Posted on 12/14/2011 5:30:22 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
It’s now a three-way race before voting begins for the Republican presidential nomination. as either Newt Gringrich, Mitt Romney, or Rick Perry will be the GOP standard-bearer to challenge President Obama.
The same pundits that have confidently miscalled the GOP race all along are now declaring it’s a two-way race between former Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Governor Mitt Romney.
They’re wrong. Either man might be the nominee, but not necessarily.
Romney is the former frontrunner. He’s educated, polished, and has tremendous private-sector success and some high-level public experience. He even has a picturesque family.
But a majority of Republican primary voters do not support this consummate establishment candidate. He has a record of flip-flopping on issues that should be consistent because they should arise from a personal worldview and set of core principles that usually hold steady throughout a person’s adult life.
Newt is the current frontrunner. He’s brilliant, knowledgeable, articulate, and experienced across a wide spectrum of policy and political issues.
But he has serious weaknesses. There are matters of personal conduct that shock many core Republican primary voters, and policy issues such as previously believing the federal government can impose a healthcare individual mandate or pursue cap-and-trade to more recent issues involving immigration.
There’s also a bombastic tendency, seen in kicking a Middle-East hornet’s nest with the Palestinians, backhanding Paul Ryan’s reform plans, and attacking capitalism by vilifying Romney’s business success.
And Newt tops it off by proposing that instead of three coequal branches in our federal government, Congress and the president should destroy judicial independence by subjugating the federal courts. This would abolish the courts’ power to uphold the Constitution when the political branches violate it (such as with Obamacare).
But there’s no perfect candidate. So all that said, one of them might win the nomination and become the next president of the United States.
However, these flaws are sufficiently serious that there is room for a third candidate to emerge. Romney is stable but has not been able to rise above 25 percent. Gingrich has had a meteoric rise but could misstep and implode just as quickly.
Who could it be? Filing deadlines are past in many states and talk of a brokered convention is fanciful; it’s almost certainly someone currently on the stage.
Jon Huntsman is at low single digits because he’s shown contempt for the GOP base and he’s about as exciting as reading the Economist, so it won’t be him. And despite the thrill at rebelling against the machine that drives so many people—especially young people—to support Ron Paul, he might be the only literally unelectable Republican in the field.
That leaves three. Of them, Rick Santorum has tremendous policy expertise. Michele Bachmann is short on public experience, but has a great personal story and private-sector experience.
But they don’t have money or organization. Even a surprise win in Iowa—which won’t happen—wouldn’t bring money in fast enough to build a national team and saturate the media markets in the other January contests.
Which leaves Governor Perry. A long-serving governor of America’s second-largest state, Perry has executive experience and an almost-perfect record on economic, social, and national-security issues. Three of the best lines from the last debate were his—seeing the big picture on Newt’s Palestinian comments, knowing Obama should have recovered or destroyed our stealth drone, and declaring that securing the borders will change the national mood enough to discuss long-term immigration reform.
Moreover, he has tons of campaign cash and a large organization. And coupled with pushing for a flat tax and Balanced Budget Amendment, his support for guns, marriage, and faith will help in Iowa and South Carolina.
If Romney or Gingrich falter, Perry might take it all.
Unfortunately, his multiple, prior, horrid performances may have cemented a picture of him as a doofus in the GOP voters mind. So far, that's what the polls show.
I guess we'll know in a couple of months after a few primaries.
If you’re waiting for Perry to sound glib and fast talking like Newt, or be as smooth and non-committal as Romney, don’t even bother.
Most people are pretty happy with Perry’s last couple of debates and extremely happy with all his interviews and appearances on various shows, including Leno.
But if that’s what’s important to you, vote Newt.
If you think about most of the debate structures, they single out the "front-runners" with the more controversial topics, give them first shot at answering the questions, while the others have time to reflect, collect, and prepare for a response that may be unique to the others or bring out additional things to think about.
I think this is a big reason why Gingrich shined in the early debates when he was a second-tier candidate, and it helped him to appear more likeable and less "mean" to the other candidates.
Romney has pretty much been a top-tier candidate since the beginning, and has thus been involved in ALL of the spats and difficult questions as a first responder. Overall, that hasn't helped him. He's a good debater and has handled the questions effectively for the most part, but he's still been exposed to the scrutiny he wouldn't have if he was lower in the pecking order.
