Posted on 10/11/2011 12:03:53 PM PDT by justsaynomore
Raleigh, N.C. – Herman Cain has surged into the lead in Iowa, and Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann crashed, with three months still to go in the race for the first nominating contest. Cain has 30% to Mitt Romney’s 22%, Ron Paul’s 10%, Perry’s 9%, Newt Gingrich’s and Bachmann’s 8%, Rick Santorum’s 5%, and Jon Huntsman’s and Gary Johnson’s 1%. When PPP last polled the state in August, just after Bachmann’s straw poll win and Perry’s entrance into the race, Perry led with 22% to Romney’s 19%, Bachmann’s 18%, Paul’s 16%, Cain’s 7%, and Gingrich’s and Santorum’s 5%, so Perry has dropped 13 points, Bachmann ten, and Paul six, while Cain is up a whopping 23 points, and Romney and Gingrich each three over the course of a month and a half.
Cain’s support could only grow if other candidates are not viable at certain caucus sites. He and Gingrich, who were first and second in PPP polls in North Carolina, West Virginia, and Nebraska last week, get the most second-choice support. Gingrich is the fallback of 17%, followed by Cain’s 16%, Perry’s 12%, Romney’s and Bachmann’s 11%, and Paul’s 9%. Cain gets the plurality of Bachmann’s, Santorum’s, and surprisingly, Romney’s backers, while Gingrich gets Cain’s and Paul’s, and Romney pulls Gingrich’s and Huntsman’s. Perry’s support is spread around.
Cain leads Romney 2:1 (38-19) among the 42% who say they are firmly committed to their first choice, while the two are tied at 27% among the 58% who may change their mind. Johnson, with his one supporter, has the most committed yet small base. His libertarian compatriate Paul is next; 53% of his voters are with him, do or die, then 52% of Perry’s, half of Cain’s, 43% of Gingrich’s, and then only 34% of Romney’s and a quarter of Bachmann’s. Romney has had consistent but soft support.
“Herman Cain not only has the lead in Iowa, he also has far more committed supporters than Mitt Romney,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That doesn’t mean his support will be lasting though- just ask Michele Bachmann.”
PPP surveyed 311 probable Iowa caucusgoers from October 7th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Michele Bachmann? Favorable........................................................ 44% Unfavorable .................................................... 38% Not sure .......................................................... 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Herman Cain? Favorable........................................................ 63% Unfavorable .................................................... 17% Not sure .......................................................... 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich? Favorable........................................................ 56% Unfavorable .................................................... 32% Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ron Paul? Favorable........................................................ 37% Unfavorable .................................................... 46% Not sure .......................................................... 17%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Perry? Favorable........................................................ 38% Unfavorable .................................................... 41% Not sure .......................................................... 21%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney? Favorable........................................................ 51% Unfavorable .................................................... 36% Not sure .......................................................... 13%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Huckabee? Favorable........................................................ 71% Unfavorable .................................................... 17% Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jon Huntsman? Favorable........................................................ 18% Unfavorable .................................................... 28% Not sure .......................................................... 54%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Johnson? Favorable........................................................ 7% Unfavorable .................................................... 20% Not sure .......................................................... 74%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Fred Karger? Favorable........................................................ 2% Unfavorable .................................................... 13% Not sure .......................................................... 84%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Buddy Roemer? Favorable........................................................ 2% Unfavorable .................................................... 12% Not sure .......................................................... 86%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Santorum? Favorable........................................................ 46% Unfavorable .................................................... 17% Not sure .......................................................... 37%
Q13 If the Republican candidates for President were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for? Michele Bachmann ......................................... 8% Herman Cain................................................... 30% Newt Gingrich ................................................. 8% Jon Huntsman................................................. 1% Gary Johnson ................................................. 1% Ron Paul ......................................................... 10% Rick Perry ....................................................... 9% Mitt Romney.................................................... 22% Rick Santorum................................................ 5% Someone else/Not sure .................................. 5%
Q14 (Asked only of those who made a choce in Q13:) Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else? Strongly committed to that candidate.............. 42% Might end up supporting someone else .......... 58%
Q15 (Asked only of those who made a choice in Q13:) Who would be your second choice for President? Michele Bachmann ......................................... 11% Herman Cain................................................... 16% Newt Gingrich ................................................. 17% Jon Huntsman................................................. 3% Gary Johnson ................................................. 1% Ron Paul ......................................................... 9% Rick Perry ....................................................... 12% Mitt Romney.................................................... 11% Rick Santorum................................................ 5% Someone else/Not sure .................................. 15%
Q16 Do you think that Mitt Romney is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Too liberal ....................................................... 35% Too conservative............................................. 6% About right ...................................................... 48% Not sure .......................................................... 11%
