Once we get closer to the primaries, I think some of the Perry/Gingrich/Bachmann will go to Cain if it looks like it will be close between Cain and Romney just to make sure Romney doesn’t win unless the delegates are awarded on a proportional basis.
No matter how you slice it, Romney is never going to get above 28%.
A fair assessment. Romney's situation isn't much different from McCain's in 2008. McCain, for example, never captured a majority in any Republican primary until we got to Arizona -- his home state, by 56/44 over Huckabee, the only remaining contender after McCain had already clinched the nomination.
However, McCain was working with a stacked deck. Most of the early primaries were winner-take-all. And, even though McCain never got a majority of the voters, he won all the delegates.
This year, though, it's different: most of the early states have changed to proportional distribution of the delegates. Consequently, even if Romney gets the highest percentage of the vote, he'll get only an equivalent percentage of the delegates.
This situation could well result in the primaries failing to produce a winner -- come convention time, nobody would have a majority of the delegates. And the convention would be forced to select a nominee.
Such a nominee would not necessarily have to be from the current list of candidates.
Right now, that looks like an optimum outcome.