Posted on 10/11/2011 12:03:53 PM PDT by justsaynomore
Raleigh, N.C. – Herman Cain has surged into the lead in Iowa, and Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann crashed, with three months still to go in the race for the first nominating contest. Cain has 30% to Mitt Romney’s 22%, Ron Paul’s 10%, Perry’s 9%, Newt Gingrich’s and Bachmann’s 8%, Rick Santorum’s 5%, and Jon Huntsman’s and Gary Johnson’s 1%. When PPP last polled the state in August, just after Bachmann’s straw poll win and Perry’s entrance into the race, Perry led with 22% to Romney’s 19%, Bachmann’s 18%, Paul’s 16%, Cain’s 7%, and Gingrich’s and Santorum’s 5%, so Perry has dropped 13 points, Bachmann ten, and Paul six, while Cain is up a whopping 23 points, and Romney and Gingrich each three over the course of a month and a half.
Cain’s support could only grow if other candidates are not viable at certain caucus sites. He and Gingrich, who were first and second in PPP polls in North Carolina, West Virginia, and Nebraska last week, get the most second-choice support. Gingrich is the fallback of 17%, followed by Cain’s 16%, Perry’s 12%, Romney’s and Bachmann’s 11%, and Paul’s 9%. Cain gets the plurality of Bachmann’s, Santorum’s, and surprisingly, Romney’s backers, while Gingrich gets Cain’s and Paul’s, and Romney pulls Gingrich’s and Huntsman’s. Perry’s support is spread around.
Cain leads Romney 2:1 (38-19) among the 42% who say they are firmly committed to their first choice, while the two are tied at 27% among the 58% who may change their mind. Johnson, with his one supporter, has the most committed yet small base. His libertarian compatriate Paul is next; 53% of his voters are with him, do or die, then 52% of Perry’s, half of Cain’s, 43% of Gingrich’s, and then only 34% of Romney’s and a quarter of Bachmann’s. Romney has had consistent but soft support.
“Herman Cain not only has the lead in Iowa, he also has far more committed supporters than Mitt Romney,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That doesn’t mean his support will be lasting though- just ask Michele Bachmann.”
PPP surveyed 311 probable Iowa caucusgoers from October 7th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Michele Bachmann? Favorable........................................................ 44% Unfavorable .................................................... 38% Not sure .......................................................... 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Herman Cain? Favorable........................................................ 63% Unfavorable .................................................... 17% Not sure .......................................................... 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich? Favorable........................................................ 56% Unfavorable .................................................... 32% Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ron Paul? Favorable........................................................ 37% Unfavorable .................................................... 46% Not sure .......................................................... 17%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Perry? Favorable........................................................ 38% Unfavorable .................................................... 41% Not sure .......................................................... 21%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney? Favorable........................................................ 51% Unfavorable .................................................... 36% Not sure .......................................................... 13%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Huckabee? Favorable........................................................ 71% Unfavorable .................................................... 17% Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jon Huntsman? Favorable........................................................ 18% Unfavorable .................................................... 28% Not sure .......................................................... 54%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Johnson? Favorable........................................................ 7% Unfavorable .................................................... 20% Not sure .......................................................... 74%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Fred Karger? Favorable........................................................ 2% Unfavorable .................................................... 13% Not sure .......................................................... 84%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Buddy Roemer? Favorable........................................................ 2% Unfavorable .................................................... 12% Not sure .......................................................... 86%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Santorum? Favorable........................................................ 46% Unfavorable .................................................... 17% Not sure .......................................................... 37%
Q13 If the Republican candidates for President were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for? Michele Bachmann ......................................... 8% Herman Cain................................................... 30% Newt Gingrich ................................................. 8% Jon Huntsman................................................. 1% Gary Johnson ................................................. 1% Ron Paul ......................................................... 10% Rick Perry ....................................................... 9% Mitt Romney.................................................... 22% Rick Santorum................................................ 5% Someone else/Not sure .................................. 5%
Q14 (Asked only of those who made a choce in Q13:) Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else? Strongly committed to that candidate.............. 42% Might end up supporting someone else .......... 58%
Q15 (Asked only of those who made a choice in Q13:) Who would be your second choice for President? Michele Bachmann ......................................... 11% Herman Cain................................................... 16% Newt Gingrich ................................................. 17% Jon Huntsman................................................. 3% Gary Johnson ................................................. 1% Ron Paul ......................................................... 9% Rick Perry ....................................................... 12% Mitt Romney.................................................... 11% Rick Santorum................................................ 5% Someone else/Not sure .................................. 15%
