Posted on 08/10/2011 11:07:32 AM PDT by smoothsailing
Seth Mandel
August 10, 2011
In April, Human Events published a column offering ten reasons Sarah Palin will run for president. Last month, Fox News host Greta Van Susteren blogged about the seven reasons Palin will run for president. Then last week, Henry D’Andrea, writing in the Washington Times, offered three reasons he believes Palin will run for president.
Though I’ve been skeptical all along that Palin would run, I would imagine the entrance of Rick Perry into the race will give Palin one very good reason not to. Perry’s candidacy has, as many others have pointed out, put several of the Republican campaigns on life support. As I wrote last week, the latest Gallup poll numbers show once Perry is included, Republican primary voters show substantially less interest in candidates outside the field. There may still be calls for Paul Ryan or Chris Christie to get in the race, but Perry has quieted the clamoring for “someone else.” But the numbers also show why he easily replaces Palin.
Perry has two impressive numbers in the Gallup polling: his overall placement (second, right behind Mitt Romney) and his “positive intensity score.” Gallup defines this as “the difference between strongly favorable and strongly unfavorable opinions among those who are familiar with him or her. This score provides an indication of the intensity of support among a candidate’s base of followers at any given point in the campaign.”
In the most recent Gallup polling, Perry’s positive intensity score is at 23, five points higher than Palin’s 18. The full poll, however, shows when Perry and Palin are in the race together, Perry polls at 15 percent to Palin’s 12. (The poll includes Rudy Giuliani as well.) Additionally, Perry has the kind of grassroots support, popularity with conservative new media and solid reputation among conservative evangelical voters from which Palin would build a campaign.
For Palin to run, she would need to focus her firepower on a moderate establishment candidate, like Romney. But Perry may well begin his official campaign as either the frontrunner or close to it. A Palin candidacy would seem unnecessary to primary voters once Perry is in the race. I’m sure speculation will continue, but Perry seems to have closed the door on a Palin candidacy this year.
Is this sarcasm? Palin already has a plethora of gaffes to her credit..
I'm sure that's true. It's strange too.
It's liberals that I expect to be all enraptured with their messianic rockstar candidates (Clinton,Obama,Castro,Chavez, etc.).It's strange when self-described conservatives carry on that way.
We don't usually particularly even like the people we vote for, we just figure they'll love the country, encourage prosperity, and stay out of our lives.
That's the way I see Palin, or Perry for that matter.
Perry's the consummate politician, but his supposed electoral difficulties are being vastly overblown here by Palin supporters. I think he walks away with the nomination with or without Pain on the race.
Palin is not in. The others are. Have been for a while now. If she gets in, Perry gets in and the vote gets split so much that Romney wins the nod ala McCain, then yes I will blame her.
Thank you, I have to remember this it's very persuasive.
And Perry as well.
Recent eminent domain cases prove that the system already thinks ownership is also at their convenience and not a matter of the rights of the individual.
She could possibly get nominated, but no Dems. and very few independents would vote for her.
If any Republican can be elected, it will probably be Perry or Romney. Palin should take a cabinet appointment (and not quit if she can't take the liberal media and democommie hatred), and try to change her image in the eyes of independents. Then, perhaps she could run for higher office later.
You got that right! The media will go on full 24/7/365 ridicule duty of Sarah. Nothing else will be printed or spoken or displayed until she announces her withdrawal from the race.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.