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Cash Hoarding Starts
Townhall.com ^ | August 5, 2011 | Mike Shedlock

Posted on 08/05/2011 2:23:37 PM PDT by Kaslin

The BNY Mellon apparently does not want money, not to lend, not at all. In a mad dash for cash Mellon has been flooded with it. Overnight lending rates went negative.

Please consider BNY Mellon to Slap Fees on Some Big Deposits Amid Global Race to Cash

Bank of New York Mellon Corp. is preparing to charge some large depositors to hold their cash, in the latest sign of the worries roiling global markets.

The big U.S. custodial bank said this week in a note to clients that it will begin slapping a fee next week on customers that have vastly increased their deposit balances over the past month.

The bank cited the heavy dollar deposits it has received over recent weeks, as investors and corporations retreat from financial markets amid Europe's debt crisis and the recent debate over U.S. government borrowing.

BNY Mellon's decision sent money-market mutual funds and financial institutions scrambling to put their cash to work in short-term markets Thursday, sending rates falling across many investments. Treasury bill prices rose, pushing down their yields down sharply, and interest rates on overnight securities repurchase, or repo, agreements tumbled.

The cost of borrowing overnight in this market tumbled below zero Thursday, after starting the day at around 0.08%.

BNY Mellon said that it will charge 0.13% plus an additional fee if the one-month Treasury yield dips below zero on depositors that have accounts with an average monthly balance of $50 million "per client relationship," according to a letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. The charges will take effect on accounts held on Aug. 8, and will be charged in the subsequent billing cycle.

The torrent of cash looking for a safe place continues to grow. The Bank of Japan this week intervened in currency markets, essentially printing yen and buying dollars. "Those dollars need to find a home and it's probably going to come to the Treasury market," BofA Merrill Lynch's Mr. Smedley said.
Everyone Hoarding Cash

Everyone is looking to hoard cash. Let me ask a simple question.

Does this happen in hyperinflation or does it happen in deflation?

In its grand QE experiment the Fed pushed rates to zero, flooded the world with cash, then expected banks to lend and businesses to expand. Did it work?

Clearly not. No one wants to put that cash to use. If you were a business would you be hiring here? I wouldn't, and neither are businesses. Instead cash sits in banks or short-term treasuries earning zero or even negative percent.

When was hyperinflation supposed to start?

Oh, I just remembered: 2011, a year chosen by at least a couple people. Others expect it next year.

Hyperinflationists simply do not understand the role of credit in a global economy. China has a huge inflation problem and various property bubbles because credit growth is soaring 30% annually.

In the US, banks want credit-worthy borrowers. However, credit-worthy borrowers are parking cash, not asking for more of it.

Nearly everything was smashed today except much despised US treasuries, the US dollar, and the Swiss Franc. The latter held up in spite of Swiss central bank intervention.

The Dow closed down over 500 points, about 4.12%. Percentage-wise the S&P 500 performed even worse, down 4.5%. The Nasdaq 100 Index was clobbered nearly 100 points or 4.23%. The Nasdaq composite was down 137 points, slightly over 5%.

Here is a screenshot right after the close.

Equities Bloodbath



click on chart for sharper image

ES and NQ are the symbols for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures.

The only thing green on my screen were the $VIX, TLT (the Lehman long-term treasury fund), and DUG (an inverse energy ETF).

The following screen shots were taken about a half hour before the close.

Energy Futures



Currency Futures



Note that the Swiss Franc was green in spite of currency intervention. See Quantitative Easing Begins in Switzerland to Counteract Soaring Swiss Franc, Central Bank "Aims to Bring 3-Month LIBOR to 0%"; Gold Soars for details.
Grain Futures



Metal Futures



The $HUI was blasted 5.59% but Gold was down less than 1%. It continues to act like a currency. Silver continues to act like a derivatives plaything, down 7.2%.

Last evening in an interview with Chris Martenson I said "This is not a prediction Chris, but markets does not crash on overbought conditions, they crash on oversold conditions."

