NBC News/Marist Poll 2012 South Carolina (Cain 30%, Romney 26%, Perry 9%, Gingrich 6%)

race42012.com ^ | 10.19.2011 | Staff

[BarnacleCenturion]

NBC News/Marist Poll 2012 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

• Herman Cain 30%
• Mitt Romney 26%
• Rick Perry 9%
• Newt Gingrich 6%
• Michele Bachmann 5%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Undecided 15%

Potential Republican primary electorate (POTREP=1): n=992, MOE +/-3.1%; Likely Voters: n=639, MOE +/-3.9%

[dools0007world]

Was this poll before or after last night’s faux debate?

[sodpoodle]

Before or after yesterday’s debate?

[rarestia]

Says it was posted on the reference site at 9:34 AM. I’d imagine this is post-debate.

[MitchellC]

The poll was conducted 10/11-10/13.

[exist]

The Left and the GOP Establishment is in overdrive trying to Palin-ize Cain.

[MitchellC]

FWIW, there are actually two candidate-preference questions on the poll, and Real Clear Politics is using the other one, which includes leaners:

Cain 31, Romney 28, Perry 10, Gingrich 7, Paul 5, Bachmann 5, Santorum 2, Huntsman 1

[wolfman23601]

I find it hard to believe Romney is pulling 28% in SC.

[SuziQ]

The Left and the GOP Establishment is in overdrive trying to Palin-ize Cain.

Yep, they are, but we are on to them, so we can inform others, who may not be as aware, of that attempt.

[MitchellC]

I find it hard to believe Romney is pulling 28% in SC.

I find it a little sketchy myself. There's another poll out today, from Insider Advantage conducted on 10/16, that has Cain way ahead:

Cain - 32
Romney - 16
Perry - 12

[tflabo]

This poll seems more believable after that Myth busters debate last night.

[Dante3]

While I am glad to see Cain surging in the polls - he is my no. 1 choice, the polls at this time are not all that significant. Still, it is good news.

I have noted that scores of articles and discussions keep focusing on Romney and Perry and ignore Cain. This in spite of Perry's poor showing yesterday - the worst among the group. Perry's juvenile bickering and failure to appear presidential will turn off voters

[federal__reserve]

Romney is pulling 23-28% everywhere but can’t find a surge anywhere. He is getting the republican elite/insider votes.

[kingattax]

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[stephenjohnbanker]

B U M P

[justsaynomore]

Also:

Ohio poll: Cain takes lead in GOP presidential race (Cain 34 Romney 19)
http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/ohiopolitics/entries/2011/10/18/ohio_poll_cain_takes_lead_in_g.html

Azimuth Poll - Texas Primary (Cain 33%, Perry 18%, Romney 7%)
http://www.fontcraft.com/azimuth/?p=113

[af_vet_rr]

I find it hard to believe Romney is pulling 28% in SC.

Romney is getting the moderate and Mormon vote everywhere he goes, that's why he's not really been able to increase his numbers. Some are claiming that Cain is picking up ex-Perry/ex-Bachmann supporters which explains his rise and their falling while leaving Romney untouched. The people who are consistently supporting Romney are not going to leave Romney, so it's going to be up to the Tea Party/Conservatives to overcome those numbers.

[wolfman23601]

I agree, but I have trouble believing there are enough Mormon an
d moderates in SC to get to 28%

[SeaHawkFan]

Once we get closer to the primaries, I think some of the Perry/Gingrich/Bachmann will go to Cain if it looks like it will be close between Cain and Romney just to make sure Romney doesn’t win unless the delegates are awarded on a proportional basis.

No matter how you slice it, Romney is never going to get above 28%.

[af_vet_rr]

I agree, but I have trouble believing there are enough Mormon and moderates in SC to get to 28%

In the 2008 primary, McCain won SC with 33% of the vote, with Huckabee getting %30 and Romney in fourth at 15%. Take the 15% Romney got in 2008, add in a slice of McCain's 33%, and it's easy to get to 28%.