Posted on 10/11/2011 12:03:53 PM PDT by justsaynomore
Raleigh, N.C. – Herman Cain has surged into the lead in Iowa, and Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann crashed, with three months still to go in the race for the first nominating contest. Cain has 30% to Mitt Romney’s 22%, Ron Paul’s 10%, Perry’s 9%, Newt Gingrich’s and Bachmann’s 8%, Rick Santorum’s 5%, and Jon Huntsman’s and Gary Johnson’s 1%. When PPP last polled the state in August, just after Bachmann’s straw poll win and Perry’s entrance into the race, Perry led with 22% to Romney’s 19%, Bachmann’s 18%, Paul’s 16%, Cain’s 7%, and Gingrich’s and Santorum’s 5%, so Perry has dropped 13 points, Bachmann ten, and Paul six, while Cain is up a whopping 23 points, and Romney and Gingrich each three over the course of a month and a half.
Cain’s support could only grow if other candidates are not viable at certain caucus sites. He and Gingrich, who were first and second in PPP polls in North Carolina, West Virginia, and Nebraska last week, get the most second-choice support. Gingrich is the fallback of 17%, followed by Cain’s 16%, Perry’s 12%, Romney’s and Bachmann’s 11%, and Paul’s 9%. Cain gets the plurality of Bachmann’s, Santorum’s, and surprisingly, Romney’s backers, while Gingrich gets Cain’s and Paul’s, and Romney pulls Gingrich’s and Huntsman’s. Perry’s support is spread around.
Cain leads Romney 2:1 (38-19) among the 42% who say they are firmly committed to their first choice, while the two are tied at 27% among the 58% who may change their mind. Johnson, with his one supporter, has the most committed yet small base. His libertarian compatriate Paul is next; 53% of his voters are with him, do or die, then 52% of Perry’s, half of Cain’s, 43% of Gingrich’s, and then only 34% of Romney’s and a quarter of Bachmann’s. Romney has had consistent but soft support.
“Herman Cain not only has the lead in Iowa, he also has far more committed supporters than Mitt Romney,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That doesn’t mean his support will be lasting though- just ask Michele Bachmann.”
PPP surveyed 311 probable Iowa caucusgoers from October 7th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Michele Bachmann? Favorable........................................................ 44% Unfavorable .................................................... 38% Not sure .......................................................... 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Herman Cain? Favorable........................................................ 63% Unfavorable .................................................... 17% Not sure .......................................................... 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich? Favorable........................................................ 56% Unfavorable .................................................... 32% Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ron Paul? Favorable........................................................ 37% Unfavorable .................................................... 46% Not sure .......................................................... 17%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Perry? Favorable........................................................ 38% Unfavorable .................................................... 41% Not sure .......................................................... 21%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney? Favorable........................................................ 51% Unfavorable .................................................... 36% Not sure .......................................................... 13%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Huckabee? Favorable........................................................ 71% Unfavorable .................................................... 17% Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jon Huntsman? Favorable........................................................ 18% Unfavorable .................................................... 28% Not sure .......................................................... 54%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Johnson? Favorable........................................................ 7% Unfavorable .................................................... 20% Not sure .......................................................... 74%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Fred Karger? Favorable........................................................ 2% Unfavorable .................................................... 13% Not sure .......................................................... 84%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Buddy Roemer? Favorable........................................................ 2% Unfavorable .................................................... 12% Not sure .......................................................... 86%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Santorum? Favorable........................................................ 46% Unfavorable .................................................... 17% Not sure .......................................................... 37%
Q13 If the Republican candidates for President were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for? Michele Bachmann ......................................... 8% Herman Cain................................................... 30% Newt Gingrich ................................................. 8% Jon Huntsman................................................. 1% Gary Johnson ................................................. 1% Ron Paul ......................................................... 10% Rick Perry ....................................................... 9% Mitt Romney.................................................... 22% Rick Santorum................................................ 5% Someone else/Not sure .................................. 5%
Q14 (Asked only of those who made a choce in Q13:) Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else? Strongly committed to that candidate.............. 42% Might end up supporting someone else .......... 58%
Q15 (Asked only of those who made a choice in Q13:) Who would be your second choice for President? Michele Bachmann ......................................... 11% Herman Cain................................................... 16% Newt Gingrich ................................................. 17% Jon Huntsman................................................. 3% Gary Johnson ................................................. 1% Ron Paul ......................................................... 9% Rick Perry ....................................................... 12% Mitt Romney.................................................... 11% Rick Santorum................................................ 5% Someone else/Not sure .................................. 15%