This is not a crash yet, but it could very well be the start of one.

 


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial
KEYWORDS: cashhoarding; deflation; feesfordeposits; hyperinflation; inflation; mellonbank
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1 posted on 08/05/2011 2:23:38 PM PDT by Kaslin
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To: thouworm; CutePuppy; ken5050; stephenjohnbanker

PING


2 posted on 08/05/2011 2:25:34 PM PDT by Liz ( A taxpayer voting for Obama is like a chicken voting for Col Sanders.)
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To: Kaslin

Don’t hear too many economists predicting deflation these days.


3 posted on 08/05/2011 2:30:44 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: Kaslin
The institutional money expects substantial deflation.

PIMCO expects a near Sovereign Default.

I expect both.

Buy and hold cash, both in the bank and under your mattress. I would say buy gold except it's too expensive right now...but it does protect against sovereign default.

Buy it when it crashes.

4 posted on 08/05/2011 2:30:44 PM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Mariner
I need someone to explain this to me in layman's terms.

How can this be with the US printing money by the wheelbarrow load?

5 posted on 08/05/2011 2:32:11 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: skeeter

Neither do I, just the opposite


6 posted on 08/05/2011 2:34:59 PM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: Kaslin

In its grand QE experiment the Fed pushed rates to zero, flooded the world with cash, then expected banks to lend and businesses to expand. Did it work?

I have been wondering about something. I do not have much stock market savvy....but what are the chances that a lot this money has left this country? I know that many companies have very good balance sheets but it seems to me they are talking about a lot more money than that. I only say this because the day after we passed the debt ceiling increase we managed to spend upwards of 400 billion. Where exactly did that go?


7 posted on 08/05/2011 2:37:13 PM PDT by marstegreg
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To: Kaslin

This is probably the most bizarre thing I have seen.

Why hoard cash? It will be like Confederate money when the whole thing collapses. Totally worthless.


8 posted on 08/05/2011 2:41:32 PM PDT by livius
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To: Liz

What say youse?


9 posted on 08/05/2011 2:49:18 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: livius
Why hoard cash? It will be like Confederate money when the whole thing collapses. Totally worthless.

Agreed - and why not take on debt if you can pay it back with worthless dollars?

I'm sure the advice being given out is based on wisdom, but I've not heard good explanations yet.

10 posted on 08/05/2011 2:52:19 PM PDT by The Duke
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To: Kaslin

Soros is hoarding cash too.

He doesn’t have confidence in his boy.


11 posted on 08/05/2011 3:14:18 PM PDT by NoLibZone (Life as Nancy Pelosi knows & wants it, must end, Life As Nancy Knows it is to raise Debt 10% annualy)
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To: marstegreg
" ... the day after we passed the debt ceiling increase we managed to spend upwards of 400 billion. Where exactly did that go?"

It was most probably used to pay back the unofficial "loans" the government had been taking. In order to avoid default, the government had been borrowing money from, among other places, the federal employee accounts in the Thrift Savings Plan. They had to put that money back and make good any lost interest. However, since most of the TSP funds went down in July, quite likely it ended up being the equivilant of a profitable short sale for the government.

12 posted on 08/05/2011 3:16:01 PM PDT by In Maryland ("The Federal Government is no longer one of limited and enumerated powers." -Justice Clarence Thomas)
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To: skeeter
That's what makes this such a bizarre economic landscape. Negative interest rates like this is a major indicator of deflation.

I suspect that what's happening here is that the Fed is printing more money than ever, but the level of economic activity has declined so much that the money isn't circulating with the same velocity anymore. So even in an "easy money" environment we still see some deflationary indicators such as negative interest rates.

13 posted on 08/05/2011 3:18:35 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: skeeter
Don’t hear too many economists predicting deflation these days,

Probably a good reason to put some money on it. All those people hoarding cash want to save it for when everything costs more. Right.

