Posted on 08/26/2011 9:40:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Approximately 65 million people are likely to be directly impacted by Hurricane Irene as the storm takes aim at the densely populated Eastern Seaboard. Evacuations are underway for high flood risk areas.
Mass transit cancellations, schedule changes and road/bridge closures are occurring throughout the storm warning areas. Please check with local news and Emergency Management Operations to determine the recommendations for your immediate area.
Mash image to enlarge
Mash image to enlarge
Radar Images & Loops (interactive maps short/long range) Southeast
Northeast (Cape Hatteras to NE)
Satellite Images Still Images/Loops (both Flash & Java)
Buoy Data: Florida
Southeast US
Northeast US
Local News Coverage: WWAY 3 Wilmington NC
WRAL Raleigh NC
WETC Wilmington NC
WAVY Portsmouth VA w/Live Stream coverage link
WTVR Richmond VA
WUSA Washington DC
WBAL Baltimore MD
CBS Local Baltimore
WPVI Philadelphia
WTXF My Fox Philly
WABC NYC
WTNH New Haven CT
WHDH Boston
Just... WOW... Nature's fury.
- Long Duration of Sustained Winds: Based on Irene's massive size and the relatively slow speed at which she is moving, many of the locations from NC northward into SNE are going to experience sustained winds (even if they are TS level, e.g., 60-70 MPH, vs. Cat 1 level) for 24+ hours. That is a long time for everything including people, buildings, and trees to withstand. (Of course, there will be periods of higher wind gusts all throughout, which will serve to increase the stress level up and down.)
- Very Saturated Ground: As noted by many, a great deal of the EC has seen very high rainfall totals for August (e.g., in NJ most places are at 200-600% of normal). This presents multiple problems: root systems are looser than normal, no where for the additional rain to go, catch basins, reservoirs, and sewers are already full in many spots.
- Very High QPF Totals Expected: We've seen double digit QPF modeled for a lot of places along the expected path. Dropping 12+ inches on new water into a very saturated environment will likely lead to massive inland flooding.
- Coastal Geography: many locations along the path have narrowing inlets that are heavily populated along the coast. Forcing the extreme amount of surge that comes with a massive storm like Irene will be forcing a tremendous amount of water up into narrowing “dead ends.”
- NYC & LI Coastal Geography: While many have correctly pointed out that Gulf storms are surging a mountain of water into an enclosed area, there is also a very problematic geographic consideration when you look at the coastal geography of NNJ, NYC, and LI. You basically have a right-angle elbow of LI extending out into the Atlantic. Since this surge (from the massive Irene with all of her attendant energy) is coming in from the SE, it is being directed right into the crook of the elbow (and of course NYC boroughs are located right above). So this massive storm surge (which is more than likely going to be the equivalent of a Cat 2, regardless of what wind speed Irene arrives with) is all being jammed into this tightening funnel.
- Tidal considerations: Many EC locations are experiencing their highest tides this weekend. Given such a long duration event based on Irene's size and speed, some areas may experience 2 High Tides during Irene's passage. That just furthers the coastal flooding potential.
- Power Disruptions: Given the extensive swath of EC real estate that is going to be affected by Irene's windfield for a prolonged period of time, there are chances of really “widespread” outages. And if you consider how reciprocity works when a few states are hit hard, a lot of help comes in from adjoining states. Well, in Irene's case many of the naturally adjoining states will be out as well. Hence help will be coming from all across the US, and there may be weeks of effort required. Also, if you consider that the EC is one of the most densely populated areas of the country, think about the massive amount of infrastructure that will be affected. I suspect the larger population centers will get the most immediate attention for economic considerations, this will leave many in the more sparsely populated or more rural areas stranded for what could be many weeks.
I could go on an on but I think I made my main points. Sorry for the long winded rant but I have been a bit annoyed at hearing some people simply minimize the threat of this storm based on wind speed and/or “category,” without taking into consideration the most relevant factors.
Let's all stay safe, help each other out, and remain in prayer for the duration!
So half a million folks in NC have lost power...why do some think this is a big nothing?
One thing I hate about where we are (NAS Patuxent River area) is that the “local” TV stations are based out of DC (1 1/2 hours away) or Baltimore (2 hrs away) so it’s not often our area even gets mentioned on the news. Been watching a lot of FoxNews and Weather Channel lately...
COLORADO!!!!!!!!!! Good Grief-that states stays covered in snow! You’ll freeze...
Especially after that mega-quake the other day. It's a real one-two punch for sure. Someone needs to post that image of the knocked over chair... this time with a second chair blown over.
LOL!!!
I will be staying dry this evening - I underestimated how much beer should have been purchased and I doubt the corner mart on the highway is open. SIGH
Just heard 500,000+ people in Virginia are without power in the Virginia Beach/Norfolk/Hampton Roads area as well as Richmond. There has been sporadic outages here in Accomack County.
I live north of Raleigh and our winds are 23 sustained with strongest gust so far 43.6
One thing is the 9/11 Memorial Park is within the Category 1 Surge zone;
Unless they do some real serious sandbagging I suspect it will be flooded and ruined.
Good point, never even thought about that. I suspect they will pull out all the stops to try to minimize the damage there.
There are plenty of higher windspeed readings from buoys in the vicinity. Perhaps there is a conspiracy by weather buoys to over-hype the storm.
Thank you, zzeeman! I do appreciate your detailed explanation. If Irene is a big nothing, I’ll have a lot of food and drink for weeks to come and my survival kit ready for another “just in case” situation in the future. In the meantime, it’s a bit scary considering we are not used to such storms. Being on this thread together is a big help. :)
Who has sustained winds at 60-70 MPH? I keep checking all the weather stations and I can’t find a thing over gust of 45. I’ve lived in Florida all of my life. I know a bad hurricane or tropical storm when I see one. Of course there are power outages. Weak limbs fall on the power lines or the power lines were not maintained well. 45 MPH should not snap power lines.
It could actually drop to Tropical Storm strength at this instant
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psssst, that thing has been a tropical storm or depression for a while now.
Good for you! We’ve got a nice calm right now. Just a light breeze and light rain.
I don’t think it is a big nothing at all, but I am a little leary of the media and the government for sure.
BTW..We have had over a half of million people in Texas without power at times during this heat wave.Mine went off the other day for 8 hours when it was 105 degrees outside. Hopefully they have the right folks ready to come in clear the roads and it won’t be off too long for you guys. I am praying for all in harm’s way tonight.
Nah...the snow stays mostly on the west side of the mounts and IN the mounts. I live in the high desert area north of Denver...we had 8 inches TOTAL snow last winter. A few cold -20 Days but the rest were in the 50-60’s and sunny.
Given your OBVIOUS considerable expertise in tropical cyclone meteorology, could you please put together a list of all the tropical storms and depressions with central pressures under 950 mb, and post it here? Thanks!
Recon just made a center pass, the pressure has continued to slowly drop.
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