I don’t agree that the nominee will be chosen before the Illinois primary, since there are so many candidates who live in different states. Here is a list of some of the first primaries and caucuses:
Tuesday, 3 January 2012, Iowa Caucus; Tuesday, 10 January 2012, New Hampshire Primary; Saturday 21 January 2012, Nevada Non-binding Precinct Viability Caucuses (tentative date); Tuesday, 24 January 2012, Louisiana District Caucuses (tentative date) & West Virginia County Republican Conventions (tentative date); Saturday, 28 January 2012, South Carolina Party Primary (tentative date); Tuesday, 31 January 2012, Florida Primary; Saturday, 4 February - Saturday 11 February 2012, Maine Municipal Caucuses / non-binding straw poll; Saturday, 4 February 2012, Nevada Precinct Caucuses (tentative date)
Since Iowa borders Minnesota, Rep. Bachammn will win IA. Since New Hamphire borders Mass., Gov. Romney will win NH. Since Utah borders Nevada, Gov. Huntsman will win NV. Since Gov. Roemer is from Louisiana, he’ll win that state. Since Penn. borders West Virginia, Sen. Santorum will win WV. Since Georgia borders Florida and Alabama, Rep. Gingrich and/or Mr. Cain will win FL & AL. When IL votes, the majority of the current candidates will have strong campaigns.
Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson lost their home states in 2008. Ron Paul lost Texas, and I believe both Rick Perry and Ron Paul will not win Texas in 2012. Romney barely got a majority of Massachuttes Republicans to support him for President in 2008, he won 51% of MA primary voters. In 2004, Kuncinich lost Ohio, Wesley Clark lost Arkansas, Dick Gephart lost Missouri, and so on. In 2000, Alan Keyes lost Maryland, Orrin Hatch lost Utah, and Steve Forbes & Bill Bradley lost their home state of New Jersey.
Illinois got a chance to weigh in the nominee in 2008 because our primary was held on Super Tuesday, early in February. But when Illinois has voted in late March, the nominee is almost always choosen before our state votes. In 2000, I believe McCain had "suspended" his campaign before Illinois voted... Keyes was still running but Bush was way ahead in delegates and the presumed nominee. In 1996, I believe everyone had dropped out besides Dole and Buchanan by the time Illinois voted. In 1992, the choices in the Democrat primary were down to Clinton, Tsongus, and Brown by the time Illinois voted, and Tsongus dropped out shortly afterwards. In 1988, I think Bush, Dole, and Robertson were still running by the time Illinois voted, but Bush was already the front runner by a wide margin of delegates and presumed to be the nominee. And so on and so forth.
Can't see a scenario where a multitude of candidates win delegates in the early primary states. In 2008, people thought we could end up with a deadlocked convention where Huckabee won Iowa, McCain won New Hampshire, Romney won Michigan, Ron Paul won Nevada, Fred Thompson won South Carolina, and Giuliani won Florida. Instead, only McCain, Huckabee, and Romney won any states.
I think it probably will be over on Super Tuesday. It usually is. Last time I thought it could go to the convention, didn’t happen.
Candidates just don’t win states cause they are from neighboring states. Last time McCain won every state that borders Massachusetts, not Romney.
I know you support him but Roemer’s campaign barley exists. It barley exists by his own choice not to raise money. He hasn’t been on a ballot in Louisiana since 1995. He’s not going to win Louisiana. He’s not gonna be a factor in Louisiana or in any other state, he’ll be lucky to get on the ballots. I think he’s off his rocker defending the occupy wall street movement. He’s seems to just be running as a protest against special interest money in politics.
Santorum’s campaign has gone nowhere, he can’t win West Virginia. A poll a couple months ago had him polling 12% in his own state of Pennsylvania.
Huntsman won’t even win Utah, Romney will.
The latest poll in Texas has Cain ahead of Perry in that state.
As for this straw poll? Well, I need the $5 so I won’t be voting in it. I’d probably go ahead and vote in it if my financial situation was better. Ultimately the results probably won’t matter that much.