Posted on 07/26/2011 10:27:26 AM PDT by smoothsailing
Seth Mandel
July 26, 2011
A pro-Rick Perry group is taking advantage of a new rule in the Iowa straw poll that allows voters to write in a candidate. GrowPAC will air radio ads in Iowa urging voters to write in Perry’s name in the Ames straw poll next month. The move would–if the ad works–help Perry in two ways: it would reveal public support for Perry without having to meet expectations, as he would if his name were officially on the ballot, and it will drain support from Perry’s conservative rivals.
It’s a smart strategy that won’t cost Perry a dime. In a second bit of good news for the Texas governor, a new poll of Republican primary voters in Florida has Perry leading all candidates. It was the first time Perry’s name was included in the poll, so it’s difficult to determine whether this represents a surge in popularity for Perry or simply an expression of support that has been there all along.
The poll is actually better for Perry than at first glance. Overall, Perry garners 16 percent, with Romney and Bachmann tied at 15 percent. But Sarah Palin is included in the poll, and she gets 13 percent–a not insignificant number in a poll this close. If Palin does not run, her support would be up for grabs, and could easily put both Perry and Bachmann ahead of Romney.
This is not bad news for Romney yet, however. As I wrote here, Romney leads the “Not Bachmann” coalition by a mile, consolidating support from party elites and business leaders. Ramesh Ponnuru has a good article up at National Review’s website making a similar argument, though he adds one note of caution about Perry: “He would be running to the right of anyone who has won the nomination in the last 26 years.”
The argument that Perry is too conservative to win the Republican nomination is an interesting one. Most of the criticism of Perry’s conservatism has focused on whether he is a viable general election candidate, not whether he’s too conservative for Republicans. I think Perry has already begun to mitigate this supposed weakness. He has been focusing his campaign on states’ rights, and even angered some social conservatives recently with his comments about New York’s new gay marriage law: “That is their call. If you believe in the 10th Amendment, stay out of their business.” As Don Rasmussen points out at the Daily Caller, Perry has been consistent about this. “Whether it’s gay marriage, medical marijuana, education or a host of other issues, Perry’s strong stance on the 10th Amendment allows him to have his cake and eat it too.”
That will partially allay concerns a Perry presidency would impose his views on the country as a whole. Something else that might make Perry’s conservatism less rattling is today’s USA Today front-page story: “Need a Job? Move to Texas.” The article details the state’s job growth under Perry’s governorship:
From June 2009 to June 2011 the state added 262,000 jobs, or half the USA’s 524,000 payroll gains, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Even by a more conservative estimate that omits states with net job losses, Texas’ advances make up 30 percent of the 1 million additions in the 34 states with net growth.
If Perry can successfully make his case on states’ rights and job creation, he may be able to peel off enough elite support to beat Romney. So far, voters seem to like it.
To all Palin supporters in Iowa. Get to the Straw Poll and start writing in.
Unless Christie runs it is Perry’s for the taking.
Perry’s speech that I watched, it was about a month ago, troubled me. He did not sound ready for prime time. I admit I’m not a big supporter of his governorship, but he is a good campaigner.
I worry about his stump speech and performance on the higher level.
Perry rejecting even the tepid Arizona illegal immigration law is a VERY sour note to my ears, sort of like the Dukakis marching band on the Rush Limbaugh show. Bob
I’m not sure how his style will be received as well.
What I’m seeing now is very favorable press on a National level, almost as if the MSM is promoting his candidacy.
You're seeing what you want to see because there have been plenty of attacks on him.
If he can speak without a teleprompter, his stump speech should improve with repetition and become more polished over time. If it doesn't, then he will fail as a candidate. Only Democrats get away with being idiots.
Perry’s stance on immigration is a non-starter for me. I realize he has constituents in Texas he has to play to, but you are not going to sell this to the majority of America.
Amnesty is the call for for 30 million more to come and squat until the next round of shamnesty.
Perry will run; be very abundantly financed; will be the 800 pound gorilla on the primary ticket; and will be the only candidate with enough support to slay Buckwheat.
Perry/Christie looks good from here.
ep, he does love all that cheap labor! And is ready for the 12 lane NAFTA Highway. Globalist Rick Perry? Just say NO!
I don’t think that’s the case on a National level. I’ve seen favorable articles from the Washington Post, Hot Air, Politico and Fox News just since yesterday. I know the local (Texas) print media has been far more critical.
Rick Perry Scares the Heck Out of the Washington Establishment
In the transcript I've linked to above, Rush addresses Perry's stance on immigration and other matters.
I sure hope you’re right. Getting that poser out of the White House is Job One IMO.
If he gets the nomination, I hope you’re right.
For reference, here’s the speech I’m referring to:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9dUMJyzjtA
Since Pawlenty and Bachman appear to be battling each other rather than running for themselves, Perry would be a glimmer of hope. Now, if the Republicans start attacking him and making jerks out of themselves, we’re just building that cakewalk for Obama. It would be refreshing to have some decency within our own party and not stoop to the levels of Reid, Pelosi and Obama.
I certainly understand what you mean, I’ve watched most of that speech before, and it wasn’t a stemwinder by any stretch. It was passable, and I’ve certainly seen far worse, but that’s about it.
I have read that that speech was far less than his best effort. Apparently his usual style is to move about across the stage and not stay anchored to the podium, gesturing with his arms and hands and only occasionally referring to notes.
But here he came across as a bit stiff and scripted and he gripped the podium too much. He needs to avoid all that.
But like I said, we’ll see if he can improve, he’ll have to if he intends to run and win.
I think what you’re saying may have something to do with the fact that Perry is polling well and attracting attention.
I recently read that only 55% of likely Republican voters are satisfied with the current declared candidates.
Perry (and certainly Palin) does, at least for now, represent that glimmer of hope you speak of.
Good post.
I want to see him get in, Palin get in, hell, everybody get in. I want to see them in action, giving speeches, building organizations, debating, describing and defending competing positions, being attacked, responding, etc.
In order to judge them and so that they can grow and improve under fire.
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