I also think this is one reason Bachmann had a good debate the other night.
You'll be a happy camper when Perry is the nominee and he will be.
I wish this book had never needed to be written.
It almost came too late.
America is recklessly accelerating toward economic disaster. Fed Up! may be the last warning sign to the danger that lies ahead.
Rick Perry, Texas governor for the past decade, is uniquely qualified to offer a firsthand perspective on why the United States—the most successful civilization in human history—is being threatened with economic collapse.
First Principles
Faith, freedom, and free enterprise are the pillars of a strong, safe, prosperous society. Rick knows that when these principles are protected, America succeeds, and when they are undermined, America fails. But the Left has a different belief. The Left believes that most people are not capable of pursuing happiness and that a strong centralized government is best able to provide for them. While claiming compassion for humanity, the Left's policies are destructive to the human beings subject to them—as we have had to learn painfully again and again.
The Left's self-serving solution to every crisis, economic or otherwise, and many of their own doing, is always the same: inflict higher taxes on Americans to create more government programs with more rules and regulations that result in less freedom, less innovation, less safety, and less prosperity.
The problem with the Left’s one solution, as Rick forcefully explains in the pages that follow, is that it doesn't work. It's never worked, and it never will work. The record shows it.
But what the record also shows is that when power and freedom are returned to the people, when people are rewarded for work, and when government holds the line on spending, individuals and opportunity thrive. We have seen that result most spectacularly recently in Texas, and in the mid-1990s with the Contract with America Congress, when I served as Speaker of the House.
The Texas Record
Upon taking office, President Barack Obama repeatedly said that he was open to ideas on health care policy and on reversing the economic crisis. But he had to look no further than Texas to see ideas and policies that work.
Texas has no state income tax, no capital gains tax, and no tax on corporate dividends. In contrast, California taxes all three. It has the highest state income tax rates in the nation, with a top rate of 10.3 percent and with most income earners paying 9.3 percent. The California sales tax stands at 8.25 percent. In Texas, the state sales tax rate is 6.25 percent. With both the highest personal income tax and the highest state sales tax in the nation, California also has the largest budget deficit of any state.
Texas has economically outperformed California by any measure. Since 1998, economic growth in Texas has been nearly 20 percent higher than it is in California. Since the end of the tech boom, the rate of real economic growth in Texas has been 48.5 percent higher than in California. From 1998 to 2007, personal income in Texas grew 21 percent faster than in California. Since 2002, real personal income has grown 46 percent faster in Texas. From 2000 to 2007, California lost a net of 1.2 million residents. Texas, over the same period, gained more than half a million in interstate migration, the third highest in the country.
Prior to 2003, Texas was losing doctors at an alarming rate due to predatory practices of trial lawyers who were driving up the cost of malpractice insurance. In 2003, the Texas legislature passed a measure to limit medical liability. In that same year, a state constitutional amendment was approved by voters to cap noneconomic damages awarded by juries. These two provisions reversed the trend and improved care, accessibility, and the overall economy by making Texas a more attractive place to live, work, and own a business. Malpractice claims dropped, and physician recruitment and retention went up. Doctors saved more than $50 million on insurance premiums, and hospitals' insurance rates went down.
People in Texas, like anyone living in any state, have a choice. They can vote with their feet. Many living in California simply became fed up with their state's high taxes and regulations. Many who moved out moved to Texas, where on average they are safer, freer, and more prosperous. Competition among the states is a powerful incentive for states to keep taxes and the cost of doing business low. And as this California versus Texas example shows, conservative economic policies work and socialist policies don't.
Yet both the Obama administration and the Pelosi-Reid Congress continue to ignore success stories like Texas. They are going in the opposite direction, passing a massive government takeover of health care while planning similarly massive tax increases to pay for it and for the rest of their job-killing agenda.
Now, it may not be surprising that a politician from Chicago would not naturally look to the Lone Star State for solutions. And you wouldn't expect a Texas governor to look in Illinois for answers (thankfully).
And that is precisely the point of this book. States have been called laboratories in democracy precisely because every problem potentially has fifty different approaches to solving it. Some solutions work in some states and not in others. Some states prefer some solutions over others. Some solutions may work in every state, and some just don't work at all. But the best way to find the best solutions is to allow the states to discover what works best for them, without the federal government interfering.
In today' s global economy, each state is competing not only with other states for businesses, workers, and investors but also on a global level. The fact is, with the right principles and policies, you can make any place rich, as happened in Hong Kong.
