Posted on 12/04/2011 5:23:58 AM PST by IbJensen
We can say this about our friend Newt Gingrich: He has never suffered from public self-doubt.
On the strength of a string of polls showing the GOP conservative base has fallen in love with him Newt told ABC News' Jake Tapper: "I'm going to be the nominee. It's very hard not to look at the recent polls and think that the odds are very high I'm going to be the nominee."
A Rasmussen poll which was taken on Wednesday shows Newt with 38 percent to Mitt Romney's 17 percent among likely voters. Even being mathematically challenged I know that is a 21 percentage point lead.
The rest of the field is in single digits: Cain & Paul are at 8; Perry, Bachmann and Santorum are at 4, and Huntsman continues to trail the field with three percent.
If there were a national primary and it was scheduled for this Saturday, Newt would probably be correct. He might be correct anyway, but it's a little early to be taking a victory lap.
The Iowa caucuses will not occur until a month from tomorrow. New Hampshire is a week later. South Carolina will be held on January 21 and the Florida primary will be ten days after that.
I have not focused on anything past Florida but it bears looking at.
In February the states which will choose delegates are Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and Michigan.
March will bring 19 states into focus including 10 on March 6
Eight states will select delegates in April. Seven in May and seven states will wrap up the process in June including California and New Jersey on June 5
This is December 2 and there is likely to be a long way to go.
Dear Mr. Mullings:
What if Newt wins Iowa and South Carolina and generates enough forward momentum to win Florida?
Signed, The National Debate Scheduling Association
That would certainly help make Gingrich's case, but keep in mind that under Republican National Committee rules any caucus or primary held before April, "… shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a proportional basis."
Whoa! Really? So the bulk of primaries and caucuses will be decided on a proportional basis instead of the traditional winner-take-all.
That's sort of the way the Dems have done it and it is what led to Hillary and Obama duking it out through June four years ago.
Proportional awarding of delegates means that as long as a candidate doesn't get skunked in a big state, he or she will be able to stay in the game for a long time - so long as the money keeps coming in.
What it also means is that someone like Gingrich will probably not be able to claim victory even if he outright wins Iowa, South Carolina and Florida because he is unlikely to win any of those with 100 percent of the votes.
On the other hand, Obama didn't have to win any state with 100 percent of the votes to have built up an insurmountable lead over Mrs. Clinton in the waning days of the Democratic primary season four years ago.
He won by enough so that Clinton had to win an overwhelming victory in some of the later states to be able to catch up.
The California and New Jersey primaries, because they occur in June, will be winner-take-all and June 5 might be the day that decides this nominating fight.
That's a couple of days more than six months from now.
As I have told you, I have packed up my crystal ball and put it in the hall closet so I have no idea if this will go all the way to next June, but I am pretty sure that Newt claiming to be the nominee a month before the first Hawkeye trudges into the first high school gym is, at best, premature and at worst, an example of dangerous Newtonian hubris.
On the Secret Decoder Ring today: A link to the ABC News interview in which Newt claims he will be the nominee; one to that Rasmussen poll, and one to the Wikipedia list of primary dates. Also an amusing Mullfoto and a Catchy Caption of the Day calling into question the sufficiency of a border fence with Mexico.
I liked his weaseling on the Pelosi love seat incident.
He claimed the message was lost (and the message was?) and that he wants to eliminate the EPA and replace it with an Environmental Solutions Agency.
Chilly day would be a good day to go hunting.
No, he isn’t. He is EXACTLY the same. He is a sociopath and a narcissist who will govern by fiat. You mark my words. An executive pen in his hand wil be equal to, or worse than, anything you think has been bad up until now.
You are a dreamer. That's OK, you're allowed. But we've had conservatives ride in before to rescue the Constitution...Goldwater, Buchanon, Palin...how did that work out for us?
New building better lightning and more staff.
bttt
At least he is eligible, unlike Obama and Romney.
“If a black or a woman ran against Obama, Obama would lose.”
Yep, I agree. I’ve been for Bachman from the get go. But, she can’t seem to gain much traction. I suppose I would “settle” for Newt so long as we (GOP) control both houses so to keep him on the reservation...
I like Newt. I like the answers he has been giving in the debates. I frankly don’t give a rat’s behind about his past....It doesn’t matter as he is now a mature statesman with serious thoughtful answers. Compared to Obama, there is no question he has my vote.
I dispise Romney and will never vote for him, but how exactly is he not elligible?
You forgot his various affairs and hin being the cause of the hurricanes and earthquakes. Yes, in spite of all those things, if he should be the nominee of the party he will get my vote over Obama or any 3rd party fruitcake.
——a right-wing conservative in the mold of a Franco, Fujimori or Pinochet would come riding to our rescue-——
They would be rejected because by the true conservatives they aren’t Jesus Christ
You forgot his various affairs and him being the cause of the hurricanes and earthquakes. Yes, in spite of all those things, if he should be the nominee of the party he will get my vote over Obama or any 3rd party fruitcake.
Ethics sanctions
Eighty-four ethics charges were filed against Speaker Gingrich during his term, including claiming tax-exempt status for a college course run for political purposes.
Following an investigation by the House Ethics Committee Gingrich was sanctioned US$300,000. Gingrich acknowledged in January 1997 that “In my name and over my signature, inaccurate, incomplete and unreliable statements were given to the committee”. The House Ethics Committee concluded that inaccurate information supplied to investigators represented “intentional or ... reckless” disregard of House rules.
Special Counsel James M. Cole concluded that Gingrich violated federal tax law and had lied to the ethics panel in an effort to force the committee to dismiss the complaint against him.
The full committee panel did not agree whether tax law had been violated and left that issue up to the IRS. In 1999, the IRS cleared the organizations connected with the “Renewing American Civilization” courses under investigation for possible tax violations.
Supporting Newt is strengthening the establishment hold on GOP.
Although Newt is highly flawed, I would probably vote for him in the general.
The reason for this is I believe that despite his flaws, he could and likely would do serious damage to the leftist agenda. (Ironically, the challenge would be to keep him from advancing it, some of the time.)
Just as George Soros learned at Hitler’s knee, Gingrich spent his early political life with Dr. One-World Kissinger.
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