[TBBT]

Newt leads nationally but what does it matter?

Yes. That is the headline PPP crafted for it's own poll.

[cripplecreek]

Kind of curious.

Have you ever posted anything other than pro Newt or anti everyone else postings?

[Retired Greyhound]

National polls don’t matter a bit. Ask Rudy Giuliani.

The primary and caucus winners get a boost, and then the next state to vote can either confirm or repudiate the result.

Iowa and NH often disagree, and then SC decides between the two, or occasionally goes in another direction, and keeps one more candidate alive.

Super Tuesday then accelerates things.

This year, Nevada and Florida will also vote before Super Tuesday, so we could see three different winners among all of the early states.

[jessduntno]

Many PPP election polls were commissioned by the liberal website Dailykos, although the company states that most of its revenue comes from other sources.

[EagleUSA]

Newt is doing well, all considered. He is taking the punches from the radical lefitst media, and dealing it back at the right time too. IMHO, he is the ONLY front-runner that can dish it out, and is not afraid to.

The complicit media, along with the DemoRat socialist party, is used to handing it out in their favor, but is not used to getting back in their faces. Frankly, I hope Newt takes the nomination and gives it to them full force. Along with taking on Obama, toe-to-toe and showing him for who and what he is.

Certainly Romney will not do it. He will pander and cower under the Obama-media machine. And he is not a conservative, even though he says he is -— RomneyCare anyone?

Go Newt!

[bigbob]

Before even a single vote is cast, what do any polls mean? Fodder for the pundits and talking heads, mostly.

[TBBT]

Will the term “outlier” now find it’s way into the daily reporting?

Will this confuse the narrative that Newt is in a free fall?

[Yankee]

Romney has been stuck at 25% or less in every poll taken since the day he was born, no matter how hard they try to ram him down our throats.

It continues to baffle the inside-the-Beltway intelligentsia.

We’re just not that into their boy Mitty.

[CainConservative]

IA = Newt top two

NH = Newt top two

SC = Newt 1st

FL = Newt 1st

[CainConservative]

IA = Newt top two

NH = Newt top two

SC = Newt 1st

FL = Newt 1st

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Only PPP can make a 35 point lead seem like a bad thing.

(Their Iowa Propaganda campaign thingie ain’t workin’ out for them.)

[Iron Munro]

Nancy flashed

Her Depends

At Newtie

He's been at ends

Since he saw

Her booty

[CainConservative]

Oops..sorry for the double.

[FlingWingFlyer]

Lookin' at millions under a circus tent

Watchin' a jackass chase a dumb pachyderm

Oh what a show!

- "Rise Up", Jeremy Hoop

[TexasFreeper2009]

lol

BOOM!

Go Newt!

[Steamburg]

Simple, Iowa will go to Paul and show their irrelevance. Oh, the insider money that’s being wasted.

[D-fendr]

The question should be:

“Iowa Caucus, what does it matter?”

It’s meaningless. It should be ignored.

[Tallguy]

This is a problem for Gingrich. The game is to outperform expectations in the early primaries and build on that as others drop out. Candidates who poll well nationally often lose support to the early performers and never make it to those states where they are polling well (early).

Gingrich will have to lower expectations in Iowa and NH or a 3rd place finish could start the slide.

[pgkdan]

It doesn'ty matter at all. National polls in primary season are meaningless. Even worse when conducted by a polling agency that is practically an arm of the DNC and would be only too happy to sow some confusion, fear and frustration among GOP voters.

The entire political landscape will change following the Iowa caucuses. Not counting Ron Paul, whoever comes in first and second, (or second and third if Paul comes in 1st, or 1st and 3rd if Paul comes in 2nd, etc) will be catapulted to the top in the next round of national polls...at least until NH!

[geologist]

Newt is not conservative. He is a LIBERAL. Look at his voting record.

I know he did a good thing once, in getting a balanced budget. How long did he last?

[Future Useless Eater]

As we get closer and closer to IOWA, most of these polls are turning to sh*t-push polls. I think PPP is the most accurate.

Note the CBS poll has a whopping 36% undecided, so it is trash.
Note the ABC poll keeps secret how many people they counted, so it is trash. I will assume they asked 100 people for weighting purposes.

Note the CNN poll says "436 A" and just like the last several CNN polls, it is as strongly biased toward Romney as it could possibly be without many people screaming 'bullsh*t'.

And I won't count the Gallup poll again until they come to a full set of 5 days in a row that include totally new data, which will be Dec 17th-21st.
...oh, and PS: Gallup has gotten VERY secretive about the internals of their poll, which is another sign it is fudge.

So then PPP poll (which HAS seemed quite accurate for several months) and has the largest sample size, AND it uses Likely Voters, is probably close to correct. But Karl Rove will call it an "outlier" on Fox n Friends.

Note who has been doing the loudest bad-mouthing lately, (Romney, Perry, and Bachmann) and the directions their weighted rolling averages have turned.


IMO, Gingrich never REALLY dipped as close to Willard as this chart would imply, but the lyin' MSM polls made it look that way.


.

with new PPP, CNN, ABC, and CBS polls added ...

Weighted 4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest
20+ Polls listed at RCP   [as of Dec 21st]
plus
YouGov polls 12/10, 12/3, 11/26 11/19, 11/12, 11/5, 10/29, 10/22, 10/15, 10/08, &
Poll Position 12/11, 12/04, 11/27, 11/22, 11/8, 11/1 polls inserted chronologically

Gingrich=29.6%	Romney=23.9%	Paul=11.9%	Bachmann=6.7%	Perry=6.3%	Santorum=3.8%	Huntsman=2.3%	

[...it may be that this chart has grown beyond the capabilities of FR's posting??? If so, see my profile page for the chart.]

(Example methodology for this chart will be on my profile page)


Much like what the government does with unemployment statistics, this chart represents a 4-poll "rolling average" for the latest 20+ polls listed at RealClearPolitics.com (plus other recent national polls).

I also weighted the polls by their size. For example, a poll with a survey size of 1000 was weighted proportionately heavier than an 324 survey size.





(Gingrich-haters, please do not address or reply to me.)