Posted on 12/14/2011 5:30:22 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Its now a three-way race before voting begins for the Republican presidential nomination. as either Newt Gringrich, Mitt Romney, or Rick Perry will be the GOP standard-bearer to challenge President Obama.
The same pundits that have confidently miscalled the GOP race all along are now declaring its a two-way race between former Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Governor Mitt Romney.
Theyre wrong. Either man might be the nominee, but not necessarily.
Romney is the former frontrunner. Hes educated, polished, and has tremendous private-sector success and some high-level public experience. He even has a picturesque family.
But a majority of Republican primary voters do not support this consummate establishment candidate. He has a record of flip-flopping on issues that should be consistent because they should arise from a personal worldview and set of core principles that usually hold steady throughout a persons adult life.
Newt is the current frontrunner. Hes brilliant, knowledgeable, articulate, and experienced across a wide spectrum of policy and political issues.
But he has serious weaknesses. There are matters of personal conduct that shock many core Republican primary voters, and policy issues such as previously believing the federal government can impose a healthcare individual mandate or pursue cap-and-trade to more recent issues involving immigration.
Theres also a bombastic tendency, seen in kicking a Middle-East hornets nest with the Palestinians, backhanding Paul Ryans reform plans, and attacking capitalism by vilifying Romneys business success.
And Newt tops it off by proposing that instead of three coequal branches in our federal government, Congress and the president should destroy judicial independence by subjugating the federal courts. This would abolish the courts power to uphold the Constitution when the political branches violate it (such as with Obamacare).
But theres no perfect candidate. So all that said, one of them might win the nomination and become the next president of the United States.
However, these flaws are sufficiently serious that there is room for a third candidate to emerge. Romney is stable but has not been able to rise above 25 percent. Gingrich has had a meteoric rise but could misstep and implode just as quickly.
Who could it be? Filing deadlines are past in many states and talk of a brokered convention is fanciful; its almost certainly someone currently on the stage.
Jon Huntsman is at low single digits because hes shown contempt for the GOP base and hes about as exciting as reading the Economist, so it wont be him. And despite the thrill at rebelling against the machine that drives so many peopleespecially young peopleto support Ron Paul, he might be the only literally unelectable Republican in the field.
That leaves three. Of them, Rick Santorum has tremendous policy expertise. Michele Bachmann is short on public experience, but has a great personal story and private-sector experience.
But they dont have money or organization. Even a surprise win in Iowawhich wont happenwouldnt bring money in fast enough to build a national team and saturate the media markets in the other January contests.
Which leaves Governor Perry. A long-serving governor of Americas second-largest state, Perry has executive experience and an almost-perfect record on economic, social, and national-security issues. Three of the best lines from the last debate were hisseeing the big picture on Newts Palestinian comments, knowing Obama should have recovered or destroyed our stealth drone, and declaring that securing the borders will change the national mood enough to discuss long-term immigration reform.
Moreover, he has tons of campaign cash and a large organization. And coupled with pushing for a flat tax and Balanced Budget Amendment, his support for guns, marriage, and faith will help in Iowa and South Carolina.
If Romney or Gingrich falter, Perry might take it all.
I’m not counting anyone out until somebody actually casts a vote. :)
The Perry Plan: Energizing American Jobs and Security
The Perry Economic Plan: Cut, Balance and Grow
Texas, Austin exception to gloomy retail picture
The Truth Cannot Be Bought [1:02] Rick Perry
It's very exciting and much, much better than all the "The year in review" stories we hate in those years w/o presidential elections.
And this election means we will be voting in a new president next year!
I know debates aren’t everything. And unlike popular opinion, they certainly don’t show or hide intelligence. But man, Perry’s debate performances overall are horrible. The reason this really bothers me is I see a George Bush like performance against Obama in debates and I’m not sure that’s going to cut it to win the Presidency. We need someone who’s going to take it to Obama!! I don’t know that Perry can do that face to face or even on the stump.
I never counted Perry out. My opinion is that the only person standing in the way of Romney is Perry. Early on I thought Pawlenty (before Perry declared) might be the Romney stopper, but he never got traction.
Newt’s going to peter out just as Cain did. Once the DBM starts piling on, he won’t be able to surface for air.
If the Gingrich voters go to Perry, Romney can be stopped.
Many have not given Perry a second or third look because he is not “golden tongued”. To those people, I say pick your poison. Perry or Romney.
Disclosure: I’m not crazy about any of the candidates, but will not sit this one out. I’ll pick the most conservative one I believe can beat Obama. Wish Gov. McDonnell or Sen. DeMint were running.
I know it’s become common practice to repeat the MSM line but Rick Perry has delivered some good comments (and some clunkers) in the debates and as mentioned in the article the last one was great.
As to his town halls and stumping — he’s renowned for it. He is known as a superb retail politics campaigner.
Here is an article and an interactive map with his next 2 week schedule in Iowa.
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Thank you for the comments.
“Drudge,” who is friends with Mitt Romney’s campaign manager, has Ron Paul as his lead picture and story. The Romney camp needs Paul to do well and diminish Gingrich going into NH. But giving Paul anymore traction improves chances he’ll mount a 3rd party run. Enter Obama-2.
With voters moving to Perry it will be a new election (no-Romney).
No Obama.
10th Amendment President Perry.
Thanks shield.
So, how does Perry, running at 7.2% against Newt, at 33.4% and Romney still stuck at 22%, with Bachmann and Paul sitting ahead of him, make you think that Perry even has a remote chance?
I must have been watching a different debate than you were.
Perry shined.
“If Romney or Gingrich falter, Perry might take it all.”
Gentlemen, start your faltering. For your country.
I like primary season gives every one a chance to become involved. Your enthusiasm is impressive. I will not vote for Perry in the primary but I am ABO in the general. I am currently leaning towards Santorum
What is there to debate?
Obama sucks.
Film at 11. [tape delayed to 11:45]
That's my question about Gingrich. He's made a lot of counter-conservative statements in the past i.e. AGW, and now supposedly rejects them. Is he serious about his changes? Perry certainly hasn't distinguished himself with his public speaking during this campaign, but I'll bet he's the most solid conservative with a proven track record.
That's my question about Gingrich. He's made a lot of counter-conservative statements in the past i.e. AGW, and now supposedly rejects them. Is he serious about his changes? Perry certainly hasn't distinguished himself with his public speaking during this campaign, but I'll bet he's the most solid conservative with a proven track record.
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