Paul leads in Iowa (PPP Poll -- Paul 23, Romney 20, Gingrich 14, Perry 10)

Public Policy Polling ^ | 12/18/2011

[SeekAndFind]

Newt Gingrich's campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa. He's at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.

Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich's image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has 'strong principles,' while 43% think he does not.

Paul's ascendancy is a sign that perhaps campaigns do matter at least a little, in a year where there has been a lot of discussion about whether they still do in Iowa. 22% of voters think he's run the best campaign in the state compared to only 8% for Gingrich and 5% for Romney. The only other candidate to hit double digits on that question is Bachmann at 19%. Paul also leads Romney 26-5 (with Gingrich at 13%) with the 22% of voters who say it's 'very important' that a candidate spends a lot of time in Iowa. Finally Paul leads Romney 29-19 among the 26% of likely voters who have seen one of the candidates in person.

Paul's base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a Republican contest. Among voters under 45 he's at 33% to 16% for Romney and 11% for Gingrich. He's really going to need that younger than normal electorate because with seniors Romney's blowing him out 31-15 with Gingrich coming in 2nd at 18%. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the 24% of voters who identify as either Democrats or independents. Romney is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters. Young people and non-Republicans are an unusual coalition to hang your hat on in Iowa, and it will be interesting to see if Paul can actually pull it off.

Romney's vote share is up 4 points from a week ago to 20% from it previous 16% standing. His favorability numbers have improved a little bit as well from 48/44 to 49/40. One thing Romney really has going for him is more room for growth than Paul. Among voters who say they're not firmly committed to their current candidate choice, Romney is the second choice for 19% compared to 17% for Perry, 15% for Bachmann, and only 13% for Paul. It's particularly worth noting that among Gingrich- who seems more likely to keep falling than turn it around- voters, he's the second choice of 30% compared to only 11% for Paul.

In addition to having more support right now Paul also has firmer support (73% solidly committed) than Romney does (68% solidly committed.) But at the same time Romney appears to have more room for growth, which could allow him to overtake Paul in the last two weeks.

Two other notes on Romney: he's now winning the electability primary- 25% of voters think he would have the best chance to defeat Obama compared to 17% for Gingrich and 16% for Paul. And he also leads Paul 24-18 among voters who watched the Sioux City debate on Thursday night, confirming general perception that he had the stronger performance.

The rest of the field isn't getting much traction. Among the three candidates tied at 10%, Santorum has gained a couple points compared to last week, Perry has moved up a single point, and Bachmann is down a point. There is some indication that Iowans are warming up to Perry a little bit. He's gone from a -4 (43/47) favorability to a +8 (48/40).

With six candidates in double digits there are still a lot of different things that could happen the final two weeks in Iowa. But it looks like Paul and Romney have emerged as the clear front runners.

[SeekAndFind]

Full Poll results here

[DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis]

ROFLOL!

[vbmoneyspender]

Who did PPP poll - front lawn gnomes?

[Parley Baer]

Not totally sure on this poll but if it is true than the RINO establishment is going to shove Mitt Romney down our throats come hell or high water. I support Newt as the person to stop Mitt.

[bimboeruption]

Just keep talking, Gingrich.

[RIghtwardHo]

Wow. That’s a bit surprising.

But Gingrich has killed himself with his comment on Meet the Press, Face the nation, forget which one, where he said he’d imprison judges. Right, Left or in between, that’s insane and off the rails. I think Gingrich is shocked that he is in the lead and doesn’t really want the nomination.

This is all ridiculous and just sad.

[Gunslingr3]

Not totally sure on this poll but if it is true than the RINO establishment is going to shove Mitt Romney down our throats come hell or high water. I support [insert another establishment RINO] as the person to stop Mitt.

The sound you hear is the establishment laughing all the way to the convention...

[Free Vulcan]

Never believe Party Propaganda Polling.

[Gunslingr3]

But Gingrich has killed himself with his comment on Meet the Press, Face the nation, forget which one, where he said he’d imprison judges.

He said he'd have the marshalls transport them if they refused a Congressional subpoena. Congress can impeach judges, but brilliant Newt walked himself into a minefield, because most folks will misinterpret the soundbite as you have, and he'll sound tyrannical.

[Marcella]

I don’t know what to say except I don’t know what to say. If Paul wins this, Iowa Republican voters need serious therapy.

[Greg67]

PPP surveyed 597 likely Republican caucus voters from December 16 to 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%.

Q14 In 2008 did you vote in the Democratic or
Republican caucus, or did you not vote in a
caucus?
Democratic caucus 13%
.........................................
Republican caucus 55%
..........................................
Didn't vote in a caucus 32%

[PALIN SMITH]

Too bad Dr. Gingrich doesn't know when to keep his big mouth shut!

He's coming across as another Herman Cain.

Not by what de doesn't know...but by his arrogance.

[NordP]

Agreed!

[Antoninus]

These polls are ridiculous. The radical swings mean only one thing—no one has made up their mind yet. I suspect the results will surprise everyone.

[PALIN SMITH]

Gingrich has clouded and cluttered the primaries with too much crap.

A smart campaigner would stick to four or five positions.

Newt is showing off.

He has abolutely no humility!!

Reagan had humility.

[nathanbedford]

When a federal judge wants to compel an appearance in his courtroom he issues a subpoena and orders a federal marshal, if necessary, to bring the person into the court room. I think that's exactly what Gingrich recommended.

Gingrich suggested that if Congress wanted to subpoena a federal judge it issue a subpoena and if the judge refuses to appear, to send the federal marshal to bring him into the hearing room. What is the difference?

Or, if a federal judge declines to appear before a congressional hearing pursuant to a subpoena, he could be subject to impeachment or he could be simply shut down by Congress.

By the way, a federal judge could summarily jail you for what he considers, contumacious conduct in his presence. No jury, no trial, no nothing. Congress cannot do that. Gingrich does not recommend that. By the way, Gingrich never said that he would "imprison judges."

He may or may not have lost ground in hours since appearing on Face the Nation but I hardly think it would've been reflected in this poll. I do think it is important to get the facts right though.

[Jim Robinson]

http://www.newt.org/sites/newt.org/files/Courts.pdf

[bereanway]

So 54% of likely Iowan caucus goers have a favorable view of Ron Paul???? I’m finding it difficult to believe that Paul’s base is that broad in Iowa.

Also interesting is that between Perry, Bachmann and Santorum they account for 30% of the caucus goers. This is the more conservative element of the base and the last thing I want to see is a continued fracturing and allowing a Paul or Romney to somehow slip in. Although, beyond Iowa I just can’t see Paul doing much.

[Jim Robinson]

Paul in the lead is laughable. This poll is propaganda.

[Marcella]

“Agreed!”

Really, how could any sane person vote for Paul as president? Really. It boggles the mind. If Paul wins, I’ll never go to Iowa - I don’t want to be among deranged minds. I mean, really, this is ridiculous.