Q16 Do you think that Mitt Romney is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Too liberal ....................................................... 35% Too conservative............................................. 6% About right ...................................................... 48% Not sure .......................................................... 11%
Q17 Do you think that Rick Perry is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Too liberal ....................................................... 21% Too conservative............................................. 15% About right ...................................................... 47% Not sure .......................................................... 16%
Q18 Do you think that Herman Cain is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Too liberal ....................................................... 6% Too conservative............................................. 10% About right ...................................................... 69% Not sure .......................................................... 15%
Q19 If the Republican race for President came down to Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who would you vote for? Mitt Romney.................................................... 46% Rick Perry ....................................................... 37% Not sure .......................................................... 17%
Q20 If the Republican race for President came down to Mitt Romney and Hermain Cain, who would you vote for? Mitt Romney.................................................... 38% Herman Cain................................................... 48% Not sure .......................................................... 14%
Q21 If the Republican race for President came down to Herman Cain and Rick Perry, who would you vote for? Herman Cain................................................... 52% Rick Perry ....................................................... 29% Not sure .......................................................... 19%
Q22 Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party? Yes.................................................................. 29% No ................................................................... 52% Not sure .......................................................... 18%
Q23 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States? Yes.................................................................. 37% No ................................................................... 42% Not sure .......................................................... 22%
Q24 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? Very liberal ...................................................... 3% Somewhat liberal ............................................ 4% Moderate......................................................... 21% Somewhat conservative.................................. 36% Very conservative ........................................... 36%
Q25 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Woman ........................................................... 48% Man................................................................. 52%
Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4. 18 to 29........................................................... 8% 30 to 45........................................................... 28% 46 to 65........................................................... 37% Older than 65.................................................. 27%
Herman Cain has surged into the lead in Iowa, and Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann crashed, with three months still to go in the race for the first nominating contest. Cain has 30% to Mitt Romney’s 22%, Ron Paul’s 10%, Perry’s 9%,
I’m so happy today. Money or no money Cain is scaring the living daylights out of the G.O.P. establishment.
This poll totally explains why RINO Chris Christie did what they told him to do, today.
Keep raisin’ Cain!
All of Perry’s support has gone to Cain, not Romney.
So it makes no sense for Perry to continue attacking Romney. He needs to go after Cain.
Good internals for Cain in this one. Q15 was something I was wanting to see some results for.
Terrific news!
Nail.
Head.
Romney and the GOP establishment are running scared.
I'm kind of hoping that Cain endorsements wait a couple of weeks to pile on. Let Romney get all that he can get early, then have Cain blow him away.
I really don't know if Palin's endorsement will help him much now. I think that most of her supporters already went to Cain.
PINGANATOR!
SHOCK POLL: SC Primary: Cain 26%, Romney 25%, Perry 15%
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2791095/posts
Cain, not Romney, is now the favorite to win the GOP nomination
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2791163/posts
Cain has picked up some endorsements: Lee Greenwood, Trace Adkins, Hank Williams, Jr., Michael W. Smith and more: http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-nashville-based-artists-raising-cain-organization-rallying-around-presidential-candidate-herman-cain-131443863.html
Cain: Effort to ‘Intimidate Me’ Will Not Succeed
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2791137/posts
Herman Cain: Why I Believe He’s Right for Florida and the Nation
http://news.yahoo.com/herman-cain-why-believe-hes-florida-nation-233700336.html
Herman Cain’s got the liberals squirmin’
http://news.bostonherald.com/news/columnists/view/2011_1011hermans_got_theliberals_squirmin/srvc=home&position=2
CNN Hosts Leftists Saying Cain Should Get Off ‘Crack Pipe’
http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/matt-hadro/2011/10/10/cnn-hosts-leftists-saying-cain-should-get-crack-pipe
Herman Cain, The Unusual Candidate
http://www.texasgopvote.com/2012-elections/herman-cain-unusual-candidate-003382
Mitt Romney Suggests Herman Cain May Not Be Ready For The Oval Office
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2790840/posts
FLASHBACK: Gas Prices and Political Hot Air (Cain - 2006)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2791126/posts
Would Herman Cain’s ‘9-9-9’ Plan Tax Poor People’s Food, Clothing?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2791065/posts
Herman Cain: My interview
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2790972/posts
Herman Cain Rips Belafonte And Cornel West: ‘They Don’t Want Black People To Think For Themselves’
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2790932/posts
I don’t have much to donate this month, but some will be squeezed out for Cain and FR, not much, but a token effort. I hope the money starts flowing into Cain’s campaign now.
He has my vote!
Does anyone know if tonight's debate is televised?
I’m buying his book and a couple of bumper stickers. I don’t have much (fixed income) but what I can share goes to Cain.
Great observation that.
Remember when Huckabee was the big thing? Ha ha ha.
What happened to Bachmann? Her soufflé sure fell quickly. I figured she would still be in the top three.
A Essay on Mitt Romney. Post it far and wide. Its damning.
Yes, it is. Bloomberg News channel. Pre-debate coverage begins at 7PM EST, and the debate begins at 8PM EST.
Bachmann, Gingrich, Paul and Perry are essentially tied for third.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.