Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: TBBT; 11th Commandment; 2ndDivisionVet; Absolutely Nobama; altura; Amntn; Antoninus; ...
There is something completely loony about two polls taken almost the same dates and having such drastically different results!!
I believe that CNN is far off, or lying, but I will give them the benefit of the doubt (they must have NOT had a random 'national' sample) and I will just use their data as-is.

Poll Date Sample Romney Cain Gingrich
CNN/Opinion Research 11/11 - 11/13 480 A 24 14 22
PPP (D) 11/10 - 11/13 576 RV 18 25 28



With CNN, PPP, and Battleground polls included

Much like what the government does with unemployment statistics, the following chart represents a 4-poll "rolling average" for the latest 20+ polls listed at RealClearPolitics.com (plus recent weekly national polls from YouGov).

I also weighted the polls by their size. For example, a poll with a survey size of 1000 was weighted proportionately heavier than an 324 survey size.


Weighted 4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest 20+ Polls listed at RCP [as of Nov 14th p.m.]
plus "YouGov" 11/8, 11/1, 10/25, 10/18 and 10/11 polls,
and Poll Position 11/8, and 11/1 polls inserted chronologically



(Example methodology for this chart is on my profile page)

This means, that the 4-Poll Weighted Average for the latest 4 polls ( CNN +PPP + Mclatchy +CBS) calculates the first, 2nd, and 3rd place front-runners as follows:
(1st)  21.1% = Gingrich
(2nd) 20.4% = Cain
(3rd)  19.8% = Romney
.

103 posted on 11/14/2011 5:46:02 PM PST by Future Useless Eater (Chicago politics = corrupted capitalism = takeover by COMMUNity-ISM)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]


To: Future Useless Eater

Today is bach Cain promote Romney I mean Gingrich day...


111 posted on 11/14/2011 6:08:44 PM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 103 | View Replies ]

To: Future Useless Eater; TBBT; 11th Commandment; 2ndDivisionVet; Absolutely Nobama; altura; Amntn; ...
There is something completely loony about two polls taken almost the same dates and having such drastically different results!!

But its clear the trend is Gingrich is up. Cain's lack of understanding the issues and the harassment allegations are bringing him down.

I'm encouraged because it looks like Perry is bouncing back from his "oops" and is more relaxed.

112 posted on 11/14/2011 6:09:02 PM PST by wmfights (PERRY 2012)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 103 | View Replies ]

To: Future Useless Eater

Hm... That’s an interesting data set for Cain. The scandal breaks, and he drops, then there is a leveling out and an upward spike which immediately drops again with no rhyme or reason behind it. Something’s not right with that.

Maybe another week of polling without the Lame Stream Media hyping the non-scandal scandal and we’ll get a better picture.

Cheers


116 posted on 11/14/2011 6:13:55 PM PST by DoctorBulldog (I'm a Cainiac! Get over it. -- If the dress aint got no stain, you MUST acquit Cain!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 103 | View Replies ]

To: Future Useless Eater

PPP polls have been shown to be useless. If you doubt the CNN poll as well, then this work is meaningless.


216 posted on 11/14/2011 11:01:04 PM PST by Ingtar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 103 | View Replies ]

To: Future Useless Eater

Go Newt, go!


218 posted on 11/14/2011 11:34:24 PM PST by NaturalBornConservative (The Author)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 103 | View Replies ]

To: Future Useless Eater

Cain & Gingrich having the lead seems to make from a poll perspective; they each seem to be be riding the current news cycle wave.

Romney on the other hand... I still don’t see (anecdotal I know) the outpouring of support for him that polls would suggest.


227 posted on 11/15/2011 10:06:01 AM PST by Made In The USA (This post may be recorded for quality purposes.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 103 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson