Newt: I Will be the Nominee

CNS News ^ | 2 December 2011 | Rich Galen

[IbJensen]

We can say this about our friend Newt Gingrich: He has never suffered from public self-doubt.

On the strength of a string of polls showing the GOP conservative base has fallen in love with him Newt told ABC News' Jake Tapper: "I'm going to be the nominee. It's very hard not to look at the recent polls and think that the odds are very high I'm going to be the nominee."

A Rasmussen poll which was taken on Wednesday shows Newt with 38 percent to Mitt Romney's 17 percent among likely voters. Even being mathematically challenged I know that is a 21 percentage point lead.

The rest of the field is in single digits: Cain & Paul are at 8; Perry, Bachmann and Santorum are at 4, and Huntsman continues to trail the field with three percent.

If there were a national primary and it was scheduled for this Saturday, Newt would probably be correct. He might be correct anyway, but it's a little early to be taking a victory lap.

The Iowa caucuses will not occur until a month from tomorrow. New Hampshire is a week later. South Carolina will be held on January 21 and the Florida primary will be ten days after that.

I have not focused on anything past Florida but it bears looking at.

In February the states which will choose delegates are Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and Michigan.

March will bring 19 states into focus including 10 on March 6

Eight states will select delegates in April. Seven in May and seven states will wrap up the process in June including California and New Jersey on June 5

This is December 2 and there is likely to be a long way to go.

Dear Mr. Mullings:

What if Newt wins Iowa and South Carolina and generates enough forward momentum to win Florida?

Signed, The National Debate Scheduling Association

That would certainly help make Gingrich's case, but keep in mind that under Republican National Committee rules any caucus or primary held before April, "… shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a proportional basis."

Whoa! Really? So the bulk of primaries and caucuses will be decided on a proportional basis instead of the traditional winner-take-all.

That's sort of the way the Dems have done it and it is what led to Hillary and Obama duking it out through June four years ago.

Proportional awarding of delegates means that as long as a candidate doesn't get skunked in a big state, he or she will be able to stay in the game for a long time - so long as the money keeps coming in.

What it also means is that someone like Gingrich will probably not be able to claim victory even if he outright wins Iowa, South Carolina and Florida because he is unlikely to win any of those with 100 percent of the votes.

On the other hand, Obama didn't have to win any state with 100 percent of the votes to have built up an insurmountable lead over Mrs. Clinton in the waning days of the Democratic primary season four years ago.

He won by enough so that Clinton had to win an overwhelming victory in some of the later states to be able to catch up.

The California and New Jersey primaries, because they occur in June, will be winner-take-all and June 5 might be the day that decides this nominating fight.

That's a couple of days more than six months from now.

As I have told you, I have packed up my crystal ball and put it in the hall closet so I have no idea if this will go all the way to next June, but I am pretty sure that Newt claiming to be the nominee a month before the first Hawkeye trudges into the first high school gym is, at best, premature and at worst, an example of dangerous Newtonian hubris.

On the Secret Decoder Ring today: A link to the ABC News interview in which Newt claims he will be the nominee; one to that Rasmussen poll, and one to the Wikipedia list of primary dates. Also an amusing Mullfoto and a Catchy Caption of the Day calling into question the sufficiency of a border fence with Mexico.

[sodpoodle]

****tax-exempt status for a college course run for political purposes****

ONE college course against the total indoctrination by all other left wing, tax-supported institutions of higher propaganda.

Newt should get an A+ for effort - and he was FINED??????

[freedumb2003]

>>Although Newt is highly flawed, I would probably vote for him in the general.

The reason for this is I believe that despite his flaws, he could and likely would do serious damage to the leftist agenda. (Ironically, the challenge would be to keep him from advancing it, some of the time.)
<<

Based on FR, the only possible candidate is to exhume President Reagan. And even THEN, a large percentage would keep hammering on the very-real amnesty he signed.

Remember the FR rules: If you don’t support MY candidate you are a romney-loving, pinko, illegal-alien supporting gay POS posting from your mother’s basement.

[org.whodat]

He was convicted of lying to the committee, understand, lying to the committee. They, the congress, are not into convicting people for tax violations. The tax crap is a red herring. Lying to the committee, repeat real slow lying to the committee. Congress does not enforce tax law and made no finding to that issue, they are not a tax court. The issue was lying to the committee and it was over 84 charges one of which involved taxes..

[jpsb]

Newt can change positions as easily as a high dollar hooker.

[Trteamer]

I like Newt. I like the answers he has been giving in the debates. I frankly don’t give a rat’s behind about his past....It doesn’t matter as he is now a mature statesman with serious thoughtful answers. Compared to Obama, there is no question he has my vote.

[libstripper]

"With the rule change in many states, it will be a long primary season and Newt is a ticking time bomb about to explode." If Newt were only the Newt we've seen and admired at the debates, then I'd be wholeheartedly for him. Unfortunately, as often pointed out here, he isn't and the other Newt is a vile, compromised creature. Not as often mentioned as it should be is is the disorganized way he ran the House that led to the revolt by manmy pubbies, a situation that casts serious doubt over his ability to run the presidency if he gets elected. Such an election might well produce a president who's as thoroughly disliked as the Illegal is now and another repudiation of the Republican party, something we absolutely don't need.

