Posted on 10/11/2011 12:03:53 PM PDT by justsaynomore
Raleigh, N.C. – Herman Cain has surged into the lead in Iowa, and Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann crashed, with three months still to go in the race for the first nominating contest. Cain has 30% to Mitt Romney’s 22%, Ron Paul’s 10%, Perry’s 9%, Newt Gingrich’s and Bachmann’s 8%, Rick Santorum’s 5%, and Jon Huntsman’s and Gary Johnson’s 1%. When PPP last polled the state in August, just after Bachmann’s straw poll win and Perry’s entrance into the race, Perry led with 22% to Romney’s 19%, Bachmann’s 18%, Paul’s 16%, Cain’s 7%, and Gingrich’s and Santorum’s 5%, so Perry has dropped 13 points, Bachmann ten, and Paul six, while Cain is up a whopping 23 points, and Romney and Gingrich each three over the course of a month and a half.
Cain’s support could only grow if other candidates are not viable at certain caucus sites. He and Gingrich, who were first and second in PPP polls in North Carolina, West Virginia, and Nebraska last week, get the most second-choice support. Gingrich is the fallback of 17%, followed by Cain’s 16%, Perry’s 12%, Romney’s and Bachmann’s 11%, and Paul’s 9%. Cain gets the plurality of Bachmann’s, Santorum’s, and surprisingly, Romney’s backers, while Gingrich gets Cain’s and Paul’s, and Romney pulls Gingrich’s and Huntsman’s. Perry’s support is spread around.
Cain leads Romney 2:1 (38-19) among the 42% who say they are firmly committed to their first choice, while the two are tied at 27% among the 58% who may change their mind. Johnson, with his one supporter, has the most committed yet small base. His libertarian compatriate Paul is next; 53% of his voters are with him, do or die, then 52% of Perry’s, half of Cain’s, 43% of Gingrich’s, and then only 34% of Romney’s and a quarter of Bachmann’s. Romney has had consistent but soft support.
“Herman Cain not only has the lead in Iowa, he also has far more committed supporters than Mitt Romney,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That doesn’t mean his support will be lasting though- just ask Michele Bachmann.”
PPP surveyed 311 probable Iowa caucusgoers from October 7th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Michele Bachmann? Favorable........................................................ 44% Unfavorable .................................................... 38% Not sure .......................................................... 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Herman Cain? Favorable........................................................ 63% Unfavorable .................................................... 17% Not sure .......................................................... 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich? Favorable........................................................ 56% Unfavorable .................................................... 32% Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ron Paul? Favorable........................................................ 37% Unfavorable .................................................... 46% Not sure .......................................................... 17%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Perry? Favorable........................................................ 38% Unfavorable .................................................... 41% Not sure .......................................................... 21%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney? Favorable........................................................ 51% Unfavorable .................................................... 36% Not sure .......................................................... 13%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Huckabee? Favorable........................................................ 71% Unfavorable .................................................... 17% Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jon Huntsman? Favorable........................................................ 18% Unfavorable .................................................... 28% Not sure .......................................................... 54%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Johnson? Favorable........................................................ 7% Unfavorable .................................................... 20% Not sure .......................................................... 74%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Fred Karger? Favorable........................................................ 2% Unfavorable .................................................... 13% Not sure .......................................................... 84%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Buddy Roemer? Favorable........................................................ 2% Unfavorable .................................................... 12% Not sure .......................................................... 86%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Santorum? Favorable........................................................ 46% Unfavorable .................................................... 17% Not sure .......................................................... 37%
Q13 If the Republican candidates for President were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for? Michele Bachmann ......................................... 8% Herman Cain................................................... 30% Newt Gingrich ................................................. 8% Jon Huntsman................................................. 1% Gary Johnson ................................................. 1% Ron Paul ......................................................... 10% Rick Perry ....................................................... 9% Mitt Romney.................................................... 22% Rick Santorum................................................ 5% Someone else/Not sure .................................. 5%
Q14 (Asked only of those who made a choce in Q13:) Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else? Strongly committed to that candidate.............. 42% Might end up supporting someone else .......... 58%
Q15 (Asked only of those who made a choice in Q13:) Who would be your second choice for President? Michele Bachmann ......................................... 11% Herman Cain................................................... 16% Newt Gingrich ................................................. 17% Jon Huntsman................................................. 3% Gary Johnson ................................................. 1% Ron Paul ......................................................... 9% Rick Perry ....................................................... 12% Mitt Romney.................................................... 11% Rick Santorum................................................ 5% Someone else/Not sure .................................. 15%