14 posted on 08/05/2011 3:18:51 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: Kaslin

less are working now than in June


15 posted on 08/05/2011 3:19:52 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Happiness)
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To: The Duke
That's some good advice. If you can afford to pay off a long-term fixed-rate loan, it's not a bad idea to go out and borrow money just for the sake of borrowing money.

At these interest rates, you could borrow money to speculate in commodities and other assets and make a fortune.

16 posted on 08/05/2011 3:20:40 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: Mariner

Since “Great Depression” has been taken we need to call what is about to happen the “Great Fall”.


17 posted on 08/05/2011 3:24:15 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Happiness)
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To: marstegreg
Let me lay out a scenario for you that helps explain what's going on here . . .

1. Imagine a person out there who bought a home in the early 1990s for about $250,000.

2. For the sake of this discussion, let's also assume that they either paid cash for the home or financed it with a mortgage that was fully paid off in less than 15 years. This means that the person owned the home in the mid-2000s "free and clear" with no mortgage on it.

3. Suppose this person sells the home in 2006 for $500,000 to a buyer who puts down $50,000 and gets a mortgage for the remaining $450,000. For the sake of this discussion, let's assume that the bank extended this loan under very easy terms with a low short-term interest rate and the fairly lax lending standards that were common at the time.

4. Let's also suppose that the person who sold the home for $500,000 executed some kind of transaction with the money shortly after the sale was done. Maybe they invested in some mutual funds, or paid cash for another home, or donated the money to his favorite charity.

5. Now fast-forward a few years to 2010. The person who bought the home in 2005 for $500,000 learns that the home will only appraise for $375,000.

6. Let's also suppose that the 2005 buyer still owes $425,000 on the original $450,000 mortgage. In effect, this person is "underwater" to the tune of $50,000 because he owes $50,000 more than the home is currently worth.

Now let's go back to #3 and #4 and review what transpired in 2005. The sale of this home and the financial transaction described in #4 would have counted as $1 million worth of economic activity -- including the sale of the home for $500,000 and the subsequent transaction(s) by the seller for another $500,000.

But the 2005 purchase price of the home ($500,000) was based on nothing more than a banking transaction that had no sound basis due to the easy lending standards at the time. Basically, this $450,000 was fabricated out of thin air because the money never "existed" until a bank extended the loan. If the current owner defaults on the mortgage and walks away from the home, the bank is left with a $375,000 home that was put up as collateral for what is now a $425,000 balance on the mortgage. And if the home is now worth only $375,000 then I would legitimately question how much of the original $500,000 sale (or the subsequent activity by the seller) ever really "existed" at all.

If the bank forecloses on the home and finds a buyer at a price of $375,000 now in 2011, then the bank absords a $50,000 loss on the deal. More importantly, there is only $375,000 for the bank to put to work elsewhere. So the $1 million worth of transactions in 2005 becomes $750,000 worth of transactions in 2011.

My suspicion is that most of this money the Fed is dumping into the economy is being picked up by the banks (in the form of low-interest deposits or bank purchases of U.S. Treasury bills) to prop up their balance sheets in order to offset these massive losses on their mortgages.

18 posted on 08/05/2011 3:44:53 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: Alberta's Child

THANK YOU!!!!! that was a very informative explanation. I can’t tell you how confusing it is listening to what everyone has been saying. Thank you for making sense out of something terribly confusing. Freeper are the best! How much do you know about the effects of an S&P downgrade? I suspect it is just a rumor, but it scares the heck out of me.


19 posted on 08/05/2011 4:16:00 PM PDT by marstegreg
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To: The Duke

“Agreed - and why not take on debt if you can pay it back with worthless dollars?

I’m sure the advice being given out is based on wisdom, but I’ve not heard good explanations yet. “

I’m with you...why pay back in REAL dollars. Just sit on a loan balance (assuming the interest rate is fixed) and then pay back with WORTHLESS dollars.

This deflation stuff only applies when the Fed isn’t out to wreck our currency.


20 posted on 08/05/2011 4:50:55 PM PDT by BobL (PLEASE READ: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2657811/posts)
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