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Gallup: Romney gaining from Bachmann?
RedState ^ | September 19, 2011 | Neil Stevens

Posted on 09/20/2011 2:44:58 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

The new Gallup poll of the Republican contenders is out, this time with USA TODAY branding. Just looking at the frontrunners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney in isolation, it looks like Romney is gaining. What I find interesting though is where that support appears to be coming from.

Romney’s support may be coming from Michele Bachmann.

Facts of the September poll real quick: 439 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, MoE 6. August’s poll had an MoE of 4 for the Republican subsample, using mobile and landline phones.

Obviously there are other explanations for these movements from August to September, but just look:

Candidate ------------- August ---- September ----Differential
Rick Perry --------------- 29 ------------ 31 ---------------[+2]
Mitt Romney ------------ 17 ------------ 24 ---------------[+7]
Ron Paul ------------------13 ------------ 13 ---------------- [0]
Michele Bachmann ----- 10 --------------5 ---- -----------[-5]

Certainly it might just be a coincidence that a large jump in one candidate is paired with a large drop for another candidate. Half of Michele Bachmann’s prior support might have just become undecided, while a third of Mitt Romney’s present support may have jumped on board the anyone-but-Perry train.

However Romney’s shift is outside of the 95% confidence interval, and Bachmann’s is barely inside, meaning it’s rather unlikely that either is just random noise instead of a real shift. The only question is whether the real movements are linked.

It’s not inconceivable for one of the popular TEA party women to see her backers favor Romney as a second choice. When we look at the August poll with and without Sarah Palin, the removal of Palin’s 11% gives 4% to Perry, 3% to Romney, 2% to Paul, and 3% to Bachmann (obviously figures are rounded and do not sum neatly). Add in the fact that Bachmann has made harsh attacks specifically on Perry over Gardasil, and Bachmann’s supporters going anyone-but-Perry I find to be plausible.

For a while there I broke up the GOP field into three tiers: Perry/Romney, Paul/Bachmann, and the rest. However as Bachmann continues to fall below the Pauldoza line, I think she soon will be indistinguishable in the polling from the rest of the field.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012gopprimary; bachmann; cervicalcancer; gardasilperry; gopprimary; perrybotshere; poll; rinorick
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1 posted on 09/20/2011 2:45:02 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Now that is interesting!


2 posted on 09/20/2011 2:51:06 AM PDT by McGavin999
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Bachmann's low class cheap shot she took at Perry, looked childish and petty. She just lost all her chances of becoming a front runner and it clearly demonstrates her poor political ability.

3 posted on 09/20/2011 2:52:40 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: McGavin999; shield
She couldn't look Gov. Perry in the eye while going for political points using "innocent little girls."


4 posted on 09/20/2011 2:54:02 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Palin is not a candiate and will not be. Let me guess, the “Late September” announcement has now come and gone. (Isn’t that strange?) So......now.....it will be November! By golly! Fer sher, yup, yoooo betcha! NOVEMBER!!!....!!!!


5 posted on 09/20/2011 2:58:39 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
She just lost all her chances of becoming a front runner and it clearly demonstrates her poor political ability.

This is what happens when conservatives take creatures like Ed Rollins on staff, who have their own close-to-the-vest agenda, and do what these guys tell them, because they're "perfesshunal" Republicrats.

Rollins is just having a good time screwing anyone and everyone on the Right that he can. Someday we'll find the cancelled paychecks from Romney and the RNC.

6 posted on 09/20/2011 2:59:02 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus (Concealed carry is a pro-life position.)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
Palin is not a candiate and will not be.

Mark for later.

7 posted on 09/20/2011 3:01:12 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus (Concealed carry is a pro-life position.)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
The LAST thing we need in the White House is another lecturing Hilleryesque lawyer.
8 posted on 09/20/2011 3:03:57 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

OR:

The LAST thing we need in the White House is another lecturing Obamaesque lawyer.


9 posted on 09/20/2011 3:05:43 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Bachmann’s attacks on Perry are exactly what we, as a party, do not need during this cycle. My respect for her dropped substantially during the past few weeks. She has taken the eye off the ball in focusing our attention on the disastrous Obama presidency and the failing economy and decided to go ruthlessly after our own side on non-issues. If this election successfully becomes about side show issues and not about 9%+ unemployment and massive centralized government spending, our odds of winning drop.


10 posted on 09/20/2011 3:09:42 AM PDT by ilgipper (Everything you get from the government was taken from someone else)
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To: ilgipper

I was just saying the same thing on another thread.

Thank you ilgipper.


11 posted on 09/20/2011 3:13:56 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

The thing about Perry is, he is being exposed and vetted and is coming out shining. There is one thing he is very good at, and that is explaining himself, as well as defending himself.


12 posted on 09/20/2011 3:18:25 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: ilgipper
That's very true, it is especially petty of the “Gardasil fer Lunch Bunch”, who believe something this minimal and trivial, will destroy the career of one of the greatest Governors n Texas History.
13 posted on 09/20/2011 3:21:29 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

The last thing we (OK, you) need in the WH is a lawyer. Full stop!

Get someone in who knows what actual work is!

Perry, Cain, Palin - heck, even Mittens (I think) - all worked in the real world first.

One of the biggest problems with your political system, and ours, is that the only people who can take the time out to run for a position in government are lawyers.


14 posted on 09/20/2011 3:25:30 AM PDT by EnglishCon
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP; Cincinatus' Wife; lentulusgracchus; Virginia Ridgerunner; onyx; Lakeshark; ...

If Governor Sarah Palin is not nor ever will be a candidate, why the fear and loathing? Why even mention her? Hmmmmmm.... The FReeper doth protest too much, methinks.


15 posted on 09/20/2011 3:29:16 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I'll raise $2million for Gov. Sarah Palin. What'll you do?)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Denial ain’t just a river in Perrybot land.


16 posted on 09/20/2011 3:35:12 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Rick Perry has more red flags than a May Day Parade)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

RINO Romney vs. our Mehhiccan friend Ricardo Pherry and all the little Muzzies.
WHO CARES?
NEITHER ONE IS ACCEPTABLE.


17 posted on 09/20/2011 3:38:16 AM PDT by Flintlock (Photo ID for all voters--let our dead rest in peace.)
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To: lentulusgracchus

Eagerly awaiting Sarahs's (Memorial Day), (July 4th), (Labor Day), (Constitution Day), (Halloween),(Thanksgiving), (Christmas), (New Years) Announcement.

(snicker) /s

18 posted on 09/20/2011 3:44:43 AM PDT by catfish1957 (Hey algore...You'll have to pry the steering wheel of my 317 HP V8 truck from my cold dead hands)
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To: ilgipper

Bachmann faded before ever reaching the stretch

A candidate’s bad choices of campaign staff do not a trustworthy president make.

Even her personal appearance has become ghoulish. What gives.

I believe she is at her Peter principle pinnacle right now, in the House. Which is not a bad thing if she would recognize it.

Romney. Will never be the US president. Despite his inner circle co-religionist cabal’s wealth and influence.


19 posted on 09/20/2011 3:50:33 AM PDT by silverleaf (Common sense is not so common - Voltaire)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

No fear or loathing here.


20 posted on 09/20/2011 3:58:21 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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