Posted on 11/29/2011 2:41:45 PM PST by blam
No Longer Indicating Recession
By Addison Wiggin
11/29/11 Baltimore, Maryland – Alas, a little-known recession indicator has stopped flashing red — at least for now. The Philadelphia Fed’s State Coincident Index — crunching four employment indicators from all 50 states — clocked in at 76 in October.
Readings below 50 have predicted every recession of the last 30 years, with only one false alarm — last year, in the midst of QE2.
Or is that two now? The index sat below 50 from May through August, but recovered in September to 64 — and added 12 more points last month.
Hmmmn…
Well, the Fed continues to roll over all the Treasuries it bought during QE2, which some pundits label “QE 2.5.”
The monetary mandarins may be succeeding in postponing the inevitable. But we remain on guard for whenever they run out of paper clips and rubber bands to hold the whole thing together.
I find that hard to believe.
When we moved to this Washington State community in 1999, the local newspaper adds for jobs stretched for 7 full pages.
Today, for the first time, there were no adds at all. The local state-run employment office listed 8 jobs, 3 of which were logging related, two were insurance company sales jobs, and the rest were part-time seasonal jobs.
I know my local community must have an unemployement rate over 25%. Every job I apply for has literally hundreds of applications. Even my father’s barber said that men are buzz-cutting their own hair rather that pay for a haircut!
Can't go on pumping in money forever.
If 9% and actually far more unemployment and underemployment, as well as the ongoing mortgage crisis doesn’t qualify this nation to be in a recession, then the word has no meaning.
I realize the weight of the qualification rests on quarters of growth or some such, but seriously folks, if this isn’t a recession, then don’t come pining to me when you think there is one.
I won’t be listening.
I won’t believe it until someone proves to me the government hasn’t cooked the numbers. Also, I’d like to know which states (red or blue) improved.
Okay here:
The Ultimate Tale Of The Economy's Collapse, Recovery, Slowdown And Then Recovery
For the most part, US economic indicators continue to look solid despite all the worries.
The Philly Fed State Coincident Index tracks employment, unemployment, manufacturing hours and wages. It is visualized with a map, where red shows declines and green shows gains.
In March 2009 the map was entirely red,meaning that most indicators were still ugly.
If I understood you accurately, we agree on this.
The term doesn’t touch on the plight of the average man, and I think that renders it useless to banter around as the media and politicians do.
If it doesn’t apply to us, don’t use it when you talk to us. We could care less.
Recession over, depression on the way.
Unemployment is no where close to 10%. Figures don't lie, but liars figure. POLs and Commies LIE.
Is there anything the government says that I should believe anymore?
Today, the whitey house says that obastard’s trips are not political. Right.
Can’t be that bad, the Coincident Rating map for your state says things are really improving rapidly there.
Tongue planted in cheek.
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