Posted on 09/20/2011 2:44:58 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
The new Gallup poll of the Republican contenders is out, this time with USA TODAY branding. Just looking at the frontrunners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney in isolation, it looks like Romney is gaining. What I find interesting though is where that support appears to be coming from.
Romneys support may be coming from Michele Bachmann.
Facts of the September poll real quick: 439 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, MoE 6. Augusts poll had an MoE of 4 for the Republican subsample, using mobile and landline phones.
Obviously there are other explanations for these movements from August to September, but just look:
Candidate ------------- August ---- September ----Differential
Rick Perry --------------- 29 ------------ 31 ---------------[+2]
Mitt Romney ------------ 17 ------------ 24 ---------------[+7]
Ron Paul ------------------13 ------------ 13 ---------------- [0]
Michele Bachmann ----- 10 --------------5 ---- -----------[-5]
Certainly it might just be a coincidence that a large jump in one candidate is paired with a large drop for another candidate. Half of Michele Bachmanns prior support might have just become undecided, while a third of Mitt Romneys present support may have jumped on board the anyone-but-Perry train.
However Romneys shift is outside of the 95% confidence interval, and Bachmanns is barely inside, meaning its rather unlikely that either is just random noise instead of a real shift. The only question is whether the real movements are linked.
Its not inconceivable for one of the popular TEA party women to see her backers favor Romney as a second choice. When we look at the August poll with and without Sarah Palin, the removal of Palins 11% gives 4% to Perry, 3% to Romney, 2% to Paul, and 3% to Bachmann (obviously figures are rounded and do not sum neatly). Add in the fact that Bachmann has made harsh attacks specifically on Perry over Gardasil, and Bachmanns supporters going anyone-but-Perry I find to be plausible.
For a while there I broke up the GOP field into three tiers: Perry/Romney, Paul/Bachmann, and the rest. However as Bachmann continues to fall below the Pauldoza line, I think she soon will be indistinguishable in the polling from the rest of the field.
Now that is interesting!
Bachmann's low class cheap shot she took at Perry, looked childish and petty. She just lost all her chances of becoming a front runner and it clearly demonstrates her poor political ability.
Palin is not a candiate and will not be. Let me guess, the “Late September” announcement has now come and gone. (Isn’t that strange?) So......now.....it will be November! By golly! Fer sher, yup, yoooo betcha! NOVEMBER!!!....!!!!
This is what happens when conservatives take creatures like Ed Rollins on staff, who have their own close-to-the-vest agenda, and do what these guys tell them, because they're "perfesshunal" Republicrats.
Rollins is just having a good time screwing anyone and everyone on the Right that he can. Someday we'll find the cancelled paychecks from Romney and the RNC.
Mark for later.
OR:
The LAST thing we need in the White House is another lecturing Obamaesque lawyer.
Bachmann’s attacks on Perry are exactly what we, as a party, do not need during this cycle. My respect for her dropped substantially during the past few weeks. She has taken the eye off the ball in focusing our attention on the disastrous Obama presidency and the failing economy and decided to go ruthlessly after our own side on non-issues. If this election successfully becomes about side show issues and not about 9%+ unemployment and massive centralized government spending, our odds of winning drop.
I was just saying the same thing on another thread.
Thank you ilgipper.
The thing about Perry is, he is being exposed and vetted and is coming out shining. There is one thing he is very good at, and that is explaining himself, as well as defending himself.
The last thing we (OK, you) need in the WH is a lawyer. Full stop!
Get someone in who knows what actual work is!
Perry, Cain, Palin - heck, even Mittens (I think) - all worked in the real world first.
One of the biggest problems with your political system, and ours, is that the only people who can take the time out to run for a position in government are lawyers.
If Governor Sarah Palin is not nor ever will be a candidate, why the fear and loathing? Why even mention her? Hmmmmmm.... The FReeper doth protest too much, methinks.
Denial ain’t just a river in Perrybot land.
RINO Romney vs. our Mehhiccan friend Ricardo Pherry and all the little Muzzies.
WHO CARES?
NEITHER ONE IS ACCEPTABLE.
(snicker) /s
Bachmann faded before ever reaching the stretch
A candidate’s bad choices of campaign staff do not a trustworthy president make.
Even her personal appearance has become ghoulish. What gives.
I believe she is at her Peter principle pinnacle right now, in the House. Which is not a bad thing if she would recognize it.
Romney. Will never be the US president. Despite his inner circle co-religionist cabal’s wealth and influence.
No fear or loathing here.
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