlier two polls, scored a little lower in the DMR survey at 11%, and Michele Bachmann dropped to 7%. Assuming that this is how the final caucus numbers turn out, it’s likely to be Bachmann’s last stand. Perry and Gingrich will almost certainly have enough resources and energy to continue to South Carolina; Perry’s team announced that it would skip New Hampshire altogether, not exactly surprising as Perry hasn’t had much traction in the Granite State at all during this cycle, not even when Perry rode high in national polling. Gingrich has polled better and might not be able to pass up a chance to try to dent Romney’s momentum coming out of a potential Iowa win.
Can Santorum win Iowa? Rep. Steve King was skeptical of the idea, but Santorum’s proximity makes it at least a reasonable possibility. What then? Santorum won’t get much support at all in New Hampshire, so he’d likely take a page from Perry’s book and spend the week in South Carolina, hoping to build momentum with evangelicals and conservatives. The last polls from South Carolina showed Gingrich firmly in command, but they were from two weeks ago, too, before Gingrich’s slide began in earnest. Santorum’s average in the state from August to mid-December on Real Clear Politics put him dead last, even below Jon Huntsman. Winning South Carolina would be a tall order for Santorum, and yet a failure to do so leaves Santorum with few paths to even being competitive through Super Tuesday in March, with states like Nevada, Michigan, and Florida on the schedule in between. But if Santorum could pull off a miracle win in South Carolina, then conservative donors might flock to his banner as the sole remaining Not Romney with a viable shot at beating Mitt, even if still a long shot.
For Romney, though, the rise of Santorum and the Paul Stall is good news. He’d be more threatened by Gingrich or Perry, and his steadiness in Iowa shows that he has staying power. That plus his campaign resources should allow him to easily outlast Santorum, unless a Santorum surge forces everyone else out of the race early. However, if Romney wins Iowa and then New Hampshire, that might be enough even for South Carolinians to consider the virtues of wrapping up the nomination fight early, regardless of how well Santorum does.
Santorum has already purchase TV time in NH. NH voters resemble a subset of Pennsylvania voters. Perhaps not the ideal setting for Santorum to win, but enough genuine conservatives to finish respectably.
The problem with appropriations is not earmarking per say, it is with appropriating money the federal government does not have.
Santorum: 23.4% ..Will prove that the Huckaway of visiting every county, every Pizza Ranch, and kissing every baby in Iowa WORKS GREAT!!!
Romney: 23.2% ..LESS than he got in ‘08 when Huck LANDSLIDED poor Willard
Paul: 17.5% ..He’s sliding down perhaps BELOW Newt
Gingrich: 13.8% ..I think Newt can hit 15% tops — the $10,000,000 in attack ads sadly worked
Perry: toast
Bachmann: toast
Huntsman: toast
I think this is wishful thinking. Regardless of the result in Iowa, I expect both Gingrich and Perry to continue to NH and/or SC.
Bachmann I expect to drop out barring, as she puts it, a miracle.
I don’t think Perry or Newt should stay past NH. They are going to do dismal in NH. I mean seriously Perry will finish dead last.....Yep behind Huntsman. Newt will be the second last place. They are just standing in the way of moral conservative Santorum.
You obviously don’t know me then. I have moved on from Cain to Perry and there are many more who have done the same.
They can’t even participate when the votes move south? Why run at all then?
“Have faith”
.....and pray hard....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdEfwRdJpF0
Dear Lord, thank you for giving me the strength
And the conviction to complete the task you entrusted to me.
Thank you for guiding me straight and true,
Through the many obstacles in my path.
And for keeping me resolute when all around seemed lost.
Thank you for your protection and for your many signs along the way.
Thank you for any good that I may have done.
I’m so sorry about the bad.
Thank you for the friends of the Cause I have made.
Please watch over them as you watched over me.
Thank you for never allowing me to rest.
I’m so very tired, but you give me the strength.
But before I go to my final resting place, help me to fight with all I have.
In the end, please let me be at peace
Knowing that I have done right
with my time on this earth.
Knowing that I fought the good fight.
That I finished the race.
That I kept the faith.
Amen.
Mitt Romney thanks them
oh good a protest vote at this vital point(and I was a Cain supporter too).. I’m pretty sure if you gave your name and address to Romney he will send you a personal thank you note
let’s wait a couple weeks until we find out who becomes the non Romney candidate after the SC primary then all get behind him..
Romney can kiss my ass...
I am aware of two genuine conservatives in NH...I may vote for Santorum; not sure what the other conservative is going to do...
Washington, DC: Congressman Ron Paul has returned $141,580 of unspent office funds to the US Treasury. This represents just over 9% of the total office funds, and an increase over the $100,000 returned last year.
“Since my first year in Congress I have managed my office in a frugal manner, instructing staff to provide the greatest possible service to the people of the 14th district at the least possible cost to taxpayers,” said Paul.
The surplus funds are intended to go towards paying down the national debt.
I have no problem debating the pros and cons of our candidates but the lies and insults do nothing to further the cause of honest conservative constitutional governance. Paul is wrong on many issues but being a good steward of public money is not one of them.
Pork is the sole of big govt .
Paul has been pushing Pork for 32 years
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