Posted on 09/20/2011 2:44:58 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
The new Gallup poll of the Republican contenders is out, this time with USA TODAY branding. Just looking at the frontrunners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney in isolation, it looks like Romney is gaining. What I find interesting though is where that support appears to be coming from.
Romney’s support may be coming from Michele Bachmann.
Facts of the September poll real quick: 439 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, MoE 6. August’s poll had an MoE of 4 for the Republican subsample, using mobile and landline phones.
Obviously there are other explanations for these movements from August to September, but just look:
Candidate ------------- August ---- September ----Differential
Rick Perry --------------- 29 ------------ 31 ---------------[+2]
Mitt Romney ------------ 17 ------------ 24 ---------------[+7]
Ron Paul ------------------13 ------------ 13 ---------------- [0]
Michele Bachmann ----- 10 --------------5 ---- -----------[-5]
Certainly it might just be a coincidence that a large jump in one candidate is paired with a large drop for another candidate. Half of Michele Bachmann’s prior support might have just become undecided, while a third of Mitt Romney’s present support may have jumped on board the anyone-but-Perry train.
However Romney’s shift is outside of the 95% confidence interval, and Bachmann’s is barely inside, meaning it’s rather unlikely that either is just random noise instead of a real shift. The only question is whether the real movements are linked.
It’s not inconceivable for one of the popular TEA party women to see her backers favor Romney as a second choice. When we look at the August poll with and without Sarah Palin, the removal of Palin’s 11% gives 4% to Perry, 3% to Romney, 2% to Paul, and 3% to Bachmann (obviously figures are rounded and do not sum neatly). Add in the fact that Bachmann has made harsh attacks specifically on Perry over Gardasil, and Bachmann’s supporters going anyone-but-Perry I find to be plausible.
For a while there I broke up the GOP field into three tiers: Perry/Romney, Paul/Bachmann, and the rest. However as Bachmann continues to fall below the Pauldoza line, I think she soon will be indistinguishable in the polling from the rest of the field.
It's called vetting and Perry can't take it he better get out now.
Last time the phrase was Reagan announced on “Labor Day,” and you were all but claiming she’d announce then. So we’re moving the goal posts again? To when, November 5, 2012?
Under no circumstances can Romney be allowed to win. He can NOT be trusted to appoint conservative judges and he would just be a total disaster in any other number of ways.
Show me where I said that. [crickets]
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True...I have been told that was then, now there are drop dead dates fast approaching.
If you consider the end of October as soon....
It is sooner than that....15, 21, 31...lots of leg work prior to those drop dead dates...your looking at 1st week in October.
The fact that she has become a “shrill and annoying” political suicide bomber means she will gradually fade from the GOP limelight, hopefully without seriouslhy damaging anybody but herself.
Good thing she has O4P, Jews for Sarah, Vets4Sarah, C4P and hundreds of other groups behind her then, isn’t it?
Yes, it is...but she is still coming up to drop dead dates...so she’d better prepare to declare...otherwise, it will not matter who is for her. Those first primaries are some of the most important if she bypasses them...well...
Instead of hurting Perry...she destroyed herself and it was done to her by her mouth but also big time by Mittens.
And Gov. Perry marches on, building his army of voters.....
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2781032/posts
How about this (which I have asked you for before with no answer [crickets]): at what date will you finally admit that she is not a candidate? December 2011? After Iowa? After South Carlina? After the GOP convention? Just give me a date. I’ve already told you I’ll admit I was wrong immediately after she announces (which she won’t). At what point would you admit you’re wrong?
Romney is certainly no Conservative. And, the other areas of his term should certainly be exposed. However, he will probably get a pass by many as he will allege that he was dealing with a liberal legislature controlled by the other party.
If he wins the nomination, look for him to announce his ability to “work” with Marxists to get things done.
Soon? How much below 5% does she have to go? Seems to me there are two tiers, those with double digits, and those with delusions of grandeur.
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