Unfortunately, the opposite applies as well. With the wrong principles and the wrong policies, you can make any place poor, as happened in Detroit. In 1950, 1.8 million people called Detroit home. It ranked first in median income of all major cities in America. But after Detroit's political leaders, ignoring the principles of freedom and free markets, governed with runaway government spending and taxes, Detroit shrank by more than half. Today, the Motor City is number 66 in median household income in a list of 68 major American cities. One-third of its residents are living below the poverty line, and the unemployment rate is the highest of any major metropolitan area in the country.
Romney is supposed to be this 'debater extraordinaire' - but Perry has had this ability to turn him into a sputtering, gambling idiot.
No. It would be like saying term limiting presidents abolishes their power to be commander in chief or vetoing laws; or that by requiring congressmen to stand for election abolishes their power to pass legislation or set budgets.
Perry is organized in Iowa and could pull off a 3rd place showing it would be huge. Even 4th with double digits would be good.
Then you take it to NH where Newt,Mitt, Huntsman and Paul will duke it out. Perry will most likley head to South Carolina (and I'm guessing with a Nikki Haley endorsement) to campaign until SC Primary.
By this time Santorum, HUntsman and Bachmann will be gone with Newt and MItt somewhat bloodied and Paul inconsequential.
Bring it to Florida for the big show and now the game has changed big time.
This is a marathon and everyone has played it as a sprint jumping to every front runner that shows up instead of sticking with the candidate that represents them the best.
Excellent! Thanks.
Unfortunately, this site seems to no longer be a grass roots gathering place to work for real conservatives. Instead the ebb and flow here seems to go with whichever candidate sounds the best at the moment and looks like a winner with the exception of Mitt Romney.
I have to wonder how the same folks who loved Sarah Palin for her genuine conservative values can now support either of the 2 frontrunners?
Once the concensus here was that only Bachmann, Perry and Cain were acceptable but now that Cain has dropped out it seems that somehow Newt has become an acceptable conservatve and in some cases the ONLY acceptable candidate.
Now how the heck did that happen? Yes Newt might seem to better than Mitt but only a tad IMHO and I will only support him if he is the last man standing.
I still stand with Governor Perry and hope that folks here that are genuine conservatives will not jump on a candidate’s train again just because the engine sounds good at the momemt.
What is Newt’s stand on Gun Control? (hint: thumb print scans)
What Uniform did Newt wear?
What is Newt’s stand on Illegal Immigration?
Is he for Amnesty?
Did Newt support Obamacare?
What is Newt’s stand on United Nations?
What Speaker of the House was convicted of Congressional Ethic Charges? (there has been only one)
You may not care about 25 year old rhetoric and propaganda on Newt but it will all come up during the general election if Newt is nominated...... by.......Obama.
Who said that Paul Ryan’s proposed reform of Medicare was “right wing social engineering” and that it was no better than the “left wing” variety on Meet The Press?
Sounds like you had some day.
I found this on Gingrich and his GA gathering.
http://savannahnow.com/news/2011-12-14/more-60-prominent-georgians-endorse-new-president
Very good point
Thank you...yes, it was one of those days we all have had, and wouldn’t want to repeat. The reason I fell asleep trying to find out about the Newt presser was because the day left me exhausted.
I see Newt wasn’t there...silly me, I thought this would be Newt holding a presser...but alas, no.
According to the article, these endorsers were all on record before in support of Newt, except for one, a newbie Newtster.
I guess they wanted to make a big splash with the group endorsement, but here on FR I couldn’t even find a ripple...
As the current system is set up now, all of the lifetime judges are lame ducks. As long as they don’t run afoul of the “high crimes and misdemeanors” they have a lifetime ticket to go completely crazy in their rulings, AND totally and completely castrate the Legislative and Executive branches, with NO checks and balances. They are defacto dictators.
My dream would be Governor Perry out on his bus tour and Sarah Palin just happens to drop over for a little boost of his campaign—just a little boost.
Cool bus.
Iowans, meet our Governor Perry.
Governor, heeeeeeeerrrrrr’s IOWA!!!
Great List!!
Let’s not forget Obozo had to have TOTUS tell him what to say when he visited the classroom of school children. I think Obozo will freeze up when Gov. Perry looks at him with that look (”Adios, m...f...”).
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