I own a small business, with 16 employees. I used to have 46 employees, the last few years not being pleasant, but we have survived.
The private sector has been under seige with liberal policies hitting us at every turn. I don’t think my story is atypical, we have survived through hard work, the pain of letting people go, and the adoption of technology to enable efficiency.
We are now lean, and profitable.
The private sector is very, very, resilient and powerful. It’s like a weed, even Obama hasn’t killed us completely. We have re-trenched, and we’re seeing increased consumer activity.
The productivity gains were forced on us, but the productivity gains are there, and this is the reason you haven’t seen the inflation we should be seeing as a result of Obama and Fed policies.
I know one thing for sure-the economy will come back long before you read about it having done so. Econometrics is a rear view mirror only.
I want Obama out as much as any of you, but I’m not so sure we shouldn’t be preparing to defend economic growth that may be occurring, IN SPITE OF Obama. To say they are “cooking the books” may or may not be true, but I’m here to tell you I’m hearing things in retail, commercial real estate, and even construction that defy that conclusion. I could be totally wrong, my evidence is admittedly anecdotal, but something is definitely happening where I am.
There is a tremendous amount of pent-up demand accumulated during this the longest recession in recent memory, and at some point, in spite of the poor tax, regulatory, and investment climate, it could cause somewhat of an uptick, not a boom, but an uptick nonetheless.
We pooh-pooh these economic numbers at our peril, IMHO.
It certainly hasn't been for a lack of trying!
Well, the liberal application of Jobs-B-Gon hasn't helped economic growth.
There are several trends I have noticed over the years that signal the real state of the economy.
First, when pizza delivery prices fall, the economy is in bad trouble. Prices in my area (town of 14k population) have dropped about $2.00 over the last 2-3 years.
Second, when old houses in my area have ‘for sale’ signs, that signals a good economy — because people are upgrading to newer homes. Fewer older homes have ‘for sale’ signs currently.
Third, when and increasing number of houses and apartments in my area have ‘for rent’ signs, that signals a decline in the economy. I have noticed a significant increase in the number of ‘for rent’ signs on dwellings, recently.
>>The private sector is very, very, resilient and powerful. It’s like a weed, even Obama hasn’t killed us completely. We have re-trenched, and we’re seeing increased consumer activity.
...
There is a tremendous amount of pent-up demand accumulated during this the longest recession in recent memory, and at some point, in spite of the poor tax, regulatory, and investment climate, it could cause somewhat of an uptick, not a boom, but an uptick nonetheless.
We pooh-pooh these economic numbers at our peril, IMHO.<<
Great comments, especially the part comparing the private sector to a weed.
I believe you’re correct in warning that we need to prepare for stronger economic numbers in 2012, but my reasoning is top-down; the Fed has expanded the money supply at an absolutely unprecedented rate and in the past that has always driven an upturn in economic activity. That uptick started a few months ago, and from your description of your own situation, is building steam.
The next administration will have a devil of a time unwinding the mess Bernanke has created at the Fed, and it might not be pretty, but if they take the shackles off of private enterprise we could see nearly double-digit real growth for a couple of years. Obama’s administration has frustrated economic growth far more than most people realize.
It would be interesting to learn just how many other owners of businesses see the same sort of pent up demand that you’re seeing.
And another thing, Bernanke’s policies are almost certainly going to cause a spike, perhaps a massive spike, in inflation over the next few years. If that happens, the housing market will cease being a weight on the economy.
This is good news. I hope it's a sign of things to come. I also see some construction work starting up again in my neighborhood, where the homes are 70 years old. I think things have been put off for a couple of years and people are now finding the resources to get these jobs done.