Q16 Do you think that Mitt Romney is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Too liberal ....................................................... 35% Too conservative............................................. 6% About right ...................................................... 48% Not sure .......................................................... 11%
Q17 Do you think that Rick Perry is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Too liberal ....................................................... 21% Too conservative............................................. 15% About right ...................................................... 47% Not sure .......................................................... 16%
Q18 Do you think that Herman Cain is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Too liberal ....................................................... 6% Too conservative............................................. 10% About right ...................................................... 69% Not sure .......................................................... 15%
Q19 If the Republican race for President came down to Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who would you vote for? Mitt Romney.................................................... 46% Rick Perry ....................................................... 37% Not sure .......................................................... 17%
Q20 If the Republican race for President came down to Mitt Romney and Hermain Cain, who would you vote for? Mitt Romney.................................................... 38% Herman Cain................................................... 48% Not sure .......................................................... 14%
Q21 If the Republican race for President came down to Herman Cain and Rick Perry, who would you vote for? Herman Cain................................................... 52% Rick Perry ....................................................... 29% Not sure .......................................................... 19%
Q22 Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party? Yes.................................................................. 29% No ................................................................... 52% Not sure .......................................................... 18%
Q23 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States? Yes.................................................................. 37% No ................................................................... 42% Not sure .......................................................... 22%
Q24 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? Very liberal ...................................................... 3% Somewhat liberal ............................................ 4% Moderate......................................................... 21% Somewhat conservative.................................. 36% Very conservative ........................................... 36%
Q25 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Woman ........................................................... 48% Man................................................................. 52%
Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4. 18 to 29........................................................... 8% 30 to 45........................................................... 28% 46 to 65........................................................... 37% Older than 65.................................................. 27%
If you live in Iowa, it’s on IPTV World which are the .3 channels. 11.3 in central Iowa and 12.3 in eastern Iowa, etc.
“I like Mitt. I supported him in the last presidential election,” said Mr. Cain, who softened his often booming baritone voice almost to a whisper. “I don’t think he is going to be any stronger this time around against Barack Obama, even though Obama has a terrible record.”
Yessireee - that there proves Cain is in cahoots with Mittney.
Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh!!!
Perry cooked his goose...God Almighty what stupidity...don’t have a heart if we don’t fund illegals children to school and give them in state tuition, how about..get the frick out with your illegal parents..
Poor Herman, they say he has, “NO MONEY, HONEY”!
So, how did Cain, with no money, go from The sh*tter to the LEADER?...In a little over TWO WEEKS!
Because, just like Howard Cosell, he “Tells it like it is”!
Enough pantywaist politicians, CAIN 2012!
Rush said good things about Cain on his show today. He was nailing Romney.
I’ve noticed it’s suddenly gotten quite quiet in Texas/Perry freeper territory. Not too many articles lauding the pectorially splendid man of the hour or dewey-eyed photos of him staring off into the middle distance...
Can not find a listing for the debate in Phoenix AZ. Does anyone know if it will be broadcast here?
HEY IDIOTS!!!!!
This poll is BOGUS. Cain CANNOT be winning in Iowa. He has no money, no organization, no high-priced consultants.
IT’S IMPOSSIBLE!!!!!!
...at least that’s what the Perrybots keep telling us.
Go Herman!!!
“Rush needs to get endorse Cain! What the hell is he waiting for?”
I think Rush’s problem is that he simply hasn’t spent the time necessary to take a close look at Perry. Perry, as we have seen, initially comes across as the second coming of Reagan. But for those of us who live in Texas, we well know that’s not the case...and now the rest of the country knows the same.
Perry’s money is intimidating, but his money is not stopping his freefall, and Cain will not stay on a shoestring very long now that he’s the only one going toe-to-toe against Romney...and especially if he starts to take a lead over Romney. And I have no doubt that Perry’s money has just about dried up now.
It makes no sense for Cain to go after Perry—he needs to go after Romney.
Excellent.
This debate is very important for Cain and Ricky.
Wow! PPP, the Goebbel’s propaganda branch of the Rat party told us what to think.
Let’s all celebrate.
w/ Comcast I found it on channel 14, one I never knew I had... hmm
“This poll totally explains why RINO Chris Christie did what they told him to do, today.”
Let’s take this just a little further.
Perhaps Christie was made an offa he couldn’t refuse:
Endorse Romney, and you get to be vice-president in return.
Just sayin’....
What I would like to hear are recordings of his radio program in Atlanta.
Got a source? Anyone?
I’ll pass your request along. I don’t have the answer but maybe Kartographer does!
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