Q16 Do you think that Mitt Romney is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Too liberal ....................................................... 35% Too conservative............................................. 6% About right ...................................................... 48% Not sure .......................................................... 11%
Q17 Do you think that Rick Perry is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Too liberal ....................................................... 21% Too conservative............................................. 15% About right ...................................................... 47% Not sure .......................................................... 16%
Q18 Do you think that Herman Cain is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Too liberal ....................................................... 6% Too conservative............................................. 10% About right ...................................................... 69% Not sure .......................................................... 15%
Q19 If the Republican race for President came down to Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who would you vote for? Mitt Romney.................................................... 46% Rick Perry ....................................................... 37% Not sure .......................................................... 17%
Q20 If the Republican race for President came down to Mitt Romney and Hermain Cain, who would you vote for? Mitt Romney.................................................... 38% Herman Cain................................................... 48% Not sure .......................................................... 14%
Q21 If the Republican race for President came down to Herman Cain and Rick Perry, who would you vote for? Herman Cain................................................... 52% Rick Perry ....................................................... 29% Not sure .......................................................... 19%
Q22 Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party? Yes.................................................................. 29% No ................................................................... 52% Not sure .......................................................... 18%
Q23 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States? Yes.................................................................. 37% No ................................................................... 42% Not sure .......................................................... 22%
Q24 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? Very liberal ...................................................... 3% Somewhat liberal ............................................ 4% Moderate......................................................... 21% Somewhat conservative.................................. 36% Very conservative ........................................... 36%
Q25 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Woman ........................................................... 48% Man................................................................. 52%
Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4. 18 to 29........................................................... 8% 30 to 45........................................................... 28% 46 to 65........................................................... 37% Older than 65.................................................. 27%
Why would you want Perry who is far behind in the polls to attack conservative Cain? Makes no sense.
Probable Iowa caucusgoers were the sample for this one. Good results!
Funny that. Combine the strengths of the four and there is a perfect candidate. Still, I am surprised that Bachmann is so far behind Cain.
Watch the debate at
http://www.bloomberg.com
Team Cain is hosting a live chat again at http://www.livestream.com/thehermancain
good to see the iowa christians are wising up ... by dropping their support for the fading, and no-way to win Michele.
Here’s one to add to your list
http://www.bookerrising.net/2011/09/herman-cain-op-ed-my-plan-to-revive.html
This is probably well discussed on another thread but it is the consensus of EVERYONE with a voice (Limbaugh, et al) that it is impossible for Herman Cain to beat Romney - Romney has too much money.
But I’ll just say that if Romney gets it, and I think the only true conservative with guts to do this, hopefully Palin will run under the Constitution Party. It’s a slim chance she could win like that, but either way, Romney or Obama we have lost the US. Just want to say I am NOT a Palinista and even ambivalent she has decided not to run (right now).
What is Bloomberg news channel??
the whole thing about viability and voters’ second choice is largely irrelevant. The results are reported by the caucus to the state party and media before the viability test.
The DEMS do it after viability is attained. Different story with them.
Rush needs to get endorse Cain! What the hell is he waiting for?
It’s a cable channel. I know Comcast carries it as part of its expanded cable package. I’m pretty sure Dish Network and DirectTV carry it. I’d guess it will probably be streaming online somewhere too, but I don’t have information about that.
I know Rush pooh-pooh’s Cain’s chances sometimes, but Levin, Boortz, Savage and Malkin don’t.
The difference this year is that the “sleeping giant” has been awakened, and he’s being filled with terrible resolve.
We’re not going to let the media, the left, or the RINOs pick our candidate this time.
House Of Cain: Bloomberg Washington Post GOP Debate Is Herman Cain’s To Lose
I can’t find Bloomberg tv. I guess its not on in our area.
My daughter has a part-time minimum wage job while she’s going to college.
She a monthly $10 donor for Cain.
Every little bit helps! :)
bttt
I found it. 178? Who knew. We don’t generally get channels that high. whew, I really wanted to see this debate
Christy and Romney can jump in bed together all they want.
Go Herman Cain!!!!!
P.S. When you win, please don’t sell your soul to the devil and become just another useless POS residing Washington DC.
Thank you!
I have Time Warner cable, and had to go down into the non-HD channels to find it. According to a Facebook posting from Cain, it'll be carried live on the Internet at
http://www.livestream.com/thehermancain
(sorry, my html skills are rusty or else I'd have made it a link).
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