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Ankara's "Economic Miracle" Collapses Changes in Turkey
meforum.org ^ | 12-21-11 | David P. Goldman

Posted on 12/22/2011 9:50:34 AM PST by bayouranger

Turkey's high-flying economy, which expanded at a 10 percent annual rate of gross domestic product growth during the first half of 2011,[1] will crash-land in 2012. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's "economic miracle," to use the Daily Telegraph's admiring words,[2] depended on a 40 percent annual rate of bank credit expansion, which in turn produced a balance of payments deficit as wide as that of southern Europe's crisis countries. Markets have already anticipated a sudden turnaround in the Turkish economy. The Turkish lira (TRY) fell by a quarter between November 2010 and September 2011, making it the world's worst performing emerging market currency.[3] The stock market has fallen in dollar terms by 40 percent, making Turkey the worst performer after Egypt among all the markets in the MSCI Tradable Index during 2011. (See Graph 1 for Turkey vs. emerging markets.) And most analysts now expect that the cyclical slowdown will uncover deep deficiencies in Turkey's labor force and infrastructure, leading to a prolonged structural slump rather than a passing recession.

The suddenness and size of this economic setback will in most likelihood erode the ruling Justice and Development Party's (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) capacity to govern on the strength of pragmatic success rather than Islamist ideology; will undercut its ability to use economic incentives to defuse Kurdish separatism and contain domestic opposition; and will weaken Ankara's claim to a leading regional role.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; Germany; Israel; Russia; Syria; United Kingdom; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: alexistsipras; angelamerkel; armenia; azerbaijan; brexit; cyprus; emmanuelmacron; energy; europeanunion; filthykoranimals; france; gallipoli; germany; greece; iran; jihad; kurdistan; macron; methane; nato; opec; petroleum; putingaveiranthebomb; receptayyiperdogan; russia; syria; syriza; theresamay; trnc; turkey; unitedkingdom; waronterror

How's that enshallah working out for you, koranimals?

1 posted on 12/22/2011 9:50:42 AM PST by bayouranger
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To: bayouranger; no-to-illegals; All

And now the French parliament has just voted something about the Armenian genocide caused by the Ottoman Turks in 1915 that has the Turks hopping mad and threatening various retaliations. This will not enhance their ability to work with the European Community on important issues.


2 posted on 12/22/2011 10:35:23 AM PST by gleeaikin
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To: gleeaikin

Hey, they don’t need the EU or America. Their buddies in Tehran will help ‘em out.


3 posted on 12/22/2011 10:59:29 AM PST by colorado tanker
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To: gleeaikin

Sometimes the French are on top of their game, and sometimes the French aren’t. Have no idea which one this one is.


4 posted on 12/23/2011 10:36:08 AM PST by no-to-illegals (Please God, Protect and Bless Our Men and Women in Uniform with Victory. Amen.)
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To: colorado tanker; no-to-illegals; FARS; All

Apparently the lower house in France passed a bill making it illegal to deny that the 1915 events were a genocide. Since a million Armenians were starved to death or killed, I think this passes as a genocide. Turkey is now accusing the French of genocide in Algeria.

The thing that bothers me, if I am understanding this measure correctly, is that in the US it would be an Unconstitutional denial of the right to free speech. We have allowed the Nazi Party to parade and say any ugly thing they want in this country. We still allow global warming deniers to have their say and certainly would not want that to change. So it would appear that the French have their heart in the right place, but their brain???? More information needed for a final opinion.


5 posted on 12/23/2011 10:52:41 AM PST by gleeaikin
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To: gleeaikin; SunkenCiv
Merry Christmas gleeaikin and SunkenCiv. May your day be merry and bright for both you and yours.
6 posted on 12/23/2011 10:58:03 AM PST by no-to-illegals (Please God, Protect and Bless Our Men and Women in Uniform with Victory. Amen.)
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To: gleeaikin

Europeans are very content to restrict free speech, despite all their arm waiving about supporting human rights. Then we had the spectacle of Canada putting Mark Steyn on trial for committing the crime of free speech. The U.S. is one of very few countries in the world that actually protects freedom of speech.


7 posted on 12/23/2011 11:27:24 AM PST by colorado tanker
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To: no-to-illegals; gleeaikin; AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ...

Thanks no-to-illegals, and Merry Christmas!

Turkey’s businessmen rue government stance on Syria
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16282381

[snip] “We no longer have zero problems with our neighbours,” it goes, “we now have zero neighbours without problems.” It is an ironic reference to the new foreign policy championed by the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), which was given the title “Zero Problems With Neighbours” by its architect, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. [snip]


8 posted on 12/23/2011 3:16:02 PM PST by SunkenCiv (Merry Christmas, Happy New Year! May 2013 be even Happier!)
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To: bayouranger

Shari’a law never fails to fail. If you want to have a dead economy be sure and adopt it and go islamist.


9 posted on 12/23/2011 3:18:56 PM PST by AmericanVictory (Should we be more like them or they more like we used to be?)
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To: SunkenCiv

Thanks for the link, and Happy New Year (a little early).


10 posted on 12/26/2011 12:30:43 PM PST by no-to-illegals (Please God, Protect and Bless Our Men and Women in Uniform with Victory. Amen.)
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To: no-to-illegals

HNY2U2! :’)


11 posted on 12/26/2011 4:07:43 PM PST by SunkenCiv (Merry Christmas, Happy New Year! May 2013 be even Happier!)
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