Posted on 09/16/2011 11:23:42 AM PDT by Colonel Kangaroo
Before he entered his first debate as a presidential candidate, Texas Governor Rick Perry was the Republican frontrunner and held a modest lead in a hypothetical matchup against President Obama. Perry was the target for all the other candidates in the two most recent GOP debates, however, and he now trails the president by single digits.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Obama picking up 46% of the vote, while Perry earns support from 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) are either undecided or prefer another candidate. Two weeks ago, Perry was up by three. Three weeks ago, the president held a three-point edge over the governor. (To see question wording, click here.)
Now, Perry’s chief rival for the nomination, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, holds a three-point lead on the president. Another GOP hopeful, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, trails Obama by double digits. The fluctuation in Perry's, Romney's and Bachmann’s numbers comes as a Generic Republican maintains a steady lead over the president.
The president’s Job Approval ratings remain consistently in the low-to-mid 40s. As the election draws closer, Obama’s Job Approval will provide a good indication of his likely vote total. If his Job Approval rating is over 50% in November 2012, it will be difficult for any Republican to beat him. If his ratings move into the low 40s or below, it will be difficult for the president to win unless there is a major third-party candidate in the mix.
Perceptions of the economy are likely to play a significant role in shaping the president’s Job Approval ratings. Currently, Americans say their own finances are weaker than the day Obama took office and significantly weaker than in the fall of 2008.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 14-15, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Obama 46% Perry 39% Sep 14-15, 2011
Obama 46% Bachmann 33% Sep 12-13, 2011
Obama 40% Romney 43% Sep 10-11, 2011
Obama 39% Paul 38% Aug 15-16, 2011
Obama 50% Palin 33% Aug 11-12, 2011
Obama 42% Cain 35% Aug 23-24, 2011
Obama 48% Gingrich 30% June 24-25, 2011
Obama 44% Huntsman 28% July 2, 2011
Obama 45% Santorum 31% July 10-11, 2011
Perry trails Obama by 15 percentage points among women and barely leads among men. Perry trails among voters under 40, runs even among 40-somethings and leads among those 50 and older. It’s worth remembering that most voters over 40 voted against Obama in 2008.
Perry currently attracts just 71% of the Republican vote, while the president wins 85% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either party, the race is a toss-up.
In the race for the Republican nomination nationally, the latest national polling shows Perry on top followed by Romney and Bachmann. In Iowa, Perry is also ahead of his GOP rivals.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
—Jimmy Carter lost the 1980 election in large part to his incompetence in the calendar year 1980 itself.—
Yep. And I think it will happen in spades to Obama. As bad as he’s been, we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
Mayby I’ll throw my hat in the ring. This president thing could be interesting.
Try a google search, http://readersupportednews.org/off-site-opinion-section/72-72/7009-rick-perry-social-security-and-medicare-are-unconstitutional
Obama won’t win the next election.
I was surprised to see that he only reaches 50% when matched against Sarah Palin - I didn't expect that.
The intelligent move is to bring up reform after the election.
The intelligent move is to bring up reform after the election.
Did you hear what Rush said to day about we could not afford another California, which is what Perry is doing with his dream act.
Actually, I think this is probably a good snapshot of the current state of play. Perry got hit hard on the Gardasil and immigration issues, and a dip in the polls was to be expected. What will be more telling is how the polls look in a couple more weeks - will they start trending down, or will they recover? I don't dismiss polls just because they have information I don't like (unlike the supporter of a non-candidate I know), but neither do I take the results of a single poll as definitive. Rather, I look at the trends - what happens over several polls from different pollsters? If they all show movement one direction or another, then that is probably how the race is moving at that time.
Like your source work, Think Progress, there. I read the quote from Rick. BANG ON.
The “general welfare” does not include top down crippling regulation, taxation and redistribution of wealth.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters?.....
From where?...Portland, Oregon?
So I should count on four more years of Obama in other words.
“You think Rasmussen’s in the tank for the establishment? I don’t want to think that. He’s always so accurate on election day.”
I haven’t trusted Rasmussen since 2009. During the first year of Obama’s term Rasmussen was the first to show his approval dropping (and fast). The white house went on the offensive against him specifically and suddenly Obama’s numbers began to moderate.
We are now 2 years later and Obama has become much less popular among ALL demographics, yet Rasmussen shows his approval to be essentially unchanged from 2 years ago. Rasmussen went from one of the lowest approval ratings to now having pretty much the highest. I do not buy what Rasmussen is trying to push...
They may have thrown in a few from Eugene, OR as well...
>>> “ The intelligent move is to bring up reform after the election. “ <<<
The “old folks” are healthier and far smarter than they were in the past. The MESSAGE is getting crucified when American seniors can’t seem to hear that there is NO CHANGE whatsoever to Social Security for now 50 year olds and up, and certainly nor current recipients. Pretty maddening we can’t make that message stick. I don’t know any seniors that don’t understand that, however. Do you?
—The intelligent move is to bring up reform after the election.—
I think it is a cowardly move. The retired are not stupid. It is very easy to get the message out that nobody currently on SS or very close to it will be affected by what Perry is suggesting. Will it cost him votes? You bet. But it will also get him votes, both from the intelligent and ethical SS recipients as well as those who are not on SS, including those just entering thw workforce that wonder what they are going to be paying, and why.
This is almost a Sarah move. Perry is clearly winning this SS debate. It was the right move.
>>> “ So I should count on four more years of Obama in other words. “ <<<<
YOU BETCHA!
In other words, either can beat Obama, unless of course you wanna write in some non-candidate, or Paul. There lay your guarantee for the Obama re-election.
Someone needs to make a cognizant argument to seniors that receiving a social security check with no buying power due to inflation is just as bad as not receiving a check at all. If the check comes and it barely pays for the electric bill, a bag of Doritos and a gallon of milk –is it worth selling their grandchildren down the pike as well as the country?
Your link does not contain a quote from Rick Perry that SS is unconstitutional. I just searched the book again and it is most certainly not in “Fed Up!”
Looks like Romney pulled 6% of the dems away from Obama. Is that supposed to make us like him?
I think Rasmussen was taken to the White House for a chat ,like the CBO head was
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