Posted on 09/16/2011 11:23:42 AM PDT by Colonel Kangaroo
Before he entered his first debate as a presidential candidate, Texas Governor Rick Perry was the Republican frontrunner and held a modest lead in a hypothetical matchup against President Obama. Perry was the target for all the other candidates in the two most recent GOP debates, however, and he now trails the president by single digits.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Obama picking up 46% of the vote, while Perry earns support from 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) are either undecided or prefer another candidate. Two weeks ago, Perry was up by three. Three weeks ago, the president held a three-point edge over the governor. (To see question wording, click here.)
Now, Perry’s chief rival for the nomination, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, holds a three-point lead on the president. Another GOP hopeful, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, trails Obama by double digits. The fluctuation in Perry's, Romney's and Bachmann’s numbers comes as a Generic Republican maintains a steady lead over the president.
The president’s Job Approval ratings remain consistently in the low-to-mid 40s. As the election draws closer, Obama’s Job Approval will provide a good indication of his likely vote total. If his Job Approval rating is over 50% in November 2012, it will be difficult for any Republican to beat him. If his ratings move into the low 40s or below, it will be difficult for the president to win unless there is a major third-party candidate in the mix.
Perceptions of the economy are likely to play a significant role in shaping the president’s Job Approval ratings. Currently, Americans say their own finances are weaker than the day Obama took office and significantly weaker than in the fall of 2008.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 14-15, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Obama 46% Perry 39% Sep 14-15, 2011
Obama 46% Bachmann 33% Sep 12-13, 2011
Obama 40% Romney 43% Sep 10-11, 2011
Obama 39% Paul 38% Aug 15-16, 2011
Obama 50% Palin 33% Aug 11-12, 2011
Obama 42% Cain 35% Aug 23-24, 2011
Obama 48% Gingrich 30% June 24-25, 2011
Obama 44% Huntsman 28% July 2, 2011
Obama 45% Santorum 31% July 10-11, 2011
Perry trails Obama by 15 percentage points among women and barely leads among men. Perry trails among voters under 40, runs even among 40-somethings and leads among those 50 and older. It’s worth remembering that most voters over 40 voted against Obama in 2008.
Perry currently attracts just 71% of the Republican vote, while the president wins 85% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either party, the race is a toss-up.
In the race for the Republican nomination nationally, the latest national polling shows Perry on top followed by Romney and Bachmann. In Iowa, Perry is also ahead of his GOP rivals.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
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I find this poll hard to believe that GOP won +8 in a district in NYC, and +22 in a district that went 0bama in 2008 just in the past week.
Perry will lose far more votes on this than he will ever gain. You clearly overestimate the intelligence of the American people and their addiction to entitlements. Historically the left has crushed the GOP on Social Security from Goldwater forward.
If Perry wins the nomination he will be defeated.
You only single out Palin supporters. However, there are supporters of all candidates who dismiss polls that they don't like and they support polls that they do like.
That said, there is no way to prove that a poll this far out from an election is accurate. Because of that, polls this far out are at risk to being inaccurate.
I'm no fan of Perry, but that said, I think that a poll that shows Perry seven points behind Obama at this point in time, are not credible.
You are so right on the loopy seniors who have to purposely have their hands over their ears to not get the dang picture. You know what is happening is that they are having to use their SS check for one thing—more health & Rx insurance.
BTW, contragulations to you in NY-9, the results of which are another reason to think that this poll is inaccurate.
I don’t trust anything Rasmussen puts out. He’s in ROmney’s camp.
Frankly, I think this poll is seriously flawed. There’s no way that all Republicans are behind ZerO in the poll if it is accurate.
Nothing and nobody can ever make me like Romney.
And certainly NOT Jimmy Carter!
Oops! Sorry, I guess my previous statement was not quite accurate - it does show Romney beating Obama. Nevertheless, the poll is clearly flawed. At minimum, I would say any of the top 3 would beat Obama’s pants off at this point.
Can I state what should be the obvious? Partisans of candidates are going to claim to a pollster that they will not vote for a primary competitor. I’d probably tell a pollster that I would not vote for Perry or Romney, just to make MY candidate look stronger. Now, I don’t like either guy, but if it comes down to it in November, I’ll vote for a guy stumbling off a bar stool over the Failure. Bob
I know, wasn’t that hysterical?
Lol, and how many returns did you get on the google search. What book was I talking about, none, what book was the thread about none. So what does a book have to do with it nothing.
Personally, when Carter belched his support for Romney, I ordered a bumper sticker, “Carter’s Choice: Milt Romney”. Too bad he lost the Tom Ridge endorsement! Bob
SO.... Liberal, progressive, and socialist outlets want Myth Romney to run against the empty suit Obama?...
The question one must ask himself is WHY?...
Is Myth Romney Plan “B”... and by the way is Rick Perry Plan “C”..
For sure they do not want Bachmann to win...
They probably believe Caine can be outfoxed or bamboozled.. in some way..
The way they do with ALL BLACKS.. from MLK to Louis Farrand..
Folks don’t take the bait. The Rats are effectively dividing republicans. obuttface is the only candidate on the side of the marxist left, aka demorats. Perry has considerable competition and any opponent of bo’s will be thoroughly vilified by the statist media.
LOL. Yep. The kiss of death and Carter also bothered to thank Michele Bachmann for her college day support, the old commie bastard.
I’m thankful he hates Sarah Palin.
:)
Bull the man has a history of being very accurate In his polls.
ROTFL.
Lucky ole Huntsman, huh?
The problem with polling a general election during a primary season, especially when only one party is having a real primary, is that supporters of other candidates use the poll to try to prop up their candidates.
So, for example, only 71% of republicans say they would vote for Perry in a Perry/Obama matchup. Now, who here actually believes that 29% of the republicans would either stay home or vote for Obama if Perry was the nominee?
Much more likely is that there are 29% of republicans who like their own choice of candidate so much that they are saying they won’t vote for Perry in order to drive down his “electability”.
Any candidate’s supporters could be doing this. However, the only candidates with enough supporters to get a sufficient number to play this game are Romney (the 2nd-place candidate) and Palin, who has a smaller, but extremely committed fan base many of whom are certainly telling pollsters they would vote for Obama over ANY candidate other than Palin.
But I don’t expect that to be the case when we actually have our nominee, even if it Mitt Romney, much less a guy Palin called a “true conservcative” who has long-supported the tea party like Rick Perry.
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