[jpsb]

"I like Newt. I like the answers he has been giving in the debates"

Newt is an exceptionally good liar.

[libstripper]

Whatever, dude. Now do the same thing for Obama and tell us which one you prefer in the White House, the self-aggrandizing, egotistical history professor who participated in the corrupt Washington culture for the past 20 years and who wants to be thought of as a Reagan or Thatcher, or the America-hating Marxist who wants to tear the country to the ground so his socialist and muslim buddies can come in and remake it in their own Sharia Shangrila? Some perspective might help with your anger issues.

You've put the diffrerence between Newt and the Illegal very well. Given the choice, I'd vote for Newt. The imperative is not to be faced with that choice.

[Colonel_Flagg]

If Newt Mexico ever debated Baraq, they couldn’t find a room big enough to hold both their egos.

Big government Marxist versus big government “conservative”. No thanks.

[kempster]

I wonder who the media will out next. Eventually we will have two choices and you all know who they are.

[not2worry]

I haven't kept count of that - I did start a “shots” game for the words Fundamentally and Reagan..........while watching the debates - don't recommend - terrible headache the next morning!

[not2worry]

Newt and Obama are both Narcissists. Just what we need in the White House:

Definition based on Mayo Clinic Research:

Narcissistic personality disorder is a mental disorder in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance and a deep need for admiration. Those with narcissistic personality disorder believe that they're superior to others and have little regard for other people's feelings. But behind this mask of ultra-confidence lies a fragile self-esteem, vulnerable to the slightest criticism.

Last sentence explains Newt's well know mean streak and temper tantrums.

[not2worry]

I agree with you! Thought you would like a clinical description of Newt's and Obama’s narcissism:

Via Mayo Clinic:

Narcissistic personality disorder is a mental disorder in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance and a deep need for admiration. Those with narcissistic personality disorder believe that they're superior to others and have little regard for other people's feelings. But behind this mask of ultra-confidence lies a fragile self-esteem, vulnerable to the slightest criticism.

[Old Sarge]

Remember the FR rules: If you don’t support MY candidate you are a romney-loving, pinko, illegal-alien supporting gay POS posting from your mother’s basement.

DING DING DING We have a WINNAH!

Christ himself couldn't make it on FR because he cavorted with whores and tax collectors.

Reagan was a RINO because he cut and ran from Lebanon, raised taxes and granted amnesty to illegals.

Conservatives shoot their wounded and eat their young alive.

[bitterohiogunclinger]

“He was convicted of lying to the committee, understand, lying to the committee. They, the congress, are not into convicting people for tax violations. The tax crap is a red herring. Lying to the committee, repeat real slow lying to the committee. Congress does not enforce tax law and made no finding to that issue, they are not a tax court. The issue was lying to the committee and it was over 84 charges one of which involved taxes.”

Ummm,no. He was censured and fined $300,000 for violating “House Rules”, and it was actually only 1 of 84 “charges” lodged against him by his DemoRAT opponent in the GA race. 83 of 84 “charges” were dropped after “the committee” succeeded in derailing him. Nazi Pelosi was one of “the committee”. I'm sure that fact alone demonstrates that there were no political dirty tricks being employed.

I'm not advocating for or against “the Newt”. I'm simply stating the fact that DemonRATs have a long history of bringing down anyone that gets in the way of their agenda by bringing up endless “ethics” charges and investigations, but somehow never seem to be able to get around to investigating their own. Rangel, Waters, Pelosi?

[kjo]

Agreed...compared to Romney, Newt is the second coming of Reagan.

Hope during the debates he asks Obama about his lack of a hard copy of this “birth certificate”, why he has a social security number issued in Connecticut, and where his school and passport records are?

See Maureen Dowd in today’s NYTs...complaining about Newt’s senior thesis...and what it shows about him...notice she doesn’t seem to notice that Obama doesn’t have one we can see.

Facts like this bother liberals not at all.

[altura]

I think it would be extremely risky to put a black man or a woman up right now.

Maybe Sarah Palin could have done it. Give it up about Cain. He took himself out.

We’ve already forgiven Newt his on the couch with Nancy thing. We’ve forgiven his marital ups and downs.

We are on the verge of investing all our hopes and dreams in Gingrich, just like we did with Palin and Cain.

It’s not the end of the world, as long as everyone remembers what you see with Newt is not necessarily what you’ll get in a president.

However, if he can get rid of Obama and settle down just a little bit to be a more effective leader than he was 13 years ago, it won’t be the end of the world.

[Cvengr]

If Newt can’t remain faithful to his wife of many years, why would anybody expect him to remain faithful to a political party?

[Riodacat]

Gingrich is an adulterous-admittedly misognynistic-draft dodging check bouncer.
He was an adulterous husband and a deadbeat dad.
Gingrich is a LIAR.

Yah, but he's our adulterous-admittedly misognynistic-draft dodging, check bouncing, adulterous, deadbeat, lying candidate.
Those are not character flaws which disqualify you from running for high office (at least in today's America).
So get off your high horse and get on the Gingrich train before it leaves the station...

[org.whodat]

Even when the republicans have the majority they are run by the minority. Is that what you are saying. And the vote was overwhelming that he lied, negotiated down to one item. He still lied.