Posted on 08/09/2011 1:05:24 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Gallup delivers two blasts at the Obama administration today for its handling of the economy. The first comes in its daily tracking poll, which reacted rather badly to Barack Obama’s speech from the White House yesterday. His approval rating dropped three points to its previous low of 40% after only one cycle of polling. Disapproval rose back to 50%, up two points from the day before. That sharp drop could amplify over the next couple of days, especially considering the beating Obama is taking across the political spectrum for his ill-considered rehash of an address. It’s possible that we will see Obama drop below 40% for the first time ever as Saturday and Sunday responses roll out of the survey data.
In not unrelated news, economic confidence plunged to its lowest level since shortly after Obama took office:
Americans’ economic confidence plunged to -53 in the week ending Aug. 7, a level not seen since the recession days of March 2009. This deterioration coincided with the final wrangling over the U.S. debt ceiling and Standard and Poor’s downgrade of the United States’ debt rating. Economic confidence is now far worse than the -43 of two weeks ago and the -34 of a month ago.
U.S. economic confidence deteriorated even faster in July and the first week of August than it did in June compared with May. This plunge in confidence contrasts with the relatively flat trend in 2010. It also places consumer perceptions of the economy in the range of March 2009 during the recession. Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index hit its recession/financial crisis weekly low of -65 — just 12 points worse than now — during the week of Oct. 6-12, 2008.
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index combines two measures: one assessing Americans’ views about whether the U.S. economy is “getting better” or “getting worse,” and the second involving Americans’ ratings of current economic conditions as “excellent,” “good,” “only fair,” or “poor.” The Index’s inception was in January 2008. Both weekly ratings are at their lows since early 2009.
Given these numbers, Obama’s boast that “we will always be a AAA country” probably fell on disbelieving ears. Americans do not see much reason for optimism, as it becomes clear that the “recovery” was mainly the impact of short-term policy gimmickry and not sustainable growth. After listening to Obama’s speech yesterday, with his call to build more roads, bridges, and airports, Americans can deduce that Obama doesn’t have anything else but more gimmickry to offer.
This seems like a good point to recall the words of the Democratic Party’s national chair, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who tried telling Americans last week (and two months earlier, too) to just believe the White House and stop paying attention to their own lying eyes. Like Obama, Debbie Downer seems to lack a Plan B in the face of adversity:
How can anyone have confidence in an administration and a political party that refuses to acknowledge reality? If they’re still running with a “Happy Days Are Here Again” theme by next summer, the elections might be a bloodbath for Democrats.
Thanks SeekAndFind.
Unlike the nursing and journalism majors that slept through my basic statistics course, I actually learned something. Every single talking head on TV imputes an accuracy to polling that simply cannot be had by the math.
For convenience, polls are expressed as, say, 48% approval, +/-3 points. This does not mean that the central point of the range (48) is the likeliest answer. ALL points within the range (45-51 in this case) are EQUALLY likely. It only means the real answer is somewhere in that range (with a stated certainty, usually 95% for political polls).
If a poll like this one with a stated margin of +/- 3 moves by 3 points or less, nothing can be concluded. A “fall” of 3 points, say from 48 to 45 could actually represent a rise - if the actual answer in the first poll was 46 (equally likely within a 48 +/-3 range) and the second poll which showed 45 and the actual number was 47.
The increase in the sample size required to increase accuracy beyond +/-3 is usually cost and time prohibitive and is rarely used in political polls.
It would be the same as having a tape measure marked to 1/16” and needing to measure with an accuracy of 1/64.” You can strain and hold your tongue in various parts of your head, but the tool simply can’t do the job.
While I might be inclined to agree with you about journalism majors who don't know the difference between a bullet and a cartridge or a revolver and a semi, I do not agree with you about nursing students.
Nursing students I have dealt with have been smart and focused. Baccalaureate and graduate level students are some of the best students.
If it were Bush, the MSM will make sure his ratings dropped 12 points.
“I think Ras is a sellout. According to him, Obama has lost ZERO approval since December 2009. I find it impossible to believe and no other polling firm confirms his results.”
I get the Rasmussen polls daily. 0 has been all over the board but he is (as of today) -21 from favorable to unfav.
We need repeated “bloodbaths” in the next three or four elections to get a handle on things.
The fact is very few statistics students learn very much. It is far too difficult for most students.
How in the name of God can %45 of the people still be THAT f8cking stupid and vote for this guy ?
We can rid ourselves of Obama but what do we do with the millions of imbeciles who are brainwashed tools for the Dems and Liberals ? THAT is the real problem. We have a nation of morons and a generation of brainwashed lemmings.
“After listening to Obama’s speech yesterday, with his call to build more roads, bridges, and airports, Americans can deduce that Obama doesn’t have anything else but more gimmickry to offer.”
Obama forgot to include pyramids in that list of public works projects.
On the topic of pretty much anything that needs to be fixed in this country, Obama is on the exact wrong side of the issue.
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