Posted on 06/15/2011 7:42:13 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
A bad poll for everyone involved, including Mitt. Granted, he’s gained nine points since the last time the Journal surveyed the race (Huckabee was still in play at the time), but only 45 percent of Republicans say they’re happy with the field as is. Four years ago at this time, that number was 73 percent. Just 24 percent say they’re confident in Romney’s ability to be president; in 2007, even John Edwards hit 31 percent. Clearly the base wants more options and the Palin/Cain/Perry constituencies aren’t natural defectors to Romney, so one of those three is bound to start consolidating the anti-Mitt faction as we get closer to the primaries. Bachmann, meanwhile, finishes with just three percent if Palin/Cain/Perry are in the race and at 11 percent if they aren’t. Disappointing, but since the polling ended on Monday, her star turn at the debate hasn’t been priced in yet. The big loser is Pawlenty at just six percent, two points behind Gingrich(!) and tied for seventh with … Rick Santorum. And if you pull Palin, Perry, and Cain out of the field, T-Paw finishes dead last. I know, I know — “it’s still early” — but read Mike Murphy’s post from yesterday. It’s not as early as you think, especially with Perry poised to jump in and become the “not Romney” in the race. Pawlenty needs to show donors that he’s worth investing in, but polling behind Ron Paul and Newt shows them the opposite.
It’s not all sunshine and candy canes for Perry either. Behold:
We like to goof on The One for blaming Bush for his problems, but the reason he does that is because it works. People remember who was president when the financial crisis struck, they remember having utterly lost confidence in that guy for various reasons during his second term, and they’re prepared to cut O a wide, wide berth on the economy because of it. That’s Perry’s misfortune, of course, because not only does he hold Bush’s old job, but superficially he sounds a bit like him when he talks and even has some biographical overlap (they were both military pilots). We’d all like to think his record of job creation in Texas will immunize him from Bush comparisons, but don’t underestimate the ability of the low-information voter to draw the wrong conclusion from a simple, endlessly repeated set of facts. More:
Those numbers will move as we get closer to the election — note how the number who say he inherited the economy plunged as the midterms approached — but after two and a half years of dreariness, they’re remarkably resilient in his favor.
But wait, it gets worse:
Turning to Republicans’ proposal to overhaul Medicare — transforming the government-run health program into a system where future seniors receive a subsidy or voucher to help them purchase private insurance — 31 percent say it’s a bad idea, which is up nine points since April.
Just 22 percent say it’s a good idea, which is virtually unchanged from last month. And 45 percent say they have no opinion.
That number’s not quite kosher insofar as the poll question describes Ryan’s plan as a voucher system even though it isn’t exactly. The sample favors Democrats by eight points too so the hard numbers here aren’t quite as bad as they look, but the trend is worrisome if nothing else. The Journal described Ryan’s plan as a voucher system last time too and opposition was nine points lower, which suggests the GOP really is losing the messaging war. Also this:
In other words, not only does O have a viable back-up campaign narrative with “blame Bush for the economy,” he may have a very viable lead narrative in Mediscaring. See what I mean about it being a bad poll? Exit question: How can Tim Pawlenty still be trailing a guy whose favorable rating dropped 18 points in two months?
Also Romney because of his own religion, wont be able to even utter the name of Jeremiah Wright.
I will be the most surprised person on the planet if the LSM girl Bachmann, does not get a huge fake phony bounce. I predicted that she would get rave reviews from LSM/Rep establishment prior to the debate taking place.
They are going to push Bachmann so hard and fast it will make your heads spin. They feel she is their last hope to bring down Palin,and they are going to manufacture opinion with whatever it takes, just hope they do not fool Rep primary voters?
For sure I hope to be proven wrong!!!!!!!
The WSJ is in NYC.
NYC is the capital of liberalism in the US.
They may be ‘conservative’ when it comes to money and investing and ‘pro-business’, but they are still populated with liberals and RINOs...............
These GOP preference numbers are based on 244 respondents—that’s completely bogus!
1000 total respondents
84% of whom say they are registered voters
29% of those registered voters who say they expect to vote in the GOP primary
840 x .29 = 243.6
I wouldn’t count Gingrich and TPaw as conservative, and many Paul voters won’t translate to conservative votes either.
It’s nice to be optimistic, but good to be realistic too.
I'm in Iowa and this thing is wide open. I make a point of talking to people about this and they are undecided.
At this point it should be wide open.
People don’t pay attention to ‘politics’ until after the World Series...............or so it’s said................
You are so right. I have two close friends who will not be supporting either Palin or Bachmann at the caucus because they are women. Like it or not, this is the way it is. However, both say if either one is the nominee, they will vote for them in the general as they recognize the fact that a Republican woman is far preferable to Obama.
I spend some time in a vacation area. I go out of my way to ask people in social settings how they see the next election shaping up. Talked to a couple from Vegas. I think they were nominal dems, probably thought Clinton was okey. Did not vote for McCain or Obama, voted NONE of the above. They think if the Pubbies nominate Romney, he wins. They think other nominees will loose to Obama and aren’t worth considering.
We spend time on forums and with like minded people and that perhaps shades our view.
I am not counting the candidates as conservative. I am counting their support as mainly conservative.
The interesting question to me is what are the Paul supporters in the GOP. Where do they do if to anyone when he drops his campaign.
Well, actually, in Iowa, we’re focusing on the Straw Poll in Aug. Last week alone, I wavered between three different candidates. I want to defeat Obama.
I agree. I suppose if all these polls show Romney is the front runner, he probably is but I know of not one person that is supporting him in Iowa. He chose to skip the Straw Poll. That may be a risky strategy.
Straw polls arent worth......well, straw.
They are not indicative of reality.
Focus instead on the candidate of your personal choice, then try and convince everybody you know why that person is the best. Study, learn, achieve.................
I would get behind a candidate if I knew who I want. I don't.
If "we" is FR....
"we" were not able to keep Dubya from winning the nomination in 2000.
"we" were not able to keep McCain from winning the nomination in 2008.
There are lots of independents and Democrats who get to vote in the GOP primary just like "we" do. Until that changes, get ready to bend over again.
Why do you think he’ll drop his campaign?
That’s why I said study.
Check each candidate’s background.
Who are their friends and associates?
Tell me who their friends are and I’ll tell you what kind of person he/she is................
You have a point. A friend and I devised one method to eliminate potential nominees—we consider the kook factor. Which nominees have a large number of kooks supporting them.
Kook factor! ThaT’s a good one!...............explain Ron PAUL AND DENNIS KUCINICH!.........
Well, you hit one we have eliminated but of course Kucinich isn’t a Republican so we didn’t have to worry about him.
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