Gingrich 32%, Romney 23% [Cain 14%, Poll Position 11/27]

Poll Position ^ | 11/28/2011 | Eason Jordan

[Future Useless Eater]

Poll Position SHOULD have swapped pictures, and put in Ron Paul's picture in 4th place, since Perry's numbers round UP to 5% and Paul's numbers round to 6%

Here are the latest two Poll Position national polls...

Poll		Date		Sample		Gingr. 	Romn. 	Cain 	Perry 	Paul 	Bachm. 	Santo. 	Hunts. 
Poll Position	11/22 - 11/22	540 LRV		30.3	21.4	11.3	5.9	4.5	6.2	???	2.4
Poll Position	11/27 - 11/27	499 LRV		32.1	23.2	13.6	4.9	5.6	4.1	???	2.7

LRV in these cases means registered Likely Republican Voters

I also heard by freepmail that Cain has NOT said he is reassessing his campaign...

From Lolly Winne, a well-known Cain volunteer:

“I was on a conference call at 11:15am this morning with Herman Cain himself, where he explained to us that, once again, the accusations against him are COMPLETELY FALSE. He ALSO explained that he is NOT considering dropping out of the campaign, despite what the media is reporting. The campaign is moving forward as planned. Additionally, he shared that Ginger White WAS a friend of his (and his wife’s) and she was a struggling unemployed single mom who received several eviction notices due to being unable to pay her rent. So being the good man that he is, Mr. Cain helped her out financially as a FRIEND, as he has done for other friends in the past.”

When asked what the reassessment was about - Winne replied, “I was on the call, I did not hear the words “REASSESS THE CAMPAIGN”, I heard, ‘we need to assess the situation (the damage) over the next couple of days and continue to MOVE FORWARD.’ He said NOTHING about considering to drop out. He didn’t even INSINUATE it.”

https://www.facebook.com/lollywinne

---

Much like what the government does with unemployment statistics, the following chart represents a 4-poll "rolling average" for the latest 20+ polls listed at RealClearPolitics.com (plus other recent national polls).

I also weighted the polls by their size. For example, a poll with a survey size of 1000 was weighted proportionately heavier than an 324 survey size.

Weighted 4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest 20+ Polls
listed at RCP   [as of Nov 29th]
plus
YouGov 11/22, 11/15, 11/8, 11/1, 10/25, 10/18 and 10/11 polls, and
Poll Position 11/27 11/22 11/8, and 11/1 polls inserted chronologically
I also broke the 11/9 - 11/14 Pew poll into two, (3-day) polls

(Example methodology for this chart will be on my profile page)

[pollywog]

that is one scary chart!

[Future Useless Eater]

We should all start recognizing that this is likely to be the dirtiest election in our lifetimes!

Obama and his Chicago slime-machine has a history of destroying his opponents with dirt.

We should remember that no human is perfect, that ALL our candidates are better people that the scum on the left.

And Obama in particular has HIDDEN most of his past from scrutiny.
see what Obama's classmate at Occidental said he was like at that time:

Marlzberg: 
OK, So there's Barry Obama, and... 
tell me why you believe that 
he was a Marxist back then? 

Drew:
OK, well my most vivid memory is how INSISTENT he was  
in arguing a Marxist / Leninist point of view. 
I was arguing a more moderate Marxist view that just said
that even though a lot of Marxist ideas were correct, 
it was implausible that we would ever see a revolution 
led by the working class to overthrow the elite. 
And Obama did NOT buy that AT ALL. 
He made a very principled, dedicated, impassioned argument 
that in fact, a REAL revolution was coming.  
And in a sense, we should all get on board and prepare ourselves 
physically and emotionally for that revolution. 

...

Marlzberg: 
yea, and so, OK, he wasn't ambitious at the time. 
But the revolution, that he saw coming, this fit in with some other remarks you
made, about the United States, where you say that you believe that Obama perceived
America as the ENEMY. In what sense? 

Drew:
He DEFINITELY saw America as the enemy. 
He believed that the ruling elite had rigged our economic system
so that it CAUSED people to be poor. 
And it was immoral, and it was wrong, and the only 
way you could tip things back so we all 
could enjoy a more prosperous lifestyle, 
was to redistribute the wealth. 

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Newt is clearly stomping Romney into the proverbial dirt.

Perry won't be able to hold on much longer, Cain never did have a real campaign, only an all expense paid Book Tour and self promotion tour. Which he plans on using after the election is over like Palin did.

[montag813]

Wow...Perry gained nothing back from his past two decent debate performances. Social conservatives clearly have shifted to Gingrich, although they still can’t let go of Mr. Cain.

