Posted on 08/10/2011 11:07:32 AM PDT by smoothsailing
Seth Mandel
August 10, 2011
In April, Human Events published a column offering ten reasons Sarah Palin will run for president. Last month, Fox News host Greta Van Susteren blogged about the seven reasons Palin will run for president. Then last week, Henry D’Andrea, writing in the Washington Times, offered three reasons he believes Palin will run for president.
Though I’ve been skeptical all along that Palin would run, I would imagine the entrance of Rick Perry into the race will give Palin one very good reason not to. Perry’s candidacy has, as many others have pointed out, put several of the Republican campaigns on life support. As I wrote last week, the latest Gallup poll numbers show once Perry is included, Republican primary voters show substantially less interest in candidates outside the field. There may still be calls for Paul Ryan or Chris Christie to get in the race, but Perry has quieted the clamoring for “someone else.” But the numbers also show why he easily replaces Palin.
Perry has two impressive numbers in the Gallup polling: his overall placement (second, right behind Mitt Romney) and his “positive intensity score.” Gallup defines this as “the difference between strongly favorable and strongly unfavorable opinions among those who are familiar with him or her. This score provides an indication of the intensity of support among a candidate’s base of followers at any given point in the campaign.”
In the most recent Gallup polling, Perry’s positive intensity score is at 23, five points higher than Palin’s 18. The full poll, however, shows when Perry and Palin are in the race together, Perry polls at 15 percent to Palin’s 12. (The poll includes Rudy Giuliani as well.) Additionally, Perry has the kind of grassroots support, popularity with conservative new media and solid reputation among conservative evangelical voters from which Palin would build a campaign.
For Palin to run, she would need to focus her firepower on a moderate establishment candidate, like Romney. But Perry may well begin his official campaign as either the frontrunner or close to it. A Palin candidacy would seem unnecessary to primary voters once Perry is in the race. I’m sure speculation will continue, but Perry seems to have closed the door on a Palin candidacy this year.
Prediction:
Sarah Palin runs. She gets many top conservative endorsements. The biggest one will be Rush Limbaugh. Rush will break his tradition and support a candidate in the primary, Palin. He will fund raise for her on the radio and in person.
Palin will run an unconventional campaign. The other candidates and the libs won't know what hit them.
Palin/West 2012 No substitutes.
Perry was in real trouble for reelection just last year when he begged Palin to come in and campaign for him. He squeaked through the primary with just over 50% against two very weak candidates, Hutchison and a Paulbot truther.
He got less than 55% of the vote in the general against Bill White, a lousy Dem candidate, in deep red Texas,in a huge GOP year, winning by only 12. Even though it was a huge GOP year. By comparison, Marco Rubio, running in purple Florida, against a former Governor and a Dem Congressman, won by 20 and got nearly 50% of the vote.
In 2006, a big Dem year, Palin won a three way primary with 51%, trouncing a sitting Governor by 32%. She won a three way race in the general with nearly 50% as well, trouncing a former Governor.
Perry barely won reelection in 2006 with only 39% of the vote. Perry=less there than meets the eye.
He is a joke of a candidate. His polls are as impressive to any discerning observer as were Rudy Giuliani’s in 2007-8.
Palin will squash him like a Texas beetle. I can’t wait until she debates this genius.
Palin/Rubio
Labor Day..Game On
WHo the devil is Seth Mandel? Why should anyone care what this little dweeb thinks? He looks to be about 21. I never heard of him before. He seems, from his limited bio, to be a Weekly Standard/NRO RINO type who writes mostly about the Middle East. What he knows of domestic politics obviously wouldn’t fill a thimble.
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/author/seth-mandel/
Interesting ploy re: Perry/Bachmann, though I don’t think it would work. I don’t see where Palin has anyone strong on foreign affairs that she’d have to apologize for her own gubernatorial background. West as a first term congressman would be disastrous IMO and Petraeus unnecessarily risky. I say she goes with another guv so she can keep to her executive outside Washington theme. Daniels would do, bringing congressional experience as well. Perry probably just blew it, as I suspect he was telling her he was really on her team until a week or two ago.
Cheers.
VP Marco Rubio elected President 2028 with running mate Track Palin.....
Geez, I can dream, can't I?
Our Country is in serious trouble; possibly nearing the point of no return; I don’t know. After seeing big talkers and pretenders come and go, bloviate and fold, flash-in-the-pan and turn out to be a false clinker, there is only one person that I would really feel good about as the candidate and next POTUS. There are one or two others that I could live with, but would not have near the confidence that when the chips were down they wouldn’t fold like a cheap umbrella, like the many before them. I am imploring God my Heavenly Father to protect Sarah Palin and her family; and to promote and raise her up to be our next POTUS. I also call down condemnation and REMOVAL upon the imposter now illegally occupying that office.
When I use the word REMOVAL, I mean a Divine Judgement upon him, such as removed King Herod in Acts 12.
Act 12:21 And upon a set day Herod, arrayed in royal apparel, sat upon his throne, and made an oration unto them.
Act 12:22 And the people gave a shout, saying, It is the voice of a god, and not of a man.
Act 12:23 And immediately the angel of the Lord smote him, because he gave not God the glory: and he was eaten of worms, and gave up the ghost.
In lieu of a Divine Judgement such as that, I can be happy with a landslide victory for Sarah Palin and Herman Cain.
LOL—”economic conservatives”? Is that the new euphemism for RINOs? There’s nothing economically conservative about Romney—and little economically conservative about Perry.
LOL. Or her Abrams tank!
Economic conservatives -- like those aligned with the Club for Growth, who, for some reason, endorsed Romney in the last election -- will flock to Perry because Texas has the best state economy in the nation.
What the hell are you talking about? Who said anything about a kitchen or cookies?
I was responding to the suggestion that she become Bachmann’s Chief of Staff. Which I suggest would be a waste of her talents. Head of the RN is a far more important job and better suited to her talents.
You may think Chief of Staff is a better job for her, but I think you are wrong about that. Head of the RNC is not a job baking cookies.
I see, it’s a euphemism for simplistic thinkers. Thanks.
(The proven economic conservative is Gov. Palin.)
I’m sorry. I think you missed my meaning entirely. Nothing less than President would be a sufficient use of her gifts. She should not settle for anything less. That’s what I meant.
No Perry will become the generic republican and Romney will fade.
If we end up with Romney because Perry, Palin, and Bachmann cancel each other out, then shame on them. If they can’t get together in a room and agree to push just one candidacy, then they are part of the problem.
I guarantee you that I will not vote for Romney or any other pro-abortion candidate.
The Constitution Party candidate will get my vote.
I’m sorry. Yes, I misunderstood. I thought you were disagreeing that Head of the RNC was more important than Chief of Staff.
I didn’t realize you were starting a new conversation.
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