Posted on 12/15/2011 7:19:36 AM PST by sunmars
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits dropped to a 3-1/2 year low last week and factory activity in New York state scaled a seven-month high in December, more evidence of a pick-up in economic activity.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 366,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was the lowest level since May 2008, and confounded economist' expectations for a rise to 390,000.
In a separate report, the New York Federal Reserve said its "Empire State" general business conditions index rose to 9.53 - the highest since May - from 0.61 in December.
The index was boosted by a strong rebound in new orders and an improvement in hiring.
"It all speaks to further stabilization and a very positive trend in the U.S. economy. Stability in the U.S. economy is going to be a vital part of stabilizing global GDP. This comes in a very good time," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital in Jersey City, New Jersey.
The unexpected drop in claims last week pushed them closer to the 350,000 mark that analysts say signals labor market strength.
It offered further proof of increased momentum in the pace of economic activity, even though retail sales rose modestly in November. This is in sharp contrast to Europe, where the festering debt crisis has already pushed some economies into recession.
The Federal Reserve on Tuesday acknowledged the improvement in the jobs market, but said unemployment remained high. The jobless rate dropped to a 2-1/2 year low of 8.6 percent in November.
The U.S. central bank said the debt crisis gripping Europe was a big risk to the U.S. economy, which it described as "expanding moderately".
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
It certainly hasn't been for a lack of trying!
Tax Prep companies hiring too - how many of those finding jobs have only part time / seasonal employment? I’ll wait for the adjusted numbers in a week or so.
Well, the liberal application of Jobs-B-Gon hasn't helped economic growth.
The “cook the numbers so the destruction of America can continue,” continues. How ‘bout that HUGH drop in unemployment last month? Yeah, right. Put some potatoes, carrots, celery and beef in with those numbers and we can have lunch.
There are several trends I have noticed over the years that signal the real state of the economy.
First, when pizza delivery prices fall, the economy is in bad trouble. Prices in my area (town of 14k population) have dropped about $2.00 over the last 2-3 years.
Second, when old houses in my area have ‘for sale’ signs, that signals a good economy — because people are upgrading to newer homes. Fewer older homes have ‘for sale’ signs currently.
Third, when and increasing number of houses and apartments in my area have ‘for rent’ signs, that signals a decline in the economy. I have noticed a significant increase in the number of ‘for rent’ signs on dwellings, recently.
Seasonally unadjusted dropped somehow by a ridiculous 95,506. All those thousands of bankers being laid off this week must not be people - that explains it? And the stunner: those added to extended benefits was a whopping 332K, an unprecedent large number for a weekly change.
A new tactic of hiring in the professional ranks is: less than 6 month contract terms. Someone on unemployment accepts one of these positions and works for 5 to 6 months. Just shy of 6 mos, the contract is up and they are let go again. Not having worked 2 full quarters - in most cases they are not eligible for UE. They end up unemployed, again, and not eligible or counted.
Again, what is the participation rate? In the crapper as usual.
THe thousands of Santas and Toys R Us and mall part-timers will join the ranks of the unemployed on Christmas Day. If that doesn’t show up in the retail numbers for Jan., it will prove the government’s numbers are bogus.
>>Lots of part-time Christmas hires. There will be a big drop in the January and February numbers.<<
Nope, the numbers are seasonally adjusted. I said months ago that given the massive monetary growth Bernanke has fostered, the economy would be picking up going into 2012. It’s happening, and it’s likely to continue.
We won’t win the next election by concentrating on a failing economy, because it’s improving. A better strategy will be to concentrate on all the regulations Obama and his czars have implemented that have frustrated normal economic growth, because you’re right, the growth we’re seeing is anemic compared to normal recoveries.
Most companies will wait until after Christmas to announce impending layoffs. It’s the Grinch/Scrooge meme.
The 3-4 weeks prior to Christmas have historically always been the lowest unemployment claims.
>>Seasonally unadjusted dropped somehow by a ridiculous 95,506. <<
As I said in the post above this one a bit, the reported number is seasonally adjusted. Actual employment always rises going into the Christmas season, but most of it is temporary.
It will fall dramatically, after Christmas, on the order of 500-800,000, but those numbers will be adjusted too, and the result might even be a further fall in the total applying for unemployment.
Deja vu all over again. We did this drill two weeks ago. The orignal rosy report was was revised upward the next week. This has been the persistent pattern ever since the Marxist Onada and his commie buddies usurped the WH.
>>The private sector is very, very, resilient and powerful. It’s like a weed, even Obama hasn’t killed us completely. We have re-trenched, and we’re seeing increased consumer activity.
...
There is a tremendous amount of pent-up demand accumulated during this the longest recession in recent memory, and at some point, in spite of the poor tax, regulatory, and investment climate, it could cause somewhat of an uptick, not a boom, but an uptick nonetheless.
We pooh-pooh these economic numbers at our peril, IMHO.<<
Great comments, especially the part comparing the private sector to a weed.
I believe you’re correct in warning that we need to prepare for stronger economic numbers in 2012, but my reasoning is top-down; the Fed has expanded the money supply at an absolutely unprecedented rate and in the past that has always driven an upturn in economic activity. That uptick started a few months ago, and from your description of your own situation, is building steam.
The next administration will have a devil of a time unwinding the mess Bernanke has created at the Fed, and it might not be pretty, but if they take the shackles off of private enterprise we could see nearly double-digit real growth for a couple of years. Obama’s administration has frustrated economic growth far more than most people realize.
It would be interesting to learn just how many other owners of businesses see the same sort of pent up demand that you’re seeing.
And another thing, Bernanke’s policies are almost certainly going to cause a spike, perhaps a massive spike, in inflation over the next few years. If that happens, the housing market will cease being a weight on the economy.
Another factor is that we are at the end of the quarter for unemployment filing.
How it works...
If you file in Oct-Nov-Dec they will calculate your unemployment benefit based on your earnings from Oct ‘10-Sept ‘11.
But if wait until Jan to file, it will be a new quarter and they will calculate based on Jan-Dec. Meaning if you got a raise/new job in mid year etc you would get a larger benefit.
My wife for example was just laid off and we are waiting 3 weeks to file in Jan as opposed to filing now. Her salary was greater from Jan-Dec vs Oct-Sep.
>>Another factor is that we are at the end of the quarter for unemployment filing.<<
The numbers are seasonally adjusted. That means that patterns that recur every year like clockwork get seasonally adjusted out. The phenomenon you describe, if it actually does affect behavior, is one of those that would be adjusted for.
We need to come to grips with the possibility that the economy is improving and that we will not have the economy of the past 3 years to campaign on. That will make it tougher, but anticipating it will help. Ignoring it or denying it will just cause us to go into the campaign with blinders on and we’ll look like fools trying to deny the obvious (by that time, if growth continues, as it is likely to do.)
Good point. Of course, there must be some people whose Oct. 2010-Sept. 2011 income was higher and thus would prefer to file before Dec. 31.
For the vast majority of workers, either the benefits have already run out - and they have nowhere to turn - or in sheer desperation they’re taking on substandard, burger-flipping tasks.
So-called “new applications” doesn’t tell much of a tale about what’s happening nation-wide.
First of all, these are “applications” for UNemployment insurance, not for employment. Secondly, it is a national number, so it does in fact tell us what is happening “nation-wide.”
I’ll keep saying it: we need to come to grips with the possibility that Obama is going to go into the 2012 election with an expanding economy at his back. Failing to consider that is going to get the GOP candidate blind-sided if it does indeed happen.
I eagerly await the front page headlines when this number is “unexpectedly” revised upward over 400k.
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