[InterceptPoint]

Right now I’m thinking that Romney is wishing for the good old days when Cain was his major competitor. Now, with Cain at 14% and likely to drop out (my opinion and it’s just an opinion) those votes are very, very likely to go mostly to Gingrich and very few if any to Romney. That is going to expand the Gingrich lead. That 9 point lead could easily go as high as 20.

Not good news for Romney. I’m managing somehow to hold back the tears. ;)

[SVTCobra03]

To 0bama and the OWS freeloaders: Don’t redistribute my wealth; redistribute my work ethic.

[montag813]

Drew: He DEFINITELY saw America as the enemy. He believed that the ruling elite had rigged our economic system so that it CAUSED people to be poor. And it was immoral, and it was wrong, and the only way you could tip things back so we all could enjoy a more prosperous lifestyle, was to redistribute the wealth

Sounds 100% identical to the idiots in OWS!

[fantom]

What a line up. You have Romney who is despised by the base and the religious bigots. Then there is Newt . LIke the other white haired geezer the ran before him , the Nation will recoil at the site of another GOP gasbag on the same stage as the Golden Boy. Turn out the lights , the part's over.

[Windflier]

Too bad that Newt is going to be cut to ribbons by the left-wing attack machine. Even worse - he gave them the ammo to shoot him down.

This is disastrous...

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

You are wrong about that. Newt is no gas bag. He has a keen ability to speak with intelligent appeal/ Which is a complete opposite of McCain. McCain admitted that he knew very little about foreign affairs or economics.

Newt is a genius in most all of these areas and if he applies himself, we could not hope for a better man as President. I believe he is quite serious about doing what we want him to.

[BarnacleCenturion]

Gingrich is peaking too soon and will fall hard.

He benefited from 3 consecutive foreign policy debates but when the topic shifts back to the economy Cain will regain the lost ground (Newt has no Plan).

Perry has tons of money yet to be spent and will also regain some lost ground (has Newt raised any cash?).

I’ll go out on a limb and predict that Bachmann takes Iowa, after social conservatives discover that Newt is not one of them.

ABN (Anybody but Newt)

[GeronL]

I don’t think I can vote for Newt or Mitt

[Prole]

What a sad state of affairs. Gingrich/Romney? Yuck. Establishment RINO elitists will do nothing to fix our dangerous border, and may not even do much to salvage our slashed DOD budget.

Cain and Bachmann were our only hope, but it seems as though they are fading away fast.

[Lib-Lickers 2]

after all the dust settles and feelings bandaged I think we all might start enjoying watching Gingrich dismantle Obama and what the left has done in the last 3 years.. no reporter, interviewer or debater is going to come out looking good after they confront him with ANY subject let alone what Obama has done to this country...

I’m picturing the blue collar independent guy sitting in his lazyboy drinking a beer listening to Newt explain how Obama is a socialist and is systematically taking the country apart from what made us great.. Gingrich can educate and persuade in just a few minutes that a vote for Obama is a vote to destroy the country we grew up in and and then explain how he plans to bring the country back to prosperity and greatness.. America is waiting for that message and he like no other in the race can deliver it

it will be like Morning In America again

then it’s over for Obama

Chris Matthews is already saying what they know is the truth.. Obama does not want to go up against Newt Gingrich because he will take Obama apart unlike Romney who will play nicey nice

[littleharbour]

I agree. A very poor choice. What amazes me is Perry’s ineptitude. On paper he should be crusing. But his campaign started poorly and his debate stumbles seem to have crystallized the view that he’s not ready for prime time. Bush, Jr. had the charm to get away with less than stellar debating skills, but Perry just can’t pull it off.

[Parley Baer]

Another poll showing Mitt stuck in the low 20% range. He does not seem to move up or down from that position. Karl Rove and Hugh Hewitt are deeply saddened. It appears to me that Herman Cain is still in the race. Newt is holding onto the lead he garnered a few weeks ago. If Newt turns out to be the nominee I will vote for him.

[BarnacleCenturion]

“Newt is no gas bag. He has a keen ability to speak with intelligent appeal”

ROFL, you can’t be serious. Newt was hated by most of the country when he was speaker, handed Clinton a second term and was ousted by his own peers.

He is probably the only republican that Obama can defeat. Newt will make it a tabloid election and all we’ll hear about is adultery, cheating and divorce. The man will be disqualified on moral grounds. Nobody with his track record has ever become president. People like him are very easy to defeat.

[RainMan]

RCP is not showing the 11/27 poll in thier averages. In fact, looking at thier datasets, it does not look like RCP uses thier data at all ... why is that?

[Future Useless Eater]

I don’t know. But Real Clear Politics (of Chicago) has pulled some tricks several times that indicate they favor Romney.

As a result, I believe they try to use polls that will give a slightly left-leaning average, or an edge to Romney. They used Poll Position polls in 2008, so it makes no sense otherwise.