[nathanbedford]

My personal belief is that Herman Cain has not been telling the truth and has in fact indulged in affairs, sexual harassment and groping as alleged. I believed that when the charges first came out and I have so posted and predicted that additional charges would emerge. I depart from most conservatives in regarding sexcapades as relatively unimportant and not particularly revealing of a candidate's character as it relates to his capacity to serve in office. That is not to say that these charges do not have a profound effect on electability.

As a practical matter I believe we are witnessing the end of the Herman Cain campaign and the question for Mr. Cain personally now becomes how to make a graceful exit. Apparently some remarks he made to the effect that he would stay in the race unless it damaged his family could be the early preparations for such an exit.

For us armchair pundits the question becomes who will get Cain's support? The obvious answer is Gingrich who is now ahead in the last four nationwide polls listed in Real Clear Politics. It does not seem likely that Herman Cain's support would go to Romney for ideological reasons. It is possible that either Santorum or Bachman could get a portion of the Cain people but it is unlikely in view of their inability to gain traction in general. So I think it is a safe bet to say that Gingrich will get a plurality if not the majority of Cain's supporters.

How does this affect the races on the ground? Romney is ahead in New Hampshire when he has two very difficult problems to contend with. First, he is on the wrong side of the expectations game and if the does not win decisively in New Hampshire he loses. So even a win for Romney by a plurality or a slim majority is a loss.

Second, Gingrich has momentum and he has increased that momentum through the endorsement of the New Hampshire Guardian newspaper which is a very significant endorsement because of the peculiarities of that newspaper in Hampshire. It is a statewide organ and it will repeat its endorsement on the front page from now until the primary vote, often attacking Romney. Eight Republican state legislators have just come out and endorsed Gingrich which further adds to his momentum.

After New Hampshire Romney faces a daunting challenge in South Carolina where he is behind Gingrich. I suppose his battle plan had been to take momentum which he expected to generate in New Hampshire into South Carolina. The problem for Romney is that you must maintain the aura of inevitability which is closely connected to an image of electability in order to prevail. He is not a favored choice of the conservative wing of the Republican Party who will consent to him as the nominee only reluctantly. They will do so only if they believe it is a question of electability and they will do so only if they think they have no other viable alternative. If Romney betrays vulnerability, he is finished. If he betrays questionable electability, he is finished.

The way it is now clear for Gingrich to perform at least credibly in New Hampshire and prevail in South Carolina. I believe by the time he has to go to Florida he will have enough money to engage in the air war necessary in that big state. He is apparently raising a lot of money now. If Newt can continue to put together a ground game in the important primary states he has a clear path to the nomination.

[AmericanInTokyo]

Tell me. What objectively governs your "personal belief" (this man's innocence vs. guilt) since you seem to either infer or otherwise outright pronounce the latter? Were you present? What I would like to ask is this: Really, what evidence do you have on this allegation? Do you have a verifiable second or third witness? What proof do you have of this activity or adultery? You do know there is plenty of proof of adultery on the part of the Speaker, verifiable, of course it was all over Capitol Hill regarding Callista Bisek, so we should not be too quick to throw a stone (adultery that even ended in a follow-on marriage). The situations in the case of Cain on the other hand at this point are mere allegations from previously-proven libelous or dishonest people. Previous "smears" on Cain have vanished like farts in an Arctic windstorm after being debunked and/or the accusers knew they were on thin ice to pursue it any further with Gloria Allred pro counsel or on their own. This one imho will also fall by the wayside. Clearly a month ago people were droning on that it was the end of his campaign but he survived three attacks to still come ahead in state pollings and receive steady donations. You cannot count him out on surving this fourth groundless accusation egged on by the national Mass Liberal Media. I think it is a waste of time theorizing that such and such a candidate should make an exit, and trying to do so in an objective manner, particularly when one may well have a conflict of interest in that one openly supports one of his competitors and thereby would benefit by such a dropping out as opposed to the meting out of justice.

[DB]

If its true, and it sounds like it probably is, she’ll be able to back up her claims with notes, messages, gifts, dates, etc. 13 years is a long time... So I also think Cain is done. Personally I think if someone can’t keep their vows to their spouse I have little expectation they will keep them with the constitution/electorate.

Newt has some serious baggage made far worse by his fairly recent going Gore book.

[fightinJAG]

That is not to say that these charges do not have a profound effect on electability.

Yes, they do, for someone such as Herman Cain.

Yet, ironically, it looks as though the party is moving toward nominating someone who is a proven adulterer, multiple times, WHILE in public office and WHILE condemning the POTUS for his sexual misconduct. And if so nominated and elected, the First Lady will have gained her position by way of starting an affair with a married congressman while she worked as a congressional aide.

[wardaddy]

quit being reasonable Bedford

you must cling to the fantasy

[gardencatz]

Yeah cuz it makes sense to transfer one’s support from a candidate where there are innuendos but no solid proof to a candidate where there IS proof of affairs (well, okay, maybe he was just window shopping for the next wife before the fire sale). Sorry, but that’s NOT going to happen. It makes no sense. Sheesh, there’s no logic around here anymore. Oh, and Gingrich is a pandering Washington insider who is probably the best chameleon in politics, playing conservative, global warming enthusiast, conservative, health care mandate supporter, conservative, womanizer, conservative...

Cindie

[Scutter]

Great analysis. I completely agree.

[Thunder90]

The media is going to tear Gingrich a new one in the next few weeks. They already started to do so until Gingrich shot himself in the foot with the amnesty bit. Thus, they turned their attention back to Cain. But, the Media will return to attack Gingrich (And Perry) if they make a comeback.

[varina davis]

I agree with most of what you say, but fail to understand why a true conservative (such as a Goldwater conservative) would not consider Rick Perry’s credentials in this race.

I’m also surprised that conservative Freepers are allowing the MSM to tell them the race is between Newt and Romney (Cain is no longer viable of course, nor is Paul).

It would be almost amusing if not such a serious time in history for an election.

[Jeff Chandler]

Well put.

[normy]

While I agree we are seeing the end of the Cain campaign I find it interesting you have left Rick Perry out of your equation. He has more money than any of them and a better economic record as well as a social record on par with Bachman and Santorum. He also is the only candidate (minus Ron Paul) with military experience.

I think these hard factors will ultimately make a huge difference in this primary race.