Posted on 06/16/2011 2:20:48 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Rasmussen released the second part of its GOP primary polling this morning, this time concerning those potential candidates not in the race. The survey of likely Republican primary voters does not indicate a massive desire for more candidates to jump into the race, but support for bids by Rick Perry and Rudy Giuliani exceeds opposition. That isn’t true for Sarah Palin:
A plurality of Republican primary voters think it would be good for Texas Governor Rick Perry to jump into the party’s presidential race and bad for the party if former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin joined the field. They are evenly divided about former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 36% of Likely GOP Primary Voters think it would be good for Republicans if Palin enters the race, but 45% believe it would be bad for the party. Just 11% say it would have no impact. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Thirty-six percent (36%) also feel it would be good for the GOP if Perry enters the race. Only 21% say it would be bad for the party, while 26% think it would have no impact. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.
As for Giuliani, best known for his leadership in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, 38% of likely primary voters believe it would be good for their party if he joins the presidential race. Nearly as many (35%), however, see his candidacy as bad for the GOP. Nineteen percent (19%) say it would have no impact.
Earlier, commenters on the first Rasmussen release wondered why the pollster didn’t include potential candidates in the survey, and this answers the question. None of the three got above 36% in demand for a run. Given the lack of any other potential candidates, this appears to bolster the argument that likely primary voters see the current field as sufficient.
The internals don’t look good for Palin in this instance. In almost all demographics, opposition to a primary bid outstrips support. Among men, it’s a 42/42 tie, but among women, it’s a double-digit deficit at 28/49. Palin trails in every age demographic and loses a majority among 40-49YOs, 34/51; she also loses a majority among independents planning to vote in the GOP primaries, 34/53. Black voters (53/26), those unsure of their ideology (70/27), and Tea Party members (49/33) support the idea of a Palin candidacy. Evangelicals are the only religious denomination to support a Palin run, but at a surprisingly low 44/38 mark. Palin also picks up support from lower-income levels below $40K and the $60-75K demo, but loses the other income demos.
The numbers for Perry and Giuliani aren’t bad, but they’re not “draft”-level figures, either. A Perry run would be seen positively across the board, but not terribly enthusiastically. He actually gets a majority of Tea Party voters (53/17), scoring better among them than Palin, and a majority among black voters, as does Giuliani, who also gets a majority of 30-39YOs. Otherwise, support for any of the three is rather tepid, at least at this point.
One interesting point: Black voters are enthusiastic about all three potential bids, by a majority in each case. They don’t appear to be satisfied with the current field.
I tend to respect you, LS, but how large a proportion of your state's vote IS the college Republican crowd?
(And what are you doing to educate the young skulls full of mush in your charge? Do you sponsor the College Republicans on your campus? Could you arrange for a screening of "The Undefeated" ?)
Those who have graduated since Teh One took office, are going to landslide against him, even if they have to write in Elmer Fudd.
Cheers!
Just saying...
What?
You have no idea how Rasmussen polls meassure what is happening 8 to 12 months before a primary vote. There is no way to confirm if these types of polls, so far from an election, are reliable.
And I say that even though I see that Mitt, Bachmann and all the rest performed so poorly in his poll.
NYT and Washington Post email much? Or Paul Revere scandal where she was right and it was hushed up?
Wait until she declares. You trolls have about as much chance as an eight-year-old's sandcastle in the face of a Category 5 hurricane.
Cheers!
Why “nice try”?
Cheers!
Well, here’s my take on it Rita,OK? (I just had to do that...) The last couple of POTUS election cycles, candidates have been getting in earlier and earlier, and it’s absurd. “ =========
You make a reasoned arguement and I get that. Also it is very expensive to get in at the rooster’s first crow, but given we have RINO ROMNEY already with plenty of name recognition end running considerable cash in populated states, picking his states under the radar, collecting the endorsements already, he is building a machine that requires some attention before momentum becomes an issue.
This is why Rove is pushing Bachman, before his nemesis’ Palin and Perry decide. He wants them marginalized and their supporters splintered between the three of them to advance Romney. That’s the way I guess it.
Last time Romney ran he started figuring out we’re just not that into him, and bailed.
Took his money and went home.
We need to try some of that tough love again this time. Remember he hates to spend money.
Push back. HARD.
Fortunately not everyone is as close minded as you appear to be.
no
Perry tried to force STD vaccinations on underaged girls in Texas, and was a supporter of the Trans Texas Corridor (expressway for illegal immigrants).” =====
I have addressed that fifteen times, including on this very thread.
Sarah did a great job for 24 months. I’m cool with that. Look, Perry has 10 years on her, was doing “Big Oil” as a kid and gets the conservatives in the Governor’s Association. The point is to attract more than the bots in the base, since the base will elect no one?
That is for sure.
Past PDS, into PES. Palin Emasculation Syndrome.
Some men are very intimidated by a strong woman so they strike out from the darkness of their hearts (souls?) to compensate, and some women get real catty when another woman gets attention.
Governor Palin does a pretty good job of staying above the fray.
What’s with the “strong woman” meme?
Palin’s not a strong woman. Palin is a woman. Feminine, patriotic, confident, and kind.
She’s good. That’s the bottom line, and what drives to many bonkers.
She is good.
And they trash her movie sight unseen, dismissing it as an undisguised propaganda piece.
If you were honest -- which you are not -- you'd already have read the reviews from MSM sources, including top female libs who left the screening in tears over how badly Palin has been treated.
But you are just a troll.
Looking forward to your ZOT in the upcoming purge.
Cheers!
I think all the “Palin can’t win” talk is stupid. I’m also not worried about Palin being a negative influence if she decides to run for President.
I think anybody who manages to win the nomination has a reasonable chance of winning. Heck, even John McCain was within striking distance of Obama for a short time before he totally screwed up “handling” the economic meltdown — in one week managing to convince a majority of America that picking “the guy with experience” wasn’t really all that much help.
And if Palin doesn’t win the nomination, I really don’t think the Palin supporters are going to lock themselves in their bathrooms and cry themselves to sleep. A lot of them claim they’ll vote 3rd party, but 4 years of Obama has, I hope taught us all one valuable lesson — elections matter. We now know the answer to the question “how much damage could they really do in 4 years”.
So for now, once again I guess one of my tasks is to mediate, to keep us from getting so angry about other people’s candidates that we can’t bring ourselves to support them.
After all, SOMEONE is going to win the nomination. It will likely be a person who is in the race, and someone who we have all gotten upset at some time or another. It would be nice if we haven’t managed to immolate every one of our candidates before the general election starts — especially if it’s in the defense of someone who never becomes a candidate.
” Last time Romney ran he started figuring out we’re just not that into him, and bailed.
We need to try some of that tough love again this time. Remember he hates to spend money. “ ========
I hope you’re right. I just resent giving him the field and have felt we need to run early and run hard against him before the media sells him as the nominee to the Independents. I don’t care who stops him, but certainly hope it is someone who can win the general election. I want to hear from Perry and see how he does at knocking out Romney with Independents who, I believe, elect the next prez.
There are strong men, and weak men. Poofters I call them
There are strong women, and weak women.
Sarah Palin is a strong woman.
You described why after commenting that she isn’t.
Keep the faith.
And keep him spending. :) That is the key.
Well yes.
There is strength beyond all other, in being good.
Guess we’re not really disagreeing. :)
The base (once they know the truth) will sit out for Perry as they did for McCain.
Palin hasn't begun to campaign yet: and if truth be known she is neck-and-neck with Obaama already.
Wait till she turns on the engine.
Cheers!
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