Q17 Do you think that Rick Perry is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Too liberal ....................................................... 21% Too conservative............................................. 15% About right ...................................................... 47% Not sure .......................................................... 16%
Q18 Do you think that Herman Cain is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Too liberal ....................................................... 6% Too conservative............................................. 10% About right ...................................................... 69% Not sure .......................................................... 15%
Q19 If the Republican race for President came down to Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who would you vote for? Mitt Romney.................................................... 46% Rick Perry ....................................................... 37% Not sure .......................................................... 17%
Q20 If the Republican race for President came down to Mitt Romney and Hermain Cain, who would you vote for? Mitt Romney.................................................... 38% Herman Cain................................................... 48% Not sure .......................................................... 14%
Q21 If the Republican race for President came down to Herman Cain and Rick Perry, who would you vote for? Herman Cain................................................... 52% Rick Perry ....................................................... 29% Not sure .......................................................... 19%
Q22 Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party? Yes.................................................................. 29% No ................................................................... 52% Not sure .......................................................... 18%
Q23 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States? Yes.................................................................. 37% No ................................................................... 42% Not sure .......................................................... 22%
Q24 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? Very liberal ...................................................... 3% Somewhat liberal ............................................ 4% Moderate......................................................... 21% Somewhat conservative.................................. 36% Very conservative ........................................... 36%
Q25 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Woman ........................................................... 48% Man................................................................. 52%
Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4. 18 to 29........................................................... 8% 30 to 45........................................................... 28% 46 to 65........................................................... 37% Older than 65.................................................. 27%
I finally found it. That’s why I started looking now. I didn’t want to have to rely on stop and go live feed!
Crazy, isn’t it? I had to look up my Comcast channel availability to find it, lurking here on channel 646. I’ve never watched it before, but I’m grateful to be able to see the debate tonight. Glad you’ll get to watch it too!
“Why would you want Perry who is far behind in the polls to attack conservative Cain? Makes no sense.”
Agreed. It shows that their primary goal isn’t beating Romney. It’s getting Perry elected.
On DISH, it’s listed as BITV.
You can find it streaming live on the net.
And then they wonder why people get frustrated with their shenanigans.
That would be okay on Rush’s part if this were not the most important election in the history of elections with the very fate of the republic hanging in the balance. This country may not survive but hey at least Rush does not have to carry water!
Nice, but a lot can change in three months. Here’s hoping he starts off strong in IA.
What I was saying and what I think Rush meant is that he is not going to go along with the GOP establishment candidate just “for the sake of the party”. I believe he is on the same page as the Tea Partiers (and me)!
When Palin dropped out, some of her support went to Cain, but in reality, she probably handed the GOP nomination to Romney, and the election to Obama.
Palin shouldn’t waste any time either endorsing Cain!
Agreed, Pete!
When Christie jumped into bed with Romney, he found Cain already there.
“Romney is a good choice, but I believe he can’t win”, Cain said to the Washington Times.
Cain went on to explain that Romney’s one problem is his Mormonism, which is highly unpopular in the South.
Other than that, “Romney is a good choice”...signed, Herman Cain.
Cain endorsed Romney in 2008, not grudgingly but in a glowing written endorsement.
In addition, Cain says he could choose Romney as VP, and he could serve as any candidate’s VP except Perry.
The bed is getting crowded, and the leading Tea Party canidate is, for some reason, in there too.
No, with the Perry negatives in this poll, he needs to go home.
This is GREAT!!
Michele Bachman, while I generally liked her, could never "connect" with the voters like Cain is able to do. For whatever reason, her handlers kept her insulated, she would come and go at political events without shaking a single hand. She came across as standoffish and aloof - even a bit of an elitist, as if she felt she was above the "common people." This might not be reality but it was certainly the perceptions of a lot of people.
On the other hand, Cain comes across as very warm and approachable. You can actually imagine having a beer with the guy and striking up a real conversation in a bar, something that would be impossibly stilted and awkward with somebody like Bachmann or Romney.
Cain also has a very good speaking style - something probably honed during his talk radio days. He comes across as extremely intelligent (which he is) but does not come off as a snooty elitist. He has the ability to connect with ordinary people, traits that Reagan and Palin shared.
So I think Cain's level of support runs much deeper than people think. Now that Palin it out of the running, I cannot imagine switching to another candidate at this juncture and I believe many conservatives feel the same way. I think Cain has the conservative "Tea Party" vote locked down and we have only just seen the beginning of his momentum.
“So I think Cain’s level of support runs much deeper than people think. Now that Palin it out of the running, I cannot imagine switching to another candidate at this juncture and I believe many conservatives feel the same way. I think Cain has the conservative “Tea Party” vote locked down and we have only just seen the beginning of his momentum.”
He’s got my family locked in now. I can’t see us switching